Flávio Bolsonaro already has the Oval Office photo and the Truth Social compliment. What he still doesn't have, with Brazil's first round under two weeks away, is an endorsement from Donald Trump, and Kalshi traders are split almost down the middle on whether it ever comes.
Kalshi Has the Endorsement Odds at 44%
Kalshi's "Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro?" market currently prices Yes at 44%. Yes contracts trade at 41 cents and No at 62 cents, with roughly $8,600 in volume, and payout is set for October 26, 2026, the day after Brazil's scheduled runoff.
The chart is the real story. Yes sat close to 90% in mid-August and hovered around 75% to 80% for weeks, so a Trump nod looked like a formality. Then, around September 17, it fell apart. Under 30% at the low point, a bounce into the mid-50s, and now back in the 40s.
It's a good example of why Kalshi stands out on any
list of prediction markets, since one cross-border political question gets priced in real time, a whole mood swing on a single chart.
The Oval Office Meeting Came First
Flávio, a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, flew to Washington in late May without a guaranteed meeting and still got an Oval Office photo with Trump on May 26, posted with just a thumbs-up emoji.
Trump followed up on June 2. His Truth Social post called Flávio "a smart young man who loves his country, Brazil, very much." Warm words, but not an endorsement, and that gap is basically what this market trades on. Flávio made the run official at the Liberal Party convention in São Paulo on July 25, his father still imprisoned and barred from office.
Tariffs and A Leak Hit Mid-September
The drop lines up with a rough week. Brazilian papers reported on a leaked U.S. draft from last year's tariff talks that asked Brazil to commit to free elections and leave political dissidents alone in exchange for relief from 50% tariffs.
Lula's government had called the terms unacceptable. Flávio moved fast to distance himself. "There is no American government help," he told reporters on September 17, calling that narrative one that "won't stick."
Why An Endorsement Could Cut Both Ways
A Meio/Ideia poll from early August shows why Flávio might not rush for a public blessing. Only 20% of all voters said Trump's support would make them more likely to back a candidate, while 44.9% disagreed. Among Flávio's own voters, 38.1% said it would.
Anyone following
politics prediction markets
will recognize the setup. An endorsement fires up the base but also hands Lula a ready-made "foreign interference" line, in a race Kalshi's winner market had at 55% Flávio and 44% Lula on September 15.
What Could Move the Market Next
The first round is October 4, with a runoff on October 25 if needed. One Truth Social post could send Yes toward 100% overnight, and a quiet Trump drains it day by day, so Kalshi traders have a very live, very binary month ahead.
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