Bears vs. Commanders MNF: Jacory Croskey-Merritt First TD Bet on Bet365

Monday Night Football rolls into Washington, where Jacory Croskey-Merritt headlines one of tonight’s most intriguing Bet365 player props — First Touchdown Scorer (+450) — as the Commanders look to extend their winning streak against the visiting Chicago Bears at Northwest Stadium.

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Bet365 Prop: Jacory Croskey-Merritt to Score the First TD (+450)

Croskey-Merritt enters tonight’s game at +450 odds to find the end zone first — excellent value for a player who’s logged two touchdowns across his last five appearances. The Commanders’ offense has leaned on Croskey-Merritt near the goal line, particularly in scripted early drives where Washington looks to establish tempo on the ground.

Given Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability, Croskey-Merritt often benefits from play-action near the red zone, making him a reliable option for first-touchdown markets.

Odds accurate at the time of publication and subject to change.

Game Details: Bears vs. Commanders

• Teams: Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Monday, October 13, 2025
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Northwest Stadium
• Spread: Bears +5.5 (-110) | Commanders -5.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Bears +215 | Commanders -250
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-104/-105)

Expert Prediction: Bears vs. Commanders

Dimers’ data model gives the Commanders a 69% chance of winning, highlighting them as the stronger side both statistically and situationally.

The total is projected to push the Over (49.5) slightly, with a 53% chance of clearing that mark. This aligns with both offenses trending upward in efficiency — a setup that supports touchdown-related prop action like Croskey-Merritt’s.

Bears vs. Commanders Best Bet

Dimers’ top game-line selection is Over 49.5 points (-104), but if you’re looking for player-specific value, Croskey-Merritt’s First Touchdown (+450) on Bet365 stands out as a compelling angle.

He’s Washington’s most consistent goal-line threat, and the model gives him an 11.8% probability to hit first — roughly in line with elite short-yardage backs across the league.

Score Prediction for Bears vs. Commanders

Dimers projects a 27-22 Commanders victory, with Croskey-Merritt and Deebo Samuel combining for much of Washington’s early production. Expect Croskey-Merritt to play a key role on first-half drives, especially if Washington wins the coin toss and starts with possession.

NFL Week 6: Bears vs. Commanders

Tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader wraps up in Washington, where the Commanders host the Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET. All data-driven insights and player props, including Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s first touchdown market, are based on 10,000 Dimers simulations and accurate as of publication time.

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To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Damien Souness as part of our fact-checking process.