Steelers vs. Buccaneers prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win in NFL Week 6 [2026]

Since our Steelers-Buccaneers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Steelers and Buccaneers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Steelers a 61.4% chance of defeating the Buccaneers in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Steelers winning 20-17.

Key factors favoring the Steelers:

• Buccaneers QB situation
• Buccaneers offense
• Steelers team rating

According to our model, the Steelers (-1.5) have a 58.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 38.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-106) / Buccaneers +1.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Steelers -122, Buccaneers +122
• Total: Over/Under 38.5 (+104/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Steelers -1.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Steelers @ 55¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 38.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Steelers -1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Steelers vs. Buccaneers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Steelers vs. Buccaneers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 6, Jaylen Warren is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Steelers vs. Buccaneers.

Our projections give Warren a 34.1% chance of scoring a TD at Raymond James Stadium, while the running back is a 9.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Jaylen Warren (RB): 34.1% probability
• DK Metcalf (WR): 33.0%
• Germie Bernard (WR): 24.3%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 23.1%
• Rico Dowdle (RB): 20.4%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 34.0% prob.
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 29.4%
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 24.8%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 18.6%
• Jalon Daniels (QB): 15.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Jaylen Warren (RB): 9.6% prob.
• DK Metcalf (WR): 9.2%
• Germie Bernard (WR): 6.4%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 6.0%
• Rico Dowdle (RB): 5.3%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 9.0% prob.
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 7.6%
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 6.2%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 4.5%
• Jalon Daniels (QB): 3.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Steelers and Buccaneers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is projected for 231 passing yards. The Buccaneers' Jalon Daniels is expected to throw for just 180 yards.

Steelers rushing

• Jaylen Warren: 63 yds
• Rico Dowdle: 25 yds
• Aaron Rodgers: 3 yds

Buccaneers rushing

• Bucky Irving: 64 yds
• Jalon Daniels: 31 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 28 yds

Steelers receiving

• DK Metcalf: 55 yds
• Germie Bernard: 49 yds
• Pat Freiermuth: 37 yds
• Jaylen Warren: 29 yds
• Darnell Washington: 29 yds

Buccaneers receiving

• Emeka Egbuka: 43 yds
• Chris Godwin: 33 yds
• Cade Otton: 32 yds
• Ted Hurst: 19 yds
• Bucky Irving: 15 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 matchup between the Buccaneers and Steelers at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Steelers, with a 61.4% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 6 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.