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NFL touchdown picks and round robin parlay: Bet these four high value Anytime TD props for Divisional Round games
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The NFL playoffs continue with the Divisional Round games from January 17-18 and we've found one TD prop from each game thanks to the value identified by our model.
The NFL Playoffs continue with four Divisional Round games this weekend: Bills vs. Broncos and 49ers vs. Seahawks on Saturday, January 17 and Texans vs. Patriots and Rams vs. Bears on Sunday, January 18.
As they do every week, our NFL Predictions have identified the best NFL bets and NFL player props to make in each of the four games, and we're utilizing our NFL touchdown predictions to find the players with the most value to find the end zone.
What makes these NFL touchdown picks so appealing is not only the betting value in each pick, with the Dimers model tagging each bet as more likely to hit than the implied probability in the sportsbook odds, but the number of ways to utilize this data, from high value straight bets to a longshot touchdown parlay; last week's three players turned a profit by betting on the straight bets with value.
Below, we break down all four picks and multiple ways to use this information to place data-backed bets this weekend.
Bet these NFL touchdown scorers in the Divisional Round games
This data can be used in a variety of ways - straight wagers (our recommendation), a four-leg Anytime TD parlay featuring these players at +25152 odds, or as an anytime touchdown round robin.
1. Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Bills vs. Broncos
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
In the first game on Saturday, our model has identified some deep-cut value on Broncos RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin to find the end zone.
The third-year running back has a minor role in this offense, scoring one touchdown in 7 appearances since November, but has carved out his share of touches following JK Dobbins' injury, and he tallied 5+ carries and 37+ yards in his three final games of the season, outproducing lead back RJ Harvey on YPC basis.
Buffalo has the league's worst rushing defense, surrendering 24 touchdowns this season and 154 yards last week vs. Jacksonville.
The Dimers model gives McLaughlin an 18.0% probability to score, for fair odds of +455 and a 2.6% edge at his best price of +550.
2. Jauan Jennings (49ers)
Matchup details:
- Teams: 49ers vs. Seahawks
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lumen Field
In the night game, multiple players get an edge to score a touchdown for San Francisco, but WR Jauan Jennings gets the highest probability of those with value, and the second-highest overall on the 49ers.
Jennings recorded 9 touchdowns this season, six of them over his final seven weeks, and has big-play upside, highlighted by his lone 45-yard reception vs. the Eagles in the Wild Card round.
The Seahawks' defense is among the best vs. the pass and held San Francisco out of the endzone in Week 18, but our model also finds an edge in Brock Purdy to throw for at least 2 touchdowns at a 45.8%, pointing at two correlated props with an edge and high probability.
Jennings' 30.6% probability suggests fair odds of +225 for a 2.9% edge.
3. TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Texans vs. Patriots
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
We move to the Sunday slate of games and the player with the highest probability of these four, Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson.
The rookie has seen his role fluctuate this season, but it's been a pretty even split in the Patriots backfield between Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in the final month of the season, with Stevenson drawing more receiving work.
Henderson scored 10 total touchdowns in his rookie campaign - notably, all but one coming in a multi-touchdown performance.
The Texans' defense is adept at slowing the run, but does have red zone issues, allowing a TD on 56.8% of opponent trips, and Henderson's 36.5% probability implies fair odds of +175 for a 3.2% edge.
4. Blake Corum (Rams)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Rams vs. Bears
- Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Time: 6:30 PM ET
- Venue: Soldier Field
In the final game of the Divisional Round, we're looking at another RB2 to find his way into the end zone, the Rams' Blake Corum.
Corum's emergence has been undeniable for the Rams, who have seen their second-year RB rack up five touchdowns over the final seven games of the regular season with four games in double-digit touches.
He's elusive and has speed, making him a tough man to bring down, leading to his increased role in the second half of the season. His 13 touches last week were just 2 shy of lead back Kyren Williams and his 30.3% probability implies fair odds of +230, giving us the biggest edge of all these players at 3.3%.
The Bears had a bottom-five rushing defense in the regular season and held the Packers out of the end zone on the ground last week, but did allow 27 points, and the weather this week could set up a more run-heavy approach for the league's top scoring offense.
NFL Divisional Round Touchdown Picks and Parlay
| Player | Anytime TD Probability | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos) | 18.0% | +550 |
| Jauan Jennings (49ers) | 30.6% | +260 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) | 36.5% | +200 |
| Blake Corum (Rams) | 30.3% | +270 |
For bettors looking to leverage this data, we recommend betting each of the touchdown props as a straight bet. This is the best way to capitalize on the betting value in each individual bet.
Another method is to bet on a four-leg anytime touchdown parlay at +25152 odds on FanDuel.
Bettors can also play all four touchdown props into a round robin parlay with the combinations of x2 and x3.
Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season
- NFL Playoff Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every round
- NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
- NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
- Super Bowl LX Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
- Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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