Tech layoffs in the first quarter of this year have already exceeded 73,000 jobs. But will there be more cuts in this sector in 2026 than we saw in 2025? Many traders think they might.
Prediction markets are of the view that there will be more job losses in the tech sector by year-end, which isn't surprising. Here, we’ll be looking at the current status of job cuts in tech, the factors that are influencing them, what the markets are saying, and how you can trade this question at top prediction platforms.
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Tech Layoffs In 2026 Compared To 2025
For this market to settle, the layoffs for this year will be compared with official data from the information sector, where total layoffs in 2025 were at 447,000.
Thus far, this year has already recorded some significant job cuts especially among the big tech companies. Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel have laid off thousands of staff. Meta is also intending to toe the same path.
These aren’t isolated cases. They're just a reflection of what's going on in this sector. If it continues this way, the number of people affected may very well be more than last year’s figure.
What Factors Are Driving Layoffs In 2026?
Several factors could affect whether layoffs increase or slow down this year. At the forefront is the AI boom, which honestly doesn’t seem to be slowing down yet. Let's take a look at the main drivers:
Advancement In AI
Top software companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have rolled out their latest models. This means more efficient AI that can automate tasks that were previously done by large teams and departments.
Cost Cutting And The Move To Increase Profit
A lot of companies are looking to reduce their costs, and this often leads to workforce cuts.
Over Hiring During Covid
This is easily the most common reason that's given for job cuts. Many companies over-hired during the COVID pandemic, now they're scaling back to match operational needs.
Economic Uncertainty
There have been growing concerns about the state of the economy, and this has made some companies more cautious with spending.
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What Is The Market Saying?
We've had a look at the top
prediction market sites
and traders on these platforms are currently speculating more tech layoffs this year than in 2025. Up contracts are trading at 81 cents right now, and this implies that traders view an 80% chance that layoffs will indeed exceed last year’s total.
Remember that event contract prices aren't fixed, and they might change based on new data and development in the tech sector.
How To Trade This Question At Top Prediction Market Sites
If you’ve got a view on whether there will be more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025, you can trade this question on top
economy prediction sites. To access these platforms, you must be at least 18 years old and live in an eligible state. If that's clear, here's how to go about it:
- Choose any of the featured prediction market sites on our on-page banners
- Visit the site and click on the sign-up button
- Fill in your personal details and get verified
- Log into your account
- Navigate to the tech section or use the search bar to easily find contracts for this market
- Choose your position of Up or Down contracts
- Enter the number of event contract shares you want and complete your purchase
Based on predictions across several sites, 2026 doesn't seem like a year that will reverse the trend in tech layoffs seen in recent years. However, we are in the second quarter, and the outcome will depend on how the rest of the year unfolds.
Do you think layoffs will end up higher than last year? You can trade this question at top prediction platforms featured on our on-page banners.
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