NBA first basket predictions and picks for Friday, October 23, 2026

Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, October 23, 2026, are live with the Grizzlies' Ty Jerome projected as the most likely player to score first. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum round out the top three.

Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

• Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 16.2% probability
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 15.3%
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics): 15.3%
• Brandon Miller (Hornets): 15.1%
• Pascal Siakam (Pacers): 14.7%
• Jalen Brunson (Knicks): 14.7%
• Stephen Curry (Warriors): 14.7%
• Ja Morant (Trail Blazers): 14.7%
• CJ McCollum (Hawks): 14.0%
• Franz Wagner (Magic): 13.9%

Best NBA first basket bet tonight

The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.

John Collins first basket scorer

• Odds: +1000 (FanDuel)
• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 13.5%
• Matchup: Pistons vs. Heat (8:00 PM ET)

The Pistons' John Collins has a 13.5% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 9.1% implied by FanDuel's +1000 odds. That's a 4.4% edge, the largest we've identified on Friday's NBA slate. Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.

About these NBA first basket predictions

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.

Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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