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Week 17 NFL Saturday Touchdown Picks: Bet these players to score in Texans-Chargers, Ravens-Packers
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
It's NFL Saturday in Week 17 and we've got a pair of touchdown props worth betting in the Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers games thanks to the value identified by our model.
Week 17 in the NFL rolls on this Saturday, December 27, with a pair of games between the Houston Texans vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Green Bay Packers.
Our NFL Predictions have identified the best NFL bets and NFL player props to make in these standalone games on Saturday, and we're utilizing our Week 17 touchdown predictions to try and cash in with a pair of High Value touchdown scorer picks, one in each game.
What makes these NFL touchdown picks so appealing is not only the star power attached to the names, but the betting value in each pick with the Dimers model tagging each bet as more likely to hit than the implied probability in the sportsbook odds.
Below, we break down both picks and multiple ways to use this information to place data-backed bets this NFL Saturday.
Bet these NFL touchdown scorers on Saturday, December 27, 2025
These two players each project with a high probability to score a touchdown in their respective games, but our model identifies significant value on a longshot bet of each player to score not one touchdown, but two.
This data can be used in a variety of ways, including as straight wagers, a reference point for a two-leg Anytime TD parlay featuring these players, or a two-touchdown lotto parlay at huge +8900 odds.
1. Omarion Hampton (Chargers)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Texans vs. Chargers
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
In the first NFL game on the slate, we've got 2+ touchdown value on rookie RB Omarion Hampton of the Chargers.
Hampton was just hitting his stride early this season before he was sidelined with injury. In the three games since his return, he's scored twice and racked up over 200 total yards and is coming off his best performance. Granted, it was against the Cowboys' porous rushing defense, but Hampton has found room to run against other tough rushing fronts like Denver and Kansas City, and his backfield mate Kimani Vidal is listed as questionable with a neck injury, meaning he could see one of his biggest workloads yet.
Hampton draws a 10.8% probability to score a pair of touchdowns against the Texans who present one of the strongest red zone defenses in the NFL, but that 10.8% implies odds of around +900, while Hampton can be found at +1100 on FanDuel for a significant 2.5% edge. At 42.8% for an Anytime Touchdown, Hampton is the most likely player to score in this game for either side, according to our model.
Notably, Houston just allowed a 188-yard, 2 TD performance to fellow rookie RB Ashton Jeanty just last week, and with the AFC West still in play for the Chargers, our model expects an aggressive attack as they look to force a Week 18 showdown with the Broncos.
2. Derrick Henry (Ravens)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Ravens vs. Packers
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lambeau Field
In the late game, it's none other than Ravens RB Derrick Henry who gets our model's best value to score two touchdowns.
Henry is the subject of some Ravens controversy after he was not on the field on critical late-game plays in Baltimore's Week 16 loss, a call made by HC John Harbaugh, a particularly eye-raising decision given it was Henry's best game since Week 1 of the season, racking up 128 yards and two scores.
It was his fourth multi-touchdown game of the season and he gets a 17.2% probability to make it five this Saturday vs. the Packers. At +650 odds on FanDuel, we're getting a 3.9% edge as our model says he should be just +480.
Baltimore will be without starting QB Lamar Jackson and starting Tyler Huntley, meaning the run game will likely be even more integral to their game plan than usual - in three Huntley appearances this season, Henry has 2 TDs twice and 122 rushing yards in the other as the clear funnel for the offense in those situations.
At 52.7% to score an Anytime Touchdown, Henry is the highest overall in this game and one of the Top 10 most likely in all of Week 17.
Week 17 NFL Saturday Touchdown Picks
| Player | Anytime TD Probability | 2+ TD Probability | 2+ TD Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton (Chargers) | 42.8% | 10.8% | +1100 |
| Derrick Henry (Ravens) | 52.7% | 17.2% | +650 |
For bettors looking to leverage this data, we recommend betting each of the 2+ touchdown props as a straight bet. This is the best way to capitalize on the betting value in each individual bet.
Another method, albeit at much lower odds, is to bet on Henry and Hampton to each score one touchdown in a two-leg anytime touchdown parlay at +378.
For the highest risk but also the biggest payout, bettors can pair both of the multi-touchdown props into a parlay that pays out at +8900 odds on FanDuel.
Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season
- NFL Week 17 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 17 matchup
- NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
- NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
- Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
- Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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