How Do La Liga Odds Work?

Most of us have seen sports odds before and understand why a La Liga team is favored and who is the dog — particularly if FC Barcelona are playing!

La Liga betting has many popular options, particularly the spread, moneyline and over/under options. There are prop bets too, which allow you to wager on almost anything which can occur within a Spanish football match. 

Vegas usually sets the standard and determines the soccer odds for sportsbooks across the United States. Wanting to know the why behind the odds you see in our La Liga Bet Hub and sportsbooks America-wide?

All of the answers are here for you, right now!

How are La Liga odds determined?

The function of La Liga odds making isn’t to 'represent the probability' of an outcome occurring. Vegas and sportsbooks actually put forth certain odds to make a profit, in the hopes of attracting bettors to both sides (eg. either team).

Ultimately oddsmakers are playing support to the sportsbooks. They are trying to reduce the risk of sportsbooks losing large; that's what they're paid to do. 

That’s why books hate when a big favorite wins, because they lose big. La Liga betting odds certainly aren’t determined on the gut feel of a sports predicting genius. 

Sports statisticians, mathematicians and analysts are the ones behind the odds you see on a sportsbook’s site and app, and those he X’s and O’s of soccer odds involve an examination of the wider betting market, statistics and data. 

In the case of La Liga spread and moneyline bets, odds makers will look at previous matchups, form, injuries and even weather forecast to determine the odds. It isn’t that simple of course, algorithms and other nerdy stuff go into it, but this gives you an idea.

In other words, it’s not too different to Dimers’ predictive analytics model where 10,000 simulations of every La Liga game are conducted, based on the variables above, all to give you an unrivalled edge before you make that winning play. 

MORE: How to Bet on La Liga Soccer Games

Why are La Liga odds not real probabilities?

Like any business, sportsbooks want to make a profit. They don’t sell clothes or shoes, but they do sell odds to you, the bettor. How do they profit? Let’s look at the below.

Example:

  • FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid @ Nou Camp
  • Barcelona  -250 (implied probability of 71.43%)
  • Real Madrid +200 (implied probability = 33.33%)

 

If you look closely, you'll notice those percentages don’t add up. Well, they do of course, just not to 100% (note, we had to use a calculator). The sum of the two percentages above equal 104.76%. How can an El Clásico game have an implied probability of 104%?

It can’t really. The extra 4% is the profit margin this sportsbook is taking home. And with such a strategy, a book will inevitably guarantee a profit over time.

MORE: Betting Strategies for La Liga

Favorites lose = Sportsbooks win

When there’s a big upset during the La Liga season, bookmakers rejoice. This is because most of the money is heavily poured on the favorite, meaning the sportsbook takes all of it home. Big favorites losing is a sportsbooks’ golden goose.

Now that you know where odds come from, find the best La Liga odds in America with Dimers. We have exclusive promo codes for each of the biggest and most secure sportsbooks. If you’re wanting to succeed at basketball betting, check out our La Liga Bet Hub.

Why do sportsbooks have similar odds?

Sports betting is going gangbusters on a global scale. Howver, somewhat surprisingly, soccer betting is far more advanced in places like Australia, United Kingdom and Asia, while it is just getting started in America.

Due to the globalization of soccer betting it isn’t uncommon for sportsbooks to simply copy the odds of other books. This method is cost effective and they end up with the same odds without all the data and betting analytics research we discussed above.

We don’t know which books copy others but we do know how you can find the best odds for every La Liga game.

MORE: What Sports Can I Bet On?

How to take advantage of La Liga odds

Sportsbooks look to make money off your bets, and set odds in such a way to favor their interests. So, how do we fight back and win money from sports betting?

The answer is simple — take advantage of the edge.

What is the edge, you ask? 

This is where the probability of an event occurring is more likely than what's indicated by the sportsbook’s odds. In other words, our predictive analytics model suggests a soccer team or player has a much better chance of winning than the sportsbooks think! 

Taking these bets gives you a better chance of being a successful gambler long-term. Of course, the higher the edge, the better. While you’re not guaranteed a W by betting the edge (a lot of edges are on underdogs too), taking picks with an edge gives you a greater chance of being profitable. This is super important when trying to be a successful La Liga bettor.

For every major sports match including La Liga, EPL, NFL, College Hoops and more, Dimers has the edge and exclusive promotional codes waiting for you.

More from Dimers
About Dimers
icon 22,000+
Events covered per year
icon 8,000,000+
Users
Our partners
FanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMbet365