Rockets vs. Spurs prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 23, 2026

The San Antonio Spurs are favored to beat the Houston Rockets on Friday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Rockets vs. Spurs prediction gives San Antonio a 69.4% chance of winning at Moody Center, with the latest odds also suggesting value in betting on the Spurs to win.

Rockets vs. Spurs: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Spurs 116-110 Rockets
• Spurs win probability: 69.4%
• Rockets win probability: 30.6%
• Rockets +4.5 spread: 51.2% cover probability
• Over 224.5 points: 52.5% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Rockets vs. Spurs odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Rockets moneyline: 36¢ (Novig)
• Spurs moneyline: 64¢ (Novig)
• Rockets +4.5: 49¢ (Novig)
• Spurs -4.5: 52¢ (Novig)
• Over 224.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
• Under 224.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Spurs moneyline (64¢)

With San Antonio favored to beat Houston, Dimers' top value bet is the Spurs moneyline at 64¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply the Spurs have a 64.0% chance of winning, while our model puts that probability at 69.4%.

That's a 5.4% edge in the Spurs' favor, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Rockets vs. Spurs player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Kevin Durant leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Rockets star also expected to add 5.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists. The Rockets have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Spurs' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Kevin Durant (Rockets): 25.2 points
• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs): 24.0
• Alperen Sengun (Rockets): 18.6
• Stephon Castle (Spurs): 17.2
• Amen Thompson (Rockets): 17.0

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Rockets vs. Spurs predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Friday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Rockets vs. Spurs predictions.

Rockets vs. Spurs game details

• Matchup: Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
• Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
• Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT
• Venue: Moody Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.