Texans vs. Jaguars prediction favors Jacksonville to win NFL Week 6 [2026]

Since our Texans-Jaguars predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Jaguars, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Jaguars a 61.4% chance of beating the Texans in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Jaguars winning 23-20.

Key factors favoring the Jaguars:

• Jaguars QB situation
• Jaguars team rating
• Texans offense

According to our model, the Jaguars (-2.5) have a 54.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 42.5-point over/under has a 58.4% chance of going over.

The key factors that make the over more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• Jaguars recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texans +2.5 (-102) / Jaguars -2.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Texans +127, Jaguars -125
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+108/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Jaguars -2.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Jaguars @ 56¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 42.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Texans vs. Jaguars TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Jaguars?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Woody Marks is most likely to score an anytime TD in Texans vs. Jaguars.

Our projections give Marks a 43.6% chance of scoring a TD at Wembley Stadium, while the running back is a 10.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• Woody Marks (RB): 43.6% probability
• Nico Collins (WR): 40.2%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 17.5%
• Jaylin Noel (WR): 14.2%
• Marvin Harrison (WR): 14.0%

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 40.3% prob.
• Parker Washington (WR): 33.8%
• Brenton Strange (TE): 21.1%
• Jakobi Meyers (WR): 19.4%
• Trevor Lawrence (QB): 18.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• Woody Marks (RB): 10.8% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 9.7%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 3.6%
• Jaylin Noel (WR): 2.9%
• Marvin Harrison (WR): 2.8%

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 10.9% prob.
• Parker Washington (WR): 8.7%
• Brenton Strange (TE): 5.0%
• Jakobi Meyers (WR): 4.6%
• Trevor Lawrence (QB): 4.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Jaguars. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 256 passing yards, while the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is expected to throw for 234 yards.

Texans rushing

• Woody Marks: 53 yds
• Jawhar Jordan: 14 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 13 yds

Jaguars rushing

• Bhayshul Tuten: 66 yds
• Chris Rodriguez: 18 yds
• Trevor Lawrence: 18 yds

Texans receiving

• Nico Collins: 77 yds
• Dalton Schultz: 35 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 29 yds
• Marvin Harrison: 27 yds
• Jaylin Noel: 24 yds

Jaguars receiving

• Parker Washington: 67 yds
• Brenton Strange: 42 yds
• Jakobi Meyers: 39 yds
• Brian Thomas: 25 yds
• Josh Cameron: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 matchup between the Jaguars and Texans at Wembley Stadium is scheduled to start at 9:30 AM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Time: 9:30 AM ET/6:30AM PT
• Venue: Wembley Stadium (London)

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Conclusion

We predict the Jaguars, with a 61.4% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in Week 6 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.