Three High Value NFL Touchdown Props for Wild Card Weekend: Bet on these players to find the end zone

The NFL Playoffs begin with Wild Card Weekend, kicking off on Saturday, January 10 with Rams vs. Panthers and concluding on Monday, January 11 with Texans vs. Steelers.

Since the Wild Card teams were set, our NFL Predictions have identified the best NFL bets and NFL player props to make in all six games of the first round, and we're utilizing our NFL touchdown predictions to find the players with the most value to find the end zone.

What makes these NFL touchdown picks so appealing is not only the betting value in each pick, with the Dimers model tagging each bet as more likely to hit than the implied probability in the sportsbook odds, but the number of ways to utilize this data during Wild Card Weekend, from high value straight bets to a longshot touchdown parlay.

Below, we break down all three picks and multiple ways to use this information to place data-backed bets this weekend.

Bet these NFL touchdown scorers during Wild Card Weekend

These three players each project with a high probability to score a touchdown in their respective games, however, our model identifies significant value on a longshot bet of each player to score not one touchdown, but two, which is where we've identified the primary value on each.

This data can be used in a variety of ways - straight wagers, a reference point for a three-leg Anytime TD parlay featuring these players at +930 odds, or a two-touchdown round robin.

The last time we highlighted players with this kind of value, Derrick Henry scored four touchdowns and Omarion Hampton scored one, cashing one straight bet of 2+ touchdowns as well as the two-leg anytime TD parlay.

1. Josh Jacobs (Packers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Packers vs. Bears
• Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Soldier Field

First up is Packers RB Josh Jacobs when Green Bay travels to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears in the second of Saturday's Wild Card matchups.

Jacobs is our most likely player to score by a wide margin as his 56.5% probability ranks not only second of the entire weekend, but is nearly 20% higher than the next most likely player in this game, Bears RB D'Andre Swift.

Jacobs' fair odds would be -130 for an Anytime TD, so there's slim value at -120 for those exploring the Anytime TD market, while his 19.6% probability to score twice implies fair odds of +410 for a sizable edge at +500 odds.

The Bears' run defense improved in the second half, but Jacobs still managed 80+ yards and a touchdown in their first meeting in Week 14, and looks to be better rested from the nagging knee injury that hampered him in their Week 16 contest.

Jacobs scored 14 touchdowns this season, more than the next two Packers players combined (Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson) and should be heavily featured in Saturday's game.

2. Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Bills vs. Jaguars
• Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: EverBank Stadium

We move to the Sunday slate with our most likely touchdown scorer of the entire weekend, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey's 17 total touchdowns ranked third in the NFL during the regular season and is the highest mark among all players in the postseason, and now gets some of the shortest odds he's had all season.

At a 58.2% probability for an Anytime TD, McCaffrey's fair odds would be -140, again giving us a very slim edge at his odds of -135, with his 2 TD probability of 22.0% offering a sizable value at +500 odds (should be +355).

CMC was held out of the endzone five total times this season, and just once (Week 18 vs. Seattle) since Brock Purdy's return from injury - the 49ers lost three of those games.

McCaffrey scoring is critical to San Francisco's success, especially in a playoff meeting with Philadelphia, who was far more beatable on the ground with the 22nd-ranked rushing defense compared to their 8th-ranked passing defense that allowed the third-fewest touchdowns in Weeks 9-18.

3. Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Texans vs. Steelers
• Date: Monday, January 12, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

For the final touchdown prop, we move to the lone Monday game between the Texans and Steelers, looking for Pittsburgh RB Jaylen Warren to capitalize on his touchdown value.

Warren turned in a successful season with 8 total touchdowns and just under 1,300 scrimmage yards, both career highs and doubling his previous best scoring mark. While he split time with fellow RB Kenneth Gainwell, Warren had nearly twice as many carries, while still seeing 2-3 targets per game.

Five of his touchdowns came in the red zone, one of Houston's few defensive weaknesses, where they allowed a 56.8% opponent conversion rate.

Warren gets a 34.7% Anytime TD probability from the Dimers model, tied for the highest on the Steelers, and implying fair odds of +190, while he's at +235 on DraftKings. His 7.0% probability for 2+ touchdowns suggests a fair price of +1330, giving a big edge at his best odds of +2200.

It's worth noting that Warren missed the Steelers' practice on Thursday with an undisclosed illness. Should he miss time, Gainwell would be the Dimers model's next best value, though he only gets an edge to score once (34.8% at +215), not twice like Warren.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Touchdown Picks and Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, we recommend betting each of the 2+ touchdown props as a straight bet. This is the best way to capitalize on the betting value in each individual bet.

Another method, albeit at lower odds, is to bet on each of McCaffrey, Jacobs and Warren to each score one touchdown in a three-leg anytime touchdown parlay at +969 odds on DraftKings, where you can also use a 30% boost for a bigger payout.

For the highest risk but also the biggest payout, bettors can play all three of the multi-touchdown props into a round robin parlay with the combinations of x2 and x3.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

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