NBA first basket predictions and picks for Sunday, November 15, 2026

Luka Doncic leads Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Sunday, November 15, 2026, with a 21.6% chance of scoring the opening basket when his Lakers face the Suns.

But the player most likely to score first isn't always the best bet. We compare our projections with available sportsbook and prediction market odds to identify where Sunday's first basket betting value lies.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Sunday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Luka Doncic (Lakers @ Suns): 21.6% probability
• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs @ Jazz): 19.2%
• Jalen Brunson (Knicks @ Raptors): 16.1%
• Anthony Davis (Wizards vs. Rockets): 15.7%
• Cooper Flagg (Mavericks @ Celtics): 15.3%
• Paul George (Celtics vs. Mavericks): 14.5%
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder @ Kings): 14.4%
• Devin Booker (Suns vs. Lakers): 14.3%
• Tyler Herro (Bucks vs. Hawks): 13.5%
• Alperen Sengun (Rockets @ Wizards): 13.5%

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Mo Bamba (+1400)

While Luka Doncic is Sunday's likeliest first basket scorer, the Jazz' Mo Bamba offers the best betting value when comparing our in-house probabilities with available odds.

• Matchup: Spurs vs. Jazz (5:00 PM ET)
• Odds: +1400 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 6.7%
• Dimers' probability: 10.6%
• Edge: 3.9%

Our model gives Bamba a 10.6% chance of scoring the opening basket against the Spurs, compared with the 6.7% implied by FanDuel's +1400 odds.

That's a 3.9% edge, the largest identified across Sunday's first basket markets.

More NBA first basket picks, projections and offer

Our NBA player props page features our full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections show first basket probabilities for every expected starter.

Want the full picture? Unlock our full range of NBA projections and player props with Dimers Pro.

If you’re placing a first basket bet tonight, here’s the latest offer from bet365.

How we project NBA first baskets

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's scoring opportunities.

Predictions may change as starting lineups are confirmed or new injury information becomes available. Learn how our predictions work.

This article uses a human-written template, with player projections, matchups, and odds populated automatically.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.