Oct 3, 2026
MLB picks today: Saturday's MLB best bets include Yankees vs. Rays play [10/3/2026]
Read Article Yankees vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [10/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.5% win probability for the Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays will square off with the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Tropicana Field on Saturday, beginning at 6:30 PM ET.
The Rays will send Drew Rasmussen (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound, while the Yankees will counter with Gerrit Cole (0-0, 0.00 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Rays a slight edge with a 53.5% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers a complete Yankees vs. Rays prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Drew Rasmussen's pitching projections.
Yankees vs. Rays prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Rays a 53.5% chance of beating the Yankees. According to our model, the Yankees (+1.5) have a 64.7% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 61.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Yankees +1.5 (-178) / Rays -1.5 (+178)
- Moneyline: Yankees +125, Rays -127
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-127/+127)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 @ 64¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Yankees @ 44¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 56¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB action between the Rays and Yankees at Tropicana Field is scheduled to start at 6:30 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Time: 6:30 PM ET/3:30PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 53.5% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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