How do College Football Odds work?

ost of us have seen sports odds before and understand why a College Football team is favored and the other is a dog — particularly if the Alabama Crimson Tide are playing!

College Football betting has many popular options, particularly the spread, Moneyline and Over/Under options. There are prop bets too, which allow you to wager on almost anything which can occur within a NCAA Football game. 

Vegas usually sets the standard and determines the College Football odds for sportsbooks across the United States. Wanting to know the 'why' behind the odds you see in our CFB Bet Hub and sportsbooks America-wide?

All of the answers are here for you, right now!

How are College Football odds determined?

The function of College Football odds making isn’t to truly represent the probability of an outcome occurring. Vegas and sportsbooks actually put forth certain odds to make a profit and in the hopes of attracting bettors to both sides (either team etc). 

Ultimately oddsmakers are in cahoots with sportsbooks. They are trying to reduce the risk of sportsbooks losing big. 

That’s why books hate when a big favorite wins, because they lose heavily. NCAA Football betting odds certainly aren’t determined on the gut feel of a sports predicting genius. 

Sports analysts, whom usually coming from a statistics or mathematics background, are pulling the levers behind the odds you see on a sportsbook’s site or app. An examination of the wider betting market, statistics and data help to form the X’s and O’s of football odds. 

In the case of CFB moneyline and spread bets, odds makers will look at everything. This will typically include previous matchups, form, injuries and even weather forecast to help determine the odds. Of course, with all these things, it's not that simple, with algorithms and other nerdy stuff also going into it, but this gives you an idea. 

In other words, it’s not too different to Dimers’ predictive analytics model where 10,000 simulations of each CFB game are conducted, based on the variables above, all to give you an unrivaled edge before you make that winning play. 

Why are College Football odds not real probabilities?

Like any business, sportsbooks want to make a profit. They don’t sell hammers or nails, but they do sell odds to you, the bettor. So, that begs the questions, how do they profit?

Let’s look at the below example:

  • Florida Gators @ Louisiana State University
  • Florida  -250 (implied probability of 71.43%)
  • LSU +200 (implied probability = 33.33%)

 

As you might have noticed, those percentages don’t add up to 100%. The sum of the two percentages actually equals 104.76%. How can an SEC Football game have an implied probability of 104%?! 

It can’t really. The extra 4% is the profit margin this sportsbook is taking home. With such a strategy — commonly implemented across America— a book will make a profit over time.

Favorites lose = Sportsbook win

When there’s a big upset during the College Football season, bookmakers rejoice. This is because most of the money is heavily poured on the favorite, meaning the sportsbook takes all of it home. Big favorites losing is a sportsbook’s golden goose.

Now that you know where odds come from, find the best CFB odds in America with Dimers. We have exclusive promo codes for each of the biggest and most secure sportsbooks. If you’re wanting to succeed at basketball betting, check out our College Football Bet Hub.

Why do the sportsbooks all have similar odds?

Sports betting is going gangbusters on a global scale. Surprisingly, College Football betting is far more advanced in places like Europe, Asia and Australia, while it is just getting started in America (Vegas aside of course).

Due to the globalization of CFB betting, it isn’t uncommon for sportsbooks to simply copy the odds of other books. This method is cost effective and they end up with the same odds without all the data and betting analytics research. 

We don’t know which books copy others but we do know how you can find the best odds for every major sport in the United States.

How to take advantage of CFB odds

Sportsbooks look to make money off your bets, and set odds in such a way to favor their interests. So, how do we fight back and win money from sports betting?

The answer is simple — take advantage of the edge. What is the edge, you ask? 

This is where the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the sportsbook’s odds. In other words, our predictive analytics model suggests a football team/player has a much better chance of winning than the sportsbooks think.

Taking these bets gives you a better chance of being a successful gambler long-term. Of course, the higher the edge, the better. While you’re not guaranteed to take the win by betting an edge, taking picks with an edge gives you a greater chance of being profitable well into the future.

For every major sports match including CFB, NFL, College Basketball, NBA and more, Dimers indicates the edge, along with recommending exclusive sportsbook promo codes.

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