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Red Sox vs. Yankees Predictions: Bet365 Aaron Judge HR Prop for Game 1

Updated: Sep 30, 2025, 4:15 PM ET
Pat Sharyon
Written by Pat Sharyon, Special Correspondent
Reviewed by Damien Souness
Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 1 Preview and Bet365 Judge HR Prop.

The 2025 MLB postseason begins with a classic rivalry clash as the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees for Game 1 of their playoff series at Yankee Stadium. With two aces on the mound and October tension in the air, Bet365 is spotlighting Aaron Judge with a home run prop that could define the series opener.

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Bet365 is offering +230 odds on Aaron Judge to hit a home run in tonight’s matchup against Boston.

  • Judge has been one of the league’s most dangerous power hitters all season.
  • Dimers’ predictive model gives him a strong probability of leaving the yard against Garrett Crochet.
  • In a high-stakes rivalry game, backing Judge’s long-ball power offers value at these odds.

Note: Odds in this article are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Game Details: Red Sox Vs. Yankees

  • Teams: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
  • Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
  • Time: 6:08 p.m. ET
  • Location: Yankee Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers: Red Sox – Garrett Crochet (0-0, 0.00 ERA) | Yankees – Max Fried (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
  • Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-194) | Yankees -1.5 (+165)
  • Moneyline: Red Sox +120 | Yankees -138
  • Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-120/+102)

Expert Prediction: Red Sox Vs. Yankees

According to Dimers’ data-driven model, the Yankees hold a 56% chance of winning Game 1 at home.

Boston, however, has a 64% chance of covering the +1.5 run line, and the model also projects the over 6.5 runs (65% probability) as the stronger total play.

Red Sox Vs. Yankees Best Bet

The best value play for tonight’s playoff opener is Over 6.5 runs (-120). Both offenses are capable of breaking through despite strong starting pitching, and the bullpen factor could tilt the total upward.

Final Thoughts

With postseason stakes amplified, Bet365’s Aaron Judge HR prop (+230) brings extra intrigue to Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Judge has delivered in October before, and his bat could once again be the difference-maker under the lights in the Bronx.

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