Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction favors Kansas City to win in NFL Week 6 [2026]

Since our Chargers-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 76.6% chance of defeating the Chargers in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 24-16.

Key factors favoring the Chiefs:

• Chargers QB situation
• Chiefs team rating
• Chiefs offense

According to our model, the Chiefs (-7.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 52.9% chance of staying under.

The key factors that make the under more likely are:

• QB ratings
• Chargers recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Chargers +7.5 (-108) / Chiefs -7.5 (+106)
• Moneyline: Chargers +365, Chiefs -376
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (+117/-122)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Chiefs -7.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Chargers @ 22¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs -7.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Chargers vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 6, Kenneth Walker is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chargers vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Walker a 60.0% chance of getting in for six at Arrowhead Stadium, while the running back is an 18.7% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 27.4% probability
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 21.3%
• Kimani Vidal (RB): 19.7%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 18.8%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 16.6%

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 60.0% prob.
• Travis Kelce (TE): 34.7%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 31.6%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 20.0%
• Jalen Royals (WR): 17.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 7.0% prob.
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 5.3%
• Kimani Vidal (RB): 4.8%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 4.6%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 4.0%

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 18.7% prob.
• Travis Kelce (TE): 8.7%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 7.7%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 4.5%
• Jalen Royals (WR): 4.0%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 198 passing yards. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 227 yards.

Chargers rushing

• Omarion Hampton: 36 yds
• Justin Herbert: 26 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 25 yds

Chiefs rushing

• Kenneth Walker: 92 yds
• Patrick Mahomes: 20 yds
• Emmett Johnson: 17 yds

Chargers receiving

• Ladd McConkey: 47 yds
• Quentin Johnston: 39 yds
• Charlie Kolar: 25 yds
• Oronde Gadsden: 19 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 17 yds

Chiefs receiving

• Xavier Worthy: 54 yds
• Travis Kelce: 53 yds
• Jalen Royals: 30 yds
• Kenneth Walker: 26 yds
• Cyrus Allen: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 game between the Chiefs and Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 76.6% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 6 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.