Will Strait of Hormuz Traffic Return to Normal By the End of April?

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to most marine traffic since February, when the US and Israel launched their war. Ever since, Donald Trump has been on a mission to get the Strait reopened.

Trump is promising to permanently reopen the Strait and is planning to start anti-mine operations to clear the mines. This begs the question: Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal before the end of April? Let’s dive into the current events and track how the prediction market is performing as we speak.

What’s the Latest on the Strait of Hormuz?

First and foremost, let’s get up to speed with the current happenings with the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait has been closed since late February, when the war between Trump and Israel started. Iran hit back by shutting the Strait, which they achieved by deploying some small surface vessels to lay mines. It’s not currently known how many mines Iran laid, and Iran has announced that it can’t locate all of the mines, nor can it remove them.

Iran mapped out a route, leaving a clear path for any ships that Iran approves to pass. In addition to the mines, Iran also has drones, fast-attack vessels, and missiles, all protecting the Strait against unwanted traffic.

With Trump's recent promise, there has been some significant movement in politics prediction markets:

Key Factors: Why Has the Traffic Not Improved in the Strait?

Iran has never publicly announced how many mines it deployed. It’s also rumored that there aren’t any mines at all, although believing this will be a huge risk for any passing vessels. While mines are relatively easy to lay, clearing them takes a lot of labor and is a dangerous mission for the crew. As such, not many insurance companies have been willing to cover the trip, making it seemingly unlikely, which is impacting the prediction markets.

Trump has announced that he plans to start anti-mine operations to reopen the waterway. Experts have noted that it would be a better option and much less risky to launch uncrewed vehicles. Mine-hunting vehicles like a Knifefish undersea mine hunter would be ideal, as it doesn’t require any crew and are submersible.

Either way, Trump will have to make a tough decision. It’s thought that Iran has deployed Maham 3 and Maham 7 mines, which don’t require any physical contact between the ship and the mine. Instead, these mines use acoustic sensors to detect when a vessel is nearby. With the Strait being a narrow waterway, any vehicles that attempt to remove the mines are easy targets.

Conclusion: Market Activity Suggests That It’s Unlikely to Reopen in April

Weighing up the risks of clearing the mines, the market activity is suggesting that the Strait reopening by the end of April is unlikely. Currently, the market is swinging more towards the waterway opening by the end of June. Tap the promotional banners on this page to visit our recommended prediction market sites to track the performance first-hand.