What Are Esports Prediction Market Sites?
Esports prediction market apps and sites are platforms that allow you to buy, sell, and trade event contracts to predict the outcomes of various esports games. For example, a popular market is forecasting the match winner. These markets are formed around a simple question, usually asking who is going to win a tournament or even get the first kill. What you do is buy the event contract that links to the outcome you think will happen.
The prices are much more than just the price of the contract, as they also fluctuate as more people trade contracts. As such, the price also reflects the implied probability and the market view. For instance, if a Yes contract is priced at $0.65, this indicates an approximate chance of 65% of that outcome happening. If you buy a contract that is linked to the eventual winner, your contract will settle at $1. However, if you get it wrong and predict incorrectly, your contract will settle at $0 and instantly become worthless.
What’s great about prediction markets is that you don’t need to keep hold of your contract until the end of the match or tournament. Instead, you can sell or trade your contract with other users. This is usually done to either pocket an early profit by selling for more than you bought it for or to minimize loss if you now think your contract is going to lose, but spot a chance to sell.
Let’s Compare the Best Sites for Esports Prediction Markets
Before we walk you through our handpicked esports
prediction market sites, here’s a quick comparison so you know what to expect, right off the bat:
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
Top 3 Best Esports Prediction Market Sites
Now that you have had a glance at what’s on offer at top-tier esports prediction market sites, we will now give you a deeper overview to help you decide which works for you.
Kalshi - Perfect for Total Beginners
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Fully CFTC-regulated exchange
- Diverse markets including sports, politics, and economics
- Supports PayPal, Venmo, and Crypto deposits
- Highly rated mobile app for iOS and Android
- Trading fees apply to both makers and takers
- Bank withdrawals can take several business days
Kalshi is one of the most beginner-friendly prediction market sites that we highly recommend if you are just starting. The website has clear organization, and everything you need to know about each event is on one dedicated page. When you select a market, you will be given live updates, an easy-to-read graph detailing the top predictions, and clear rules. As Kalshi shares its source ahead of time, all outcomes are 100% verifiable.
As for esports, Kalshi features some of the most popular games, including League of Legends, Dota 2, Valorant, and Rainbow Six. We found around 306+ markets during our visit, with 102+ of these being for CS2. You can find event contracts tied to various outcomes, including map winners, total maps, match winners, and futures.
Polymarket - A Dedicated Esports Hub
Pros and Cons of Polymarket
- Licensed by CFTC
- Covers various real-life events
- Dedicated mobile app
Polymarket features the most esports, offering 12 of the most popular esports around. With coverage on the likes of Valorant, Dota 2, CS2, and League of Legends, there’s something to suit everyone. Plus, we found the likes of Call of Duty and Honor of Kings, which aren’t always featured, so it was great to see. There are plenty of live and pre-game outcomes to browse, with a core focus on props, such as season winners and the winning region.
When you first land on the esports hub, you are instantly greeted with a livestream of the most popular event that’s happening right now, giving you a taste of what others are enjoying. What struck us is that there’s a unique leaderboard taking center stage on the site, which fosters a sense of community and light-hearted competition. The leaderboards rank the users with the most profit and loss, while also crowning those who have the biggest wins of the month.
OG - Simple Approach to Trading
OG: Pros and Cons
- Secure and regulated by the CFTC
- No user limiting on trades
- Wide range of market categories
- Great National Championship offer
- Sports contracts are restricted in some states
OG has one thing in mind - simplicity. While there are only 3 esports covered here, you will find the most popular games in the US, including League of Legends, Counter-Strike 2, and Dota 2. Dota 2 has the widest coverage, with around 28+ markets available. You can find both live and pre-game outcomes to predict, giving you plenty of choice to suit your preferences.
If you are a total beginner who’s looking to try out trading for the first time or just prefers to keep things low-key, OG delivers. With simple moneyline markets being the main event here, there’s nothing too complex to learn.
Prediction Trading is facilitated through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA). Foris DAX Inc. and Foris Inc. (d/b/a OG ) provide access to CDNA, a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to trade derivatives in accordance with CDNA's rules and regulations.
A Deeper Understanding of How Event Contracts Work
Trading event contracts that relate to esports games start by answering a question, just like with
sports prediction markets. Depending on the prediction market site you join, the questions will vary and be based around outcomes like:
- Match winner
- Overall winner of the tournament
- Map winner
- First kill/blood
- Winning region
The above list isn’t fully exhaustive, but it does give you an idea of how in-depth the outcomes are. It’s then up to you to predict the winner and to buy the event contract that’s linked to your prediction. For example, if the question asks, “Will Team A win today’s match at 5 pm?” and you think they will, you will buy the Yes contract. Likewise, if you think another team will win, you would buy the No contract.
All event contracts range between $0.01 and $0.99, depending on the probability. So, a contract that’s priced at $0.25 would suggest a chance of 25% for that outcome happening. If you buy that contract and the outcome is correct, you will receive a $1 settlement. This means that you would get a profit of $0.75, before fees.
Now, the above is all based on a simple Yes/No contract format. Some esports prediction market sites also offer multiple-choice. That said, each option will have its own Yes and No contract prices. Here’s an example of how this would work in practice:
| Poor Rangers vs. BetBoom Team | Chance | Yes Contract | No Contract |
Different Types of Contracts You Will Find at Esports Prediction Market Apps
You won’t always find the same markets on all prediction market sites, as they each focus on something different. For example, some might focus on match winners, while others focus on props. Let’s take a look at some of the most popular markets you will find:
- Match Winner
- Predict the winning team of a specific match.
- Tournament Winner
- The team that wins the overall tournament.
- Map Winner
- The winner of a specific map.
- Qualifiers
- Forecast which team will qualify for the next stage in the competition.
- First Kill
- The player who will get the first kill (or first blood) of the match.
- Player Props
- Based on the individual performance of specific players within a match or tournament.
Tips on How to Find the Best Prediction Market Site for You
When it comes to finding the best prediction market site for you, it can be a tough decision. No prediction market site is made equal, so they will all appeal to different interests. For instance, while one site will focus on a specific esports, another will focus on certain markets. So, here’s a list of features to look out for when you are searching for your next esports prediction market app:
🎮 Availability of your favorite esports
If you have a core interest, it’s no good signing up to a prediction market site if they don’t offer your favorite. Check that your favorite esports are listed by searching through the categories and markets. You can also check for market depth, too, to make sure that the types of markets offered appeal to you.
Watching the action unfold live is part of the excitement. If being able to watch the match in real-time matters to you, make sure that there’s decent coverage available on the site. You can do this by browsing your favorite esports and markets and tracking how many come with live markets and live streaming. While it will vary depending on the types of events that are on at the time, it will give you a strong idea of what you can expect.
đź’° Clear pricing layout
The contract prices should be easy to read, leaving you without having to guess what you will actually be paying. While the prices can shift fast, you should have a clear understanding of the different contract prices and the implied probability, so you can understand what you could potentially win or lose.
🔍 Transparent fee structure
All prediction market sites have a different fee structure, so make sure you have a deep understanding of how it works. While some sites have a fixed-fee structure, others will vary depending on the price of the contract, for example. Either way, make sure you know exactly how it works.
Pros and Cons of Esports Event Trading
Trading event contracts that are tied to esports outcomes is just like any other category at prediction market sites. While there are plenty of upsides for fans of this type of trading, there are also some downsides to weigh up:
Pros and Cons
- Real-time updates
- Verifiable outcomes
- Deep market coverage
- Clear $1 settlement
- Esports availability varies
Conclusion: Wrapping Up Our Thoughts on Trading Contracts on Esports Outcomes
Prediction market sites with esports coverage let you get involved in your favorite esports in a different way. By predicting the outcome of specific questions, you stand the chance of winning a $1 settlement. Depending on the site you join, you will find a different list of esports and markets, including live and pre-match contracts. We have tested and handpicked 3 of the best sites around, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and OG. While they each work a little differently, they appeal to different interests, giving everyone a shot at getting involved.
If any of our handpicked prediction market sites have caught your eye, why not tap the promotional banners on this page to get signed up? In just a few minutes, you could be browsing your favorite esports and sinking your teeth into some of the most exciting markets around.
Our Esports Prediction Market Sites of Choice
Esports Prediction Market Sites FAQs
🎯 Are Esports Prediction Market Probabilities Accurate?
The probabilities are implied probabilities that represent the opinions of the traders, so they aren’t guaranteed to happen. The prices and probabilities will shift as the traders react to any news, announcements, and in-game events. While prediction markets are known for being more accurate than polls and surveys, they can get it wrong.
🏆 Which Are the Best Esports on Prediction Market Sites?
The most popular esports featured include games like Dota 2, League of Legends, and Counter-Strike 2. However, you can find plenty more esports, including Call of Duty, Rainbow Six, Rocket League, and more.
📝 Who’s Eligible to Join a Prediction Market Site for Esports Trading?
This entirely depends on the prediction market site you have in mind. Each site has a different minimum age requirement and restricted states, for instance. Make sure you read the T&Cs before you attempt to create an account, to confirm that you are an eligible user.
đź’Ľ Can I Sell My Event Contract to Other Traders?
Yes, of course. You can buy, sell, and trade your event contracts up until the match is finished and the outcome is verified.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Ryan Leaver
as part of our fact-checking process.
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