Will October 2026 Be the Hottest October on Record?

October is shaping up to make climate history, at least according to Kalshi traders.

Kalshi launched its market on September 27, asking traders to forecast whether October 2026 will be the hottest October on record. The market gives it an 84.1% chance of setting that record.

The market is scheduled to close on November 15, with the outcome verified by official data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The market tracks global ocean and land temperature anomalies, not temperatures in any specific region or country.

We’ll look at how the market works, what the current probabilities suggest, and how October’s historical temperature data will determine the market’s outcome.

Could October 2026 Set a New Temperature Record?

Kalshi’s trending market in the climate category asks whether October 2026 will be the hottest October on record, based on global land-and-ocean temperature anomalies.

At the time of writing, Kalshi traders give a Yes outcome a very high 84.1% chance. Since launching, the market has generated over $28,500 in trading volume.

This is one of the platform’s recurring monthly markets, which generally list a new contract associated with temperature anomalies and trends for the following month. Kalshi also features other climate prediction markets, alongside other trending topics across other categories such as politics, technology, commodities, elections, sports, science, culture, crypto, economics, and more.

The contract will resolve Yes if the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) publishes official data confirming that October 2026 is the hottest October on record. The comparison between October 2026 and previous October figures is based on land-and-ocean temperature anomalies globally, rather than a temperature in October in a specific region.

The market rules say that the market will resolve using the value documented by NCEI, with later revisions not affecting the outcome. The market will close on November 15 at 10:59 p.m. EST, with a projected payout scheduled for one hour later.

Other Climate Prediction Markets on Kalshi

Kalshi’s climate category covers a range of weather and seasonal forecasts in addition to global temperature records. Daily markets track high and low temperatures alongside rainfall in cities across the US, including Miami, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Minneapolis, Seattle, Chicago, Houston, New York City, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, and Philadelphia.

One of the live markets asks traders to forecast how many inches of snow Chicago will get in December, with the current probability giving a 63% chance of more than 4 inches and a 62% chance of more than 6 inches.

Kalshi traders can also forecast the number of Atlantic storms this year, when the major ski resorts will open, and even how many Eastern Pacific hurricanes there will be this year.

If you’d like to learn more about Kalshi or see how it stacks up against other popular prediction market platforms, see our full list of prediction markets for a thorough comparison.