Commanders vs. Chiefs prediction: Kansas City favored to win MNF Week 8, 2025

The Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Commanders are scheduled to meet in Week 8 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday, starting at 8:15PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Chiefs as the most likely winner of the Commanders vs. Chiefs game.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including touchdown scorer projections, best bets and player prop picks.

Commanders vs. Chiefs prediction: Who will win, cover the spread?

Since our Commanders-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Monday's NFL matchup between the Commanders and Chiefs 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Chiefs an 82% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 8 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 28-18.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Commanders and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 8 straight up picks.

Commanders vs. Chiefs odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Commanders	Chiefs
Spread	+10.5 (-105)	-10.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+500	-650
Total	o47.5 (-122)	u47.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Commanders vs. Chiefs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Chiefs -10.5	-105
Moneyline	Commanders	+500
Total	Under 47.5	+100

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders moneyline.

Commanders vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Rashee Rice is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Rice a 48.0% chance of scoring a TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	36.1%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	29.2%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	28.9%
Zach Ertz (TE)	28.3%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	20.0%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	48.0%
Travis Kelce (TE)	40.2%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	34.4%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	32.9%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	21.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

Player	First TD Probability
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)	7.2%
Deebo Samuel (WR)	5.6%
Terry McLaurin (WR)	5.5%
Zach Ertz (TE)	5.4%
Marcus Mariota (QB)	3.6%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Rashee Rice (WR)	11.1%
Travis Kelce (TE)	8.7%
Xavier Worthy (WR)	7.2%
Isiah Pacheco (RB)	6.8%
Kareem Hunt (RB)	4.1%

Commanders vs Chiefs player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 8 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is projected for 211 passing yards. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for a whopping 274 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Marcus Mariota (WAS)	211
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	274

Commanders rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	53
Marcus Mariota	35
Chris Rodriguez	15

Chiefs rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Isiah Pacheco	52
Patrick Mahomes	25
Kareem Hunt	21

Commanders receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Terry McLaurin	51
Deebo Samuel	49
Zach Ertz	36
Jaylin Lane	18
Luke McCaffrey	18

Chiefs receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	73
Xavier Worthy	53
Travis Kelce	44
Hollywood Brown	30
JuJu Smith-Schuster	21

Commanders vs. Chiefs game-day updates and essential details

The NFL Week 8 matchup between the Chiefs and Commanders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Monday, October 27, 2025
• Time: 8:15PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 8 of the NFL season.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Commanders vs. Chiefs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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