Grizzlies vs. Warriors prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 23, 2026

The Golden State Warriors are favored to beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Grizzlies vs. Warriors prediction gives Golden State a 61.2% chance of winning at Chase Center, with the latest odds also suggesting value in betting on the Warriors to cover the -4.5 spread.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Warriors 118-115 Grizzlies
• Warriors win probability: 61.2%
• Grizzlies win probability: 38.8%
• Warriors -4.5 spread: 56.2% cover probability
• Under 236.5 points: 54.3% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Grizzlies moneyline: 40¢ (Novig)
• Warriors moneyline: 60¢ (Polymarket)
• Grizzlies +4.5: 51¢ (Novig)
• Warriors -4.5: 49¢ (Novig)
• Over 236.5 points: 51¢ (Polymarket)
• Under 236.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Warriors -4.5 (49¢)

With Golden State favored to beat Memphis, Dimers' top value bet is the Warriors to cover the -4.5 spread at 49¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply the Warriors have a 49.0% chance of covering the spread, while our model puts that probability at 56.2%.

That's a 7.2% edge in the Warriors' favor, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Stephen Curry leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Warriors star also expected to add 4.9 assists and 4 rebounds. The Grizzlies have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Warriors' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Stephen Curry (Warriors): 25.8 points
• Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 22.9
• Brandin Podziemski (Warriors): 16.1
• Jerami Grant (Grizzlies): 15.5
• Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies): 13.5

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Friday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors game details

• Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
• Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT
• Venue: Chase Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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