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Best NFL Betting Strategies
Just like an NFL coach prepares for each and every game, if you're going to bet on the NFL, you need an appropriate game plan before handing over your money to the sportsbooks.
Here are Dimers' best strategies to making bank on the NFL:
Bet Early in the Season
This is when to strike.
Sportsbooks don't always have the best read on teams in the first weeks of the season. This is your golden chance to win early and often. As the season progresses, books get a greater handle and it is harder to find NFL diamonds in the rough.
How to identify value early in the season:
- Did the team sign any notable Free Agents?
- Did the team address weaknesses through the Draft and Free Agency?
- Who are their coaching staff?
- Is there familiarity between players, coaches and schemes?
These questions will help you develop a greater understanding and opportunity to exploit the sportsbooks and gain easy profits. Alternatively, you could just head to our NFL Bet Hub and we'll help you find the best odds and show you the best bets for every football game.
MORE: NFL Futures and Current Super Bowl Odds
Remove Bias
This seems the most obvious of all strategies but we are human at the end of the day. We dream of our team pulling off a big road win or the Dallas Cowboys losing by double digits but it rarely happens this way.
The best bettors remove biases to see the odds for what they are. They consider the factors below, giving them the best chance of winning.
MORE: How to Bet on NFL Games
Money Management
Before you do anything we'd strongly recommend setting yourself a limit for NFL betting – whether it be a weekly, monthly or season-long total. And you could possibly check out the the six best NFL betting strategies which will definitely help you way beyond your money management.
This will help you stay on top of your finances and keep you accountable. Betting on the National Football League can be fun but not when it causes you financial harm. Here at Dimers we want you to enjoy the game and the excitement of wagering, but to always gamble responsibly.
Don't Get Greedy
Everyone wants to make a lot of money, the more the better, right?
Unfortunately this isn't Monopoly and making big money on NFL betting isn't as easy as it looks – particularly on lengthy parlays.
Going for a 12-leg parlay seems awesome given the potential winnings but they come off once every blue moon. You're better served to find value – use Dimers' NFL Bet Hub to find the best bets for each matchup – and exploit the sportsbook in smaller-legged parlays.
Yes, the odds are lesser but your chance of winning is heightened. Striking the balance will be key to you making a profit this NFL season. So be sure to check out our responsible gambling page to understand how you can keep your football betting under control.
Shop The Spread
Sportsbooks don't exist for you to make money. Your loss is their win. So why have blind loyalty to just one book?
If you're confident a team will cover a certain number against the spread, go looking for it. Just because one book has the Detroit Lions at +3.5 doesn't mean there isn't another offering +4.5.
Can't be bothered scrolling through online betting sites? We've got you. In Dimers' NFL Bet Hub you'll find the best spread odds available for pro football in the United States.
There's no one sportsbook that we're aligned to. Often you'll see we have a different sportsbook for the spread, moneyline and total. Sometimes the spread for a game has two different books! We have no loyalty to one company, we're simply here to help you find the best odds and bets for every NFL regular season and playoff game.
MORE: What Is Spread Betting?
Do NOT Chase Back Losses
This is perhaps the hardest strategy to follow. When we suffer a crushing loss, our tendency is to try and claw back the money we've just seen walk right out of your account. Avoid this as much as possible.
The name of the game is to find an edge, find where the sportsbook has fallen asleep, and capitalize. Sometimes you'll lose and hopefully more often than not, you'll win. However, there is risk involved in every bet – there's no mystery why it's called gambling.
Before you place your next bet, do a glance through of the six things to consider before betting on an NFL game. This mindset would help you manage expectations and avoid certain hasty decisions that's driven by a desire to recover losses.
Accept losing is part of the journey and like your team after an L, put it behind you and look forward to the next opportunity.
Always remember to gamble responsibly and keep Dimers on hand to help you find your next winner.
Best Betting Strategies for the NFL Playoffs
The 2020 NFL playoffs were like nothing we have ever seen before. With no – or limited – crowds, there were a total of 14 teams in the NFL playoffs for the first time in 2020, up from 12 in previous seasons.
This meant more football, more chances to bet and – of course – more chances to win during the NFL postseason. If your team was in the NFL playoffs, congrats! If not, we hope you made some money anyway.
There were 13 games in the 2020 playoffs over four rounds. We started with Wild Card Weekend, followed by the Divisional Round, Conference Sunday, and finally, Super Bowl LV, on February 7, 2021 in Tampa, Florida.
Home-Field Advantage
Playing postseason football in your own building is really important to organizations. With that said, it's not impossible for teams to grab a playoff win on the road.
If a team is a road favorite, you're likely in luck! From 2002-2019, road teams favored by 3+ points have gone 11-5 in the playoffs. That's an astonishing 69% win rate!
Last season, with COVID-19 affecting crowds, home-field importance had shrunk. More than ever, teams had been winning on the road.
Home teams are often give three points in the spread. Last season, sportsbooks believe it is only worth a half-point advantage.
Consider Momentum
Momentum is one of the most important factors during NFL playoffs, sometimes it can lead to a Super Bowl title – hello New York Giants fans – or a great time via the NFL picks.
Let's look at some of the top performers from the 2019 NFL playoffs for context:
Tennessee Titans
- Won five of the last seven regular-season games.
- Playoffs: Beat the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens before their AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers
- Won five of the last seven regular-season games.
- Playoffs: Beat the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers before their Super Bowl loss to Patrick Mahomes and co.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Won the last five regular-season games.
- Playoffs: Beat Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers on way to Super Bowl win.
Beware the Underdog
NFL playoff betting has its pros and cons. For one, value can be harder to come by given the lesser volume of games. However, playoff time means recreational bettors are more prevalent. Often they will bet on the favored team, meaning greater value generally lies with the underdog.
If you believe the underdog has a fighting chance, you might be wise to throw some money down on the playoff dog.
Underdogs in recent playoff history:
- 2020: Won two of the six NFL Super Wild Card games.
- 2019: Won three of the four NFL Wild Card games.
- 2018: Won three of four Wild Card games.
- 2017: Won two of four Wild Card games.
Postseason Bankroll
To ensure responsible gaming it might be wise to set yourself a playoff betting limit. This will help you stay on top of your finances and keep you accountable. Betting on the National Football League can be fun but not when it causes you financial harm.
Here at Dimers, we want you to enjoy football betting and the excitement of the NFL playoffs, without it coming at a cost.
Previous Matchups
This should be the first place you look! Yes, NFL playoffs are decided by just 60 minutes on the gridiron. That's not to say there aren't telltale signs which could ensure more money in your pocket.
Some teams match up well against their opponent and have strengths which further exploit their weaknesses.
For further research – or if a team hasn't played its playoff opponent – you could analyze how a team has performed against opponents with similar characteristics to the one awaiting them in the playoffs.
Shop the Spread
Sportsbooks don't exist for you to make money. Your loss is their win. So why have blind loyalty to just one book?
If you're confident a team will cover a certain number against the spread, make sure you get it. Just because one book has the Green Bay Packers at +3.5 doesn't mean there isn't another offering +4.5.
Can't be bothered scrolling through online betting sites? We've got you. In Dimers' NFL hub you'll find the best spread, moneyline and total odds available for pro football in the United States.
We're not aligned to one sportsbook, often you'll see we have a different sportsbook for the spread, moneyline and total. Sometimes the spread for a game has two different books!
We have no loyalty to one company, we're simply here to help you find the best odds and bets for every NFL game.
If you want to go further...
If NFL futures bets are your thing, it might pay to assess possible matchups – and recent history between the two – to bet on whether teams will make it to, and past, the Divisional and Championship rounds. There are numerous options through sportsbooks to bet on future markets.
Example:
- When a team will be eliminated from the playoffs?
- How far a team will go?
- Super Bowl MVP
- Super Bowl finalists
- Super Bowl winners
If you're confident a team will make it further than advertized, be one and done, or cause the reigning champs trouble, then this could be for you.
Future bets require foresight and patience but they usually pay off more handsomely than any betting type.
Make the most of live betting
Live NFL betting exposes you to many options usually unavailable to the average bettor. The typical wagering options are available during NFL playoff games, but there are added offerings too.
Example:
- Next TD scorer
- Race to "X" Points
- Total TDs
- 1st Quarter points
- Drive Result
- Play Result
With more options available to bettors, there is greater opportunity for you to find real value in knowing how to make live bets on NFL games, catch online sportsbooks napping and capitalise on juicy odds. For a centralized place to find the latest percentages for anytime and next TD scorers, alongside best odds for live betting check out Dimers' Live Now hub.
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Gamble Responsibly
Playing at online sportsbooks, real money casinos, and sweepstakes sites should always be safe and enjoyable. Keep control of your activity by following responsible gambling guidelines such as:
Set a Budget:
Decide on a budget you’re comfortable with and stick to it. Once it’s gone, stop playing.
Don’t Chase Losses:
Trying to recover losses often leads to overspending.
Play with a Clear Head:
Avoid playing under the influence, or when angry, stressed, or tired.
Set Time Limits:
Take breaks and ensure gambling doesn’t cut into time with family or friends.
Know Your Stuff:
Learn the rules, bet types, odds, and payouts before playing to avoid mistakes.
Use Responsible Gambling Tools:
Make use of features like budget limits and self-exclusion.
If you or someone you know is struggling to gamble responsibly, these free, confidential resources can help:
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