Mavericks vs. Pacers prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 23, 2026

The Indiana Pacers are favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Mavericks vs. Pacers prediction gives Indiana a 72.1% chance of winning at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value lies in under 240.5 points.

Mavericks vs. Pacers: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Pacers 121-115 Mavericks
• Pacers win probability: 72.1%
• Mavericks win probability: 27.9%
• Pacers -7.5 spread: 52.4% cover probability
• Under 240.5 points: 55.4% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Mavericks vs. Pacers odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Mavericks moneyline: 30¢ (Novig)
• Pacers moneyline: 71¢ (Novig)
• Mavericks +7.5: 50¢ (Novig)
• Pacers -7.5: 50¢ (Novig)
• Over 240.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
• Under 240.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Under 240.5 (51¢)

The Pacers may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is under 240.5 total points at 51¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply a 51.0% chance of the game finishing under 240.5 points, while our model puts that probability at 55.4%.

That's a 4.4% edge on the under, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Mavericks vs. Pacers player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Cooper Flagg leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Mavericks star also expected to add 6.6 rebounds and 5 assists. The Pacers have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Mavericks' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): 24.4 points
• Pascal Siakam (Pacers): 24.3
• Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers): 19.5
• Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): 19.0
• Andrew Nembhard (Pacers): 16.3

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Mavericks vs. Pacers predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Friday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Mavericks vs. Pacers predictions.

Mavericks vs. Pacers game details

• Matchup: Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
• Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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