Illinois’ nuclear power fleet is at the center of a Kalshi market launched in August, asking traders to forecast how much electricity the state will generate from nuclear power in 2026.
Kalshi traders currently favor the forecast for 97.7 terawatt-hours (TWh), with a 91% chance that output will exceed 95 TWh. The odds dramatically drop to 53% for more than 97.5 TWh and just 5% for more than 100 TWh.
In the two months since launch, the market has already generated over $250,000 in trading volume. According to Kalshi’s rules, the market will settle using official EIA data on the state’s nuclear electricity net generation for the whole calendar year, including electricity generated by all six Illinois nuclear facilities.
With the final number still two months away, the probabilities are expected to shift. Let’s take a closer look at the current market odds and what they suggest about the state’s nuclear output in 2026.
Kalshi’s Illinois Nuclear Power Forecast for 2026
Kalshi opened this market on August 18, 2026, asking traders to forecast whether Illinois’ utility-scale net nuclear generation will exceed specific TWh thresholds during the year. At the time of writing, the platform’s overall forecast is 97.7 TWh, with trading volume exceeding $250,000.
The listed thresholds for the Illinois nuclear power market range from 87.5 TWh to 102.5 TWh. Yes contracts are priced at 97¢ for above 87.5 TWh, 96¢ for above 90 TWh, 95¢ for above 92.5 TWh, and 91¢ for above 95 TWh. Above 97.5 TWh has a 53% chance, with Yes priced at 54¢ and No at 47¢. Above 100 TWh is priced at 5%, with Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, while above 102.5 TWh has a 3% chance, with Yes at 3¢ and No at 98¢.
The market will resolve using the first EIA publication on Illinois’ nuclear generation with complete data covering January to December 2026, with later revisions not affecting the result. The market is expected to close after the EIA publication, or by February 28, 2027.
The market on Illinois’ nuclear energy generation for 2026 is similar to other markets, such as the
climate prediction markets, many of which ask traders to forecast the highest and lowest temperatures across US cities.
What Else Does Kalshi Cover?
Kalshi is one of the best-established
prediction market apps, covering a wide range of real-world events across different categories, including sports, technology, science, culture, crypto, politics, elections, and more.
The platform currently offers a range of
economy predictions, such as forecasts on US gas prices this week, the number of rate cuts in 2026, core CPI YoY in November, Texas crude oil production this year, US Treasury cash balance, and more.
The politics category is equally popular, covering a wide range of trending topics, such as Trump’s next press secretary, the return to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump’s approval rating, the number of executive orders Trump will sign this week, and more.
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