Free Soccer Picks and Predictions – English Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A BetsSep 11, 2021 at 12:44AM
The best free soccer handicapper in the game is back for another week, with the great Prospector Sam providing free picks for all the action across Europe.
And we’re back, thank fuck. Sometimes it can be nice to take a break to reset and relax, but that principle does not apply to soccer and sports gambling. I want all of the content all of the time, and I’ve felt naked (an image nobody wants to see) for the last week plus with nothing to distract me during weekdays when I’m supposed to be doing my job. What do you want me to do, then, actually work? Hell no, that sounds awful.
But after the rain comes sunshine and rainbows (this is shockingly cheery, weird...) and the gods have blessed us with more soccer to gamble on. Since I’m now writing 3 articles a week for this gig, intros and rambling will be kept to a minimum for my own sanity (which is hanging on by a thread as it is). No time like the present, here are the picks!
Free Soccer Picks
🏴 Best Premier League Picks
Watford vs. Wolves: Sat Sept 11, 10am (EST)
Neither of these sides are all that good, which makes betting this game a pretty big question mark. In fact, I wasn’t even considering betting on it until I saw the line. Uhhhhh, what kind of meth are you people smoking over at the sports books? (I’m not a cop, I just want to share). Watford +240 at home is a fucking gift. Sure, Wolves probably deserve to be a bit higher in the table after a couple of solid performances against United and Spurs that ended in 1-0 defeats, but they’re still sitting at 18th with 0 goals scored. Watford, meanwhile, had a similarly tough loss against Spurs and managed 3 points against Villa in their first game. Basically, these sides are about even and I give a slight edge to the Hornets at Vicarage Road, which means that +240 for Watford is crazy. How Wolves are a heavy favorite at +125 is beyond me, and I will gladly take a shot at this bet with the chance of a heavy payout. Feel free to take the double chance if you’d like some safety, but I don’t think it’s warranted here.
💰 Pick: Watford ML (+240, 1 unit)
Southampton vs. West Ham: Sat Sept 11, 10am (EST)
As I went to write this article I took a quick look at the table, and almost spit out some of my coffee when I saw the goal numbers for West Ham this season. Sure, I knew they were high, but this is surpassing West Brom levels right now (RIP). The Hammers have scored 10 goals and given up 5 in 3 games, which is what you’d expect in youth soccer, not the Premier League. Their opposition, Southampton, have also scored over a goal per game and given up 6 in 3 matches. All that screams low value on the over, right? Well, the books don’t see it that way. Over 2.5 is just -138, which seems crazy for the way these two teams are playing. Sure, there’s no guarantee of anything and soccer can be odd sometimes, but the stats just don’t point towards anything but a high scoring game. For the number we’re getting, I’ll hammer this bet (see what I did there?) every day of the week and not feel bad about it regardless of the outcome. This is simply too much value to pass up.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-138, 2 units)
Leicester City vs. Manchester City: Sat Sept 11, 10am (EST)
Most of my analysis for this bet is going to involve convincing you that I’m not crazy, so I’ll start with the pick and work backwards. I think there’s great value on the City ML at -190 here. Yes, they’re playing a top 5 side away and the payout is about 50 cents on the dollar, but I genuinely believe City are just that fucking good. Beating up on Arsenal and Norwich may not tell you a ton, but it shows that they have the class to bury teams who aren’t solid enough to be on the same field as them. Leicester, meanwhile, barely survived Norwich last week which tells me that they aren’t in the same echelon (see, I can use fancy words too) as their opposition.
On top of that, City have just looked like a much better side this season (the eyeball test can be important sometimes too). They probably deserved to beat Spurs, and have so much attacking talent they can’t even fit all of their world class players on the field. Leicester, meanwhile, are struggling to produce offensively and are suffering from a dip in Maddison’s form relative to last season. The Foxes are still one of the better teams in the league, but they really don’t have the talent to hold up against City unless Schmeichel produces a masterclass. I expect City to continue their reign of terror, and -190 against anyone besides Chelsea/Liverpool/United will look like a steal a month from now.
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💰 Pick: Man City ML (-190, 2 units)
Bilbao vs. Mallorca: Sat Sept 11, 3pm (EST)
One of the most important tools in a successful gambler’s belt is capitalizing on value before others do. Time to show you how that’s done (or backpedal furiously if I fail, TBD). Mallorca have had a great run since their promotion, pulling 7 points from 3 games, but that form isn’t going to last. Now they’re on the road against a Bilbao side who finished 10th last year in La Liga and the home side are sitting at -130, which feels heavily skewed by Mallorca’s place in the table.
Wins over Espanyol and Alaves have been impressive upsets for a newly promoted side, but they got the benefit of a red card in one victory and never really looked better in any of their matches. Bilbao, meanwhile, have pulled points in all 3 games including a draw at home against Barcelona, and can put much more talent on the field than their opponents. This side has tons of La Liga experience and will certainly finish well above Mallorca by the end of the season, so getting them at close to standard odds at home feels like great value that’s heavily influenced by recent results. I’ll gladly jump on it and take advantage.
💰 Pick: Bilbao ML (-130, 1.5 units)
Espanyol vs. Atletico Madrid: Sun Sept 12, 8am (EST)
I could likely copy and paste a lot of what I said in the last pick here, but I’ll add a bit more color because that wouldn’t be fun for anyone. Atletico are a much better side than newly promoted Espanyol, and getting even money on the defending La Liga champs is a bit of a head scratcher. The major difference from my Bilbao pick is that Espanyol haven’t even been very good, picking up 2 points from 3 matches with their only “bright spot” being a helpless 0-0 draw with Villareal.
Let’s just say, I’m seeing a lot of value here. Atletico haven’t been particularly impressive to start the season either, but I can only say that in terms of relative expectations. Simeone’s side have 7 points from 3 matches (though the Villareal draw off a hilarious 95th minute own goal was certainly not deserved), and are far more talented than Espanyol. Getting them at even money is too generous to pass up, and I’m willing to take a heavy crack at this one.
Your La Liga game not here? Check out our La Liga Bet Hub and get picks and predictions for every game of the season.
💰 Pick: Atletico ML (Even, 2 units)
🇫🇷 Best French Ligue 1 Picks
PSG vs. Clermont: Sun Sept 12, 9am (EST)
Despite having a perfect record and averaging 3 goals a game in Ligue 1 to start the year, it almost feels like the Parisians have underperformed. They’ve yet to play an even halfway decent side, but haven’t managed to pull away from any of them for a signature thumping that we’ve come to expect from PSG. Well, I think the tide turns here. Clermont have had a hell of a run to start the season and sit 4th in the table, but they’ve given up 5 goals in their last two games and are facing a PSG side who will now have fully integrated Messi.
The money isn’t all that great on the ML (obviously), but I’m going to take a shot on a couple of goal bets for PSG because I think they might go medieval on Clermont here. The Parisians at home, facing a newly promoted side, and will be sporting arguably the most dangerous offense in the world. 3 and 4 goals are both very attainable numbers for them, and the value isn’t bad based on how I see this match going. Nothing super creative about this one, but it’s worth the money.
💰 Pick:PSG team total OVER 2.5 (-148, 2 units), Over 3.5 (+200, 0.75 units)
🇮🇹 Best Serie A Picks
Sampdoria vs. Inter: Sun Sept 12, 9am EST
One of the worst things I’ve done to myself since Serie A started has been watching Sampdoria play. It’s like trying to watch your parents sex tape, but maybe worse (sorry for putting that image in your head). In two matches, the home side have scored 0 and given up 1, making them one of the most boring outfits (which is a crime in Italy, so I’m told) in all of Europe. Inter, meanwhile, have built off last year’s title by starting a new campaign of dominance with 3-1 and 4-0 victories. While Sampdoria have done well to keep their opposition from scoring so far this season, I don’t expect them to hold up here, and their inability to find the back of the net will be disastrous against a side as talented as Inter. At -145 it’s not my favorite bet based on value, but I think it’s still right for the money.
💰 Picks: Inter ML (-145, 1 unit)
🇩🇪 Best Bundesliga Picks
Union Berlin vs. Augsburg: Sat Sept 11, 9am EST
Union Berlin have quietly grown into one of the better teams in the Bundesliga. They finished 7th last season and have had a decent start despite a tough early fixture slate. Augsburg have had a conveniently similar slate, which makes for some easy comparisons, but have fared much worse. Berlin drew both Hoffenheim and Leverkusen who are two of the better teams in the league, while Augsburg lost 4-0 and 4-1, respectively, to both those teams at home. It doesn’t take a whole lot of brainpower to see where this is going, so I’ll just skip to the punchline and tell you to bet Union Berlin. The value is fairly decent at -140 for them to win the game at home, and they’re simply the far better side right now. I would have put the game at closer to -170 or -180 and I like this bet a lot where we’re getting it.
💰 Picks: Union Berlin ML (-140, 1.5 units)
Leipzig vs. Bayern: Sat Sept 11, 12pm EST
Seeing Bayern at anything close to an even number in the Bundesliga is sort of like seeing an endangered bird; it’s surprising, and you have to cherish the moment before it flies away (side note I’m moonlighting for Seventeen magazine, if you couldn’t tell). And I’m going to take advantage of the moment by betting it while I can. Bayern are obviously the best team in the League and can handle any side on their best day. While Leipzig have traditionally been an issue over the last few years they’ve really struggled to start the season, in large part (in my opinion) because they lost their manager Julian Nagelsmann. Where did that manager go? Conveniently, right down the road to a club named Bayern, which means he will have a keen understanding of his opposition and all of their weaknesses. Between Leipzig’s shaky form and the tactical advantage Bayern holds, I think this game should be closer to the -150 number even in Leipzig, and I’ll take them heavily in this one.
💰 Picks: Bayern ML (+120, 2 units)
⚽ Euro Soccer Leagues
Anderlecht: Sun Aug 29, 7:30am EST
This week’s trip to Belgium takes us to Brussels for another shot at some profit. Our recent travels here have brought us memorable wins such as Eupen ML +160 and Gent ML +195, so let’s keep that momentum going. While this bet isn’t quite as lucrative in terms of odds, I like it a lot and I think it’ll be just as kind. Take the home side to win at -145. Anderlecht are a perennial top team in the Jupiler League, finishing 3rd last season, but have struggled to start the year. They sit 12th with 7 points through 5 games, which is poor by their standards, but this game is a solid opportunity to grab an easy 3.
KVM are more of a mid table side (this year is no different as they sit on 7 points as well with a -2GD), and this is a match Anderlecht should easily be able to handle despite their early struggles. Anderlecht have likely hurt from some fatigue early in the year with a bunch of European matches including a trip to Albania, but they’ve been knocked out of those competitions and will benefit from additional rest during the international break. KVM simply aren’t that strong, and I like the home side to take this game by a couple goals.
💰 Pick: Anderlecht ML (-145, 2 units)
Lugano vs. Basel: Sun Sept 12, 10:30am (EST)
This line is an absolute steal. Basel have been far and away the most impressive team in the Swiss League so far this season, and have a +11 GD through just 5 games. They’re eating lower table teams alive, and that’s exactly what they face in Lugano. The home side sit 5th (there are only 10 teams) with 6 points through 4 games, and their only matchup with a better club was a 2-0 loss at home to Zurich. Basel should be able to comfortably handle this matchup, and at positive odds I love it even more. Don’t think too much on this one, just let it ride.
💰 Pick: Basel ML (+105, 2 units)
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