What Will the Base Model MacBook Price Be on Black Friday?

It’s right around that time of the year; we’re counting down to Black Friday, November 27th, and chatter is high on the base model MacBook; what price will it be on Black Friday? Amidst the ongoing global RAMageddon.

Case in point: Apple marked up the price of the Neo by $100 (from $599 to $699); the 13-inch MacBook Air saw an even higher jump from $1,099 to $1,299. So, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to lean on Black Friday for some cost savings, and the best prediction markets, like Kalshi, are chiming in. Here’s more.

The Base Model MacBook's Recent Price Trends

In case you missed it, it’s RAMageddon, and Apple itself is not spared from the global memory chip crisis (high memory and component costs); it wouldn’t be far-fetched to say they’re getting the worst end of it, as data centres usurp the supply available. The result: sticker prices, even for the base-model MacBook Neo, are going up as they’re forced to pass some of the costs on to consumers. And the best prediction market sites, like Kalshi, are taking notice, with the ticker “MacBook base model price on Black Friday.”

As for the Black Friday cross-section come November 27th (and the surrounding week through Cyber Monday), third-party retailers, like Costco, Amazon, and other outlets, drive much of the MacBook discounts. Apple’s own Black Friday promotion typically throws in gift cards rather than direct price cuts; still, this could be a first to move inventory. Currently, the MSRP for the base model as of the June 25th hike is at $699 (this was previously $599).

Key Factors Why We Could See Lower Pricing for the MacBook Neo

It has to be said that an Apple.com MSRP discount on Black Friday is unheard of; historically, the brand has opted for gift cards that apply to a wide-range of products. Still, there’s always room for a “first” and here’s why:

They May Pass on Some Savings

Whilst in the “lower percentile likelihood,” should the global RAM shortage get a relief, hand-in-hand with sustained price drops, Apple could theoretically pass some savings on. After all, this is what spurred the June markup.

A “break of Tradition”

Historically speaking, Apple had non-price responses on Black Friday, but we could see a “first” to move inventory beyond solely relying on gifts. Say, a measured, limited-time MSRP price drop that could marry up with the aggressive discounts retailers run.

Product-Cycle Clearance

Lastly, Apple has done it before and could do it again; they’ve occasionally run marginal discounts to clear inventory ahead of product-cycle refresh.

Reasons Why a MacBook Neo Price Cut Is Unlikely

Now for the contrarian position: Apple has hardly, if ever, departed from its pricing discipline, and it might not be any different come this Black Friday, as shown below:

Apple’s Year-On-Year Pricing Discipline

• Historically speaking, Apple.com has rarely, if ever, reduced its official MSRP; it’s essential to preserving the brand premium and the perception that products are regularly discounted.

Recent (June) Price Hikes Are Still in Effect

Owing to RAMageddon, the MacBook Neo recently saw a ~$100 price hike; it’s now at $699, from $599 and they’re still in effect. All in all, an abrupt discount would “poke holes” in their rationale.

Lastly, Apple Could Opt to Carry on Their Gift-Card Model

It has worked well from time immemorial, and there’s no need to change it now.

How to Trade This Question at Kalshi

Now that you’re well caught up, you too can join in on tech predictions at Kalshi, like the “What Will the Base Model MacBook Price Be on Black Friday?” Here’s a snapshot of the live contract.

What Will the Base Model MacBook Price Be on Black Friday?

There you have it: Black Friday has historically been the window when retailers offer marginal cost-saving, so will Apple now join in the trend? Recent stats suggest otherwise; still, there’s always room for change. If this is well within your lane, click the banners here to grab our Kalshi bonus and lock in your pick ahead of time.