Most traders on Kalshi don't seem to think OpenAI is going to raise the price of ChatGPT, not this year anyway.
The Kalshi market on whether OpenAI raises the price of ChatGPT before 2027 shows a 8% chance at the time of writing, with a little over two months left on the clock for this year, and that's way down from the 65.5% where it started in January.
What the Kalshi Market Is Asking
The wording is narrow, and that matters. The market resolves Yes only if ChatGPT Plus or Pro increases in price after December 19, 2024, and before January 1, 2027. When the market opened, Plus cost $20 a month and Pro $200, both written into the rules as the baseline.
That said, the more affordable ChatGPT Go plan doesn’t count. Neither do any additional paid plans that OpenAI could potentially introduce before the end of the year.
At the time of writing, the market has attracted over $190,000 in trading volume, and traders deem a price increase highly unlikely – Yes contracts are priced at $0.08, meaning there’s an implied probability of only 8% that OpenAI will raise the price before 2027. Predictions were favorable at the start of 2026, but have steadily declined over the year.
Of course, this is only the implied probability based on market consensus. If you wish to see what traders on other platforms think, take a look at some of the other leading
prediction market apps.
Where OpenAI’s Pricing Stands
ChatGPT Plus is priced at $20 a month. The Pro plan is where it got complicated. OpenAI split Pro into three monthly tiers: $100, $200, and $500.
The $100 option showed up in April, aimed at heavy Codex users. Then in late September came a $500 plan with faster models included, and the bit that caught people out: new Pro 200 subscribers started getting a lower usage allowance than the plan used to carry, still priced at $200.
Existing Pro 200 users who qualify for grandfathering keep the old allowance through October 29, 2026. After that, they drop to the lower level too, and the price doesn't change.
A Price Rise in All but Name
Paying the same $200 for lower usage limits feels a lot like a price increase if you're the one paying it. Still, the price of the plan didn’t change on paper, and the Kalshi market simply doesn’t factor in something like this.
There's pressure in the other direction, too. ChatGPT Go launched in the US at $8 a month in January, and OpenAI said it planned to test ads in the Free and Go tiers, while promising Plus, Pro, Business, and Enterprise would stay ad-free. Ad revenue gives OpenAI another way to make money without touching the pricing of its paid plans.
Anyone following this alongside other
tech predictions
will notice the same pattern: AI companies tend to add tiers and adjust limits rather than change the headline number.
What Could Still Move the Probability
For the contracts to settle as a Yes, OpenAI would need to increase the official price of the Plus or Pro plans before New Year's Day, and there is no announcement pointing that way right now.
The Pro 200 grandfathering deadline on October 29 is the next date worth watching, more for the reaction from subscribers than for anything in the contract itself.
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