Hawks vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Hawks vs. Warriors NBA game on January 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Hawks
122
109
Chase Center
Warriors
Chase Center
TEAM1234T
Hawks
27 32 35 28 122
Warriors
28 25 25 31 109
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Hawks
    >99%
  • Warriors
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Hawks
27 32 35 28 122
Warriors
28 25 25 31 109
Q4 1:18 Gui Santos makes three point jump shot (Will Richard assists)
Q4 3:00 Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point running layup
Q4 3:16 CJ McCollum makes two point floating jump shot
Q4 3:58 Jimmy Butler III makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
Q4 6:54 Jalen Johnson misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 10:15 Luke Kennard makes three point jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
Q3 6:19 Stephen Curry makes two point driving reverse layup
Q3 7:30 Jimmy Butler III makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
Q3 9:50 Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
Q2 00:01 CJ McCollum makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 1:18
    +3
    Gui Santos makes three point jump shot (Will Richard assists)
    122-109
  2. Q4 2:09
    Onyeka Okongwu misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  3. Q4 3:00
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point running layup
  4. Q4 3:16
    +2
    CJ McCollum makes two point floating jump shot
    118-102
  5. Q4 3:58
    +2
    Jimmy Butler III makes two point cutting layup (Draymond Green assists)
    116-101
  6. Q4 6:13
    Stephen Curry defensive rebound
  7. Q4 6:42
    Hawks lineup change (CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
  8. Q4 6:54
    Jalen Johnson misses two point pullup jump shot
  9. Q4 7:24
    Vit Krejci defensive rebound
  10. Q4 7:54
    +1
    Corey Kispert makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    109-87
  11. Q4 8:28
    Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
  12. Q4 9:31
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  13. Q4 10:15
    +3
    Luke Kennard makes three point jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
    103-81
  14. Q4 10:44
    Hawks lineup change (Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard, Corey Kispert)
  15. Q4 11:32
    Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
  16. Q4 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, Quinten Post, Draymond Green)
  17. Q3 3:24
    Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
  18. Q3 4:03
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  19. Q3 6:19
    +2
    Stephen Curry makes two point driving reverse layup
    72-71
  20. Q3 6:55
    Warriors offensive rebound
  21. Q3 7:30
    +2
    Jimmy Butler III makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
    70-65
  22. Q3 9:18
    Warriors lineup change (Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, De'Anthony Melton, Quinten Post, Draymond Green)
  23. Q3 9:50
    Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
  24. Q3 10:20
    Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
  25. Q3 10:56
    +1
    Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    61-56
  26. Q3 11:15
    Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
  27. Q2 00:01
    +2
    CJ McCollum makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
    59-53
  28. Q2 00:08
    Warriors lineup change (Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler III, De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green)
  29. Q2 1:04
    Gary Payton II turnover (offensive foul)
  30. Q2 1:39
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  31. Q2 2:21
    Stephen Curry misses three point pullup jump shot
  32. Q2 2:58
    +2
    Jimmy Butler III makes two point driving floating jump shot
    45-48
  33. Q2 3:54
    Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
  34. Q2 4:16
    Will Richard turnover (offensive foul)
  35. Q2 5:08
    +1
    Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    41-44
  36. Q2 5:26
    CJ McCollum misses regular free throw 3 of 3
  37. Q2 5:49
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
  38. Q2 5:59
    Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
  39. Q2 6:38
    Jimmy Butler III misses three point jump shot
  40. Q2 7:21
    Jalen Johnson personal foul (Jimmy Butler III draws the foul)
  41. Q2 7:28
    +1
    Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    35-39
  42. Q2 7:28
    Warriors lineup change (Al Horford, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler III, De'Anthony Melton, Will Richard)
  43. Q2 7:51
    Onyeka Okongwu offensive foul (Brandin Podziemski draws the foul)
  44. Q2 7:51
    Hawks lineup change (Asa Newell, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci, Corey Kispert)
  45. Q2 7:57
    +2
    Stephen Curry makes two point reverse layup (Draymond Green assists)
    34-39
  46. Q2 8:08
    +2
    Dyson Daniels makes two point driving floating jump shot (Corey Kispert assists)
    34-37
  47. Q2 8:43
    Hawks 60 second timeout
  48. Q2 8:43
    Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci, Corey Kispert)
  49. Q2 9:04
    Mouhamed Gueye misses two point fadeaway jump shot
  50. Q2 9:15
    +2
    Gary Payton II makes two point cutting dunk (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    29-35
  51. Q2 9:41
    Draymond Green personal foul (Mouhamed Gueye draws the foul)
  52. Q2 9:41
    Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
  53. Q2 9:54
    Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
  54. Q2 9:58
    Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
  55. Q2 10:21
    Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
  56. Q2 10:36
    +2
    De'Anthony Melton makes two point driving floating bank jump shot (Gui Santos assists)
    29-33
  57. Q2 11:07
    Hawks offensive rebound
  58. Q2 11:09
    Corey Kispert misses three point jump shot
  59. Q2 11:27
    Corey Kispert misses two point cutting layup
  60. Q2 11:37
    +3
    Brandin Podziemski makes three point running pullup jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)
    27-31
  61. Q2 11:48
    Gui Santos personal foul (Mouhamed Gueye draws the foul)
  62. Q2 12:00
    Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, Luke Kennard, Corey Kispert)
  63. Q2 12:00
    Start of 2nd Quarter
  64. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  65. Q1 00:08
    De'Anthony Melton blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker's two point driving floating jump shot
  66. Q1 00:22
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  67. Q1 00:25
    Jimmy Butler III misses three point jump shot
  68. Q1 00:38
    +2
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point stepback jump shot
    27-28
  69. Q1 1:13
    +2
    Luke Kennard makes two point cutting finger roll layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
    25-28
  70. Q1 1:20
    Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
  71. Q1 1:37
    De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
  72. Q1 1:38
    Al Horford blocks Onyeka Okongwu's two point driving hook shot
  73. Q1 2:14
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point stepback jump shot
  74. Q1 2:33
    Hawks 60 second timeout
  75. Q1 2:52
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  76. Q1 2:56
    CJ McCollum misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  77. Q1 3:47
    Hawks lineup change (CJ McCollum, Onyeka Okongwu, Mouhamed Gueye, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard)
  78. Q1 3:47
    Warriors offensive rebound
  79. Q1 3:47
    +1
    Moses Moody makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    21-18
  80. Q1 3:47
    +1
    Moses Moody makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    21-17
  81. Q1 4:03
    Moses Moody misses three point jump shot
  82. Q1 4:05
    Al Horford offensive rebound
  83. Q1 4:11
    Stephen Curry misses three point pullup jump shot
  84. Q1 4:23
    +3
    Mouhamed Gueye makes three point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
    21-16
  85. Q1 5:02
    Jalen Johnson offensive rebound
  86. Q1 5:04
    Luke Kennard misses three point running pullup jump shot
  87. Q1 5:26
    Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Al Horford, Gary Payton II, Stephen Curry, Moses Moody)
  88. Q1 5:26
    Dyson Daniels personal foul (Draymond Green draws the foul)
  89. Q1 5:40
    +3
    Jalen Johnson makes three point running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
    16-14
  90. Q1 5:44
    Vit Krejci defensive rebound
  91. Q1 6:12
    Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
  92. Q1 6:13
    Moses Moody misses three point pullup jump shot
  93. Q1 6:25
    Hawks lineup change (CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
  94. Q1 6:32
    +2
    Onyeka Okongwu makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
    11-14
  95. Q1 6:52
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  96. Q1 6:56
    Dyson Daniels misses two point driving floating jump shot
  97. Q1 7:19
    Jimmy Butler III offensive rebound
  98. Q1 7:20
    Dyson Daniels blocks Jimmy Butler III's two point driving layup
  99. Q1 7:55
    +3
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point pullup jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
    7-14
  100. Q1 8:05
    +3
    Stephen Curry makes three point jump shot (Jimmy Butler III assists)
    4-14
  101. Q1 8:24
    +1
    Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    4-11
  102. Q1 8:24
    Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  103. Q1 8:41
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  104. Q1 8:53
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  105. Q1 9:00
    Moses Moody shooting foul (Dyson Daniels draws the foul)
  106. Q1 9:00
    +1
    Dyson Daniels makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    3-9
  107. Q1 9:20
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  108. Q1 9:23
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
  109. Q1 9:41
    +2
    Jimmy Butler III makes two point layup (Draymond Green assists)
    2-6
  110. Q1 9:57
    +2
    Jalen Johnson makes two point stepback jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
    2-4
  111. Q1 10:12
    +1
    Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    0-4
  112. Q1 10:17
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  113. Q1 10:28
    Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
  114. Q1 10:31
    Dyson Daniels misses two point floating jump shot
  115. Q1 10:58
    Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
  116. Q1 10:59
    Onyeka Okongwu misses two point driving hook shot
  117. Q1 11:31
    Vit Krejci misses three point pullup jump shot
  118. Q1 11:47
    Jimmy Butler III turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  119. Q1 12:00
    Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
  120. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Hawks
PosPlayerPts
Warriors
PosPlayerPts

Hawks vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Hawks vs. Warriors
  • Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Warriors favored at -7.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Hawks +230, Warriors -250

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Hawks: 28%
  • Warriors: 72%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Hawks 114-120 Warriors.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Hawks a win probability of 28%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 72%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Warriors are more likely to beat the Hawks in the NBA game at Chase Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Hawks vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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