With the Venice Film Festival on the horizon, cineasts are looking closely at the main markets for the best director prize at prediction platforms like Kalshi; while there is a standout favorite, the running is still relatively open.
Martin McDonagh, showing Wild Horse Nine, is currently the front runner, but there are other names in the frame; indeed, they’re some of the most respected names in all of cinema, so there is likely to be a lot of interest between now and the end of the festival on September 12th. As no film has yet screened, the prices presently reflect reputation rather than the strength of the films themselves.
What We Know So Far
Ahead of the opening of the festival, there are some clear trends:
- McDonagh leads Kalshi’s market for the Silver Lion at 37%
- Werner Herzog is second at 18%, with Danny Boyle (13%) third
- At this stage, the race must be seen as highly competitive
Why Martin Mcdonagh Leads The Market
Martin McDonagh has directed a swathe of films that have been well received at Venice in the past, and Wild Horse Nine offers him a chance at his first Best Director prize
His Films Have Scooped Best Screenplay Twice
While McDonagh is still to win the Best Director Silver Lion, his movies have picked up awards at the festival. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin have both triumphed here in 2017 and 2022 respectively.
He’s Never Won It Before
Counterintuitive as it may seem, the fact that Martin McDonagh still hasn’t won the Best Director title does perhaps help his case. Given his strong performance with Best Screenplay winners, the jury may well feel that it’s time he won personally.
The Film’s Strong Cast
Prestige actors will always draw the attention of film juries, and Wild Horse Nine fulfils that brief in some style. John Malkovich, Steve Buscemi and Parker Posey are just three names from an eye-catching ensemble for this production and explain its popularity at
culture prediction sites
as things stand.
Factors That Could Prevent a McDonagh Win
Perhaps the strongest arguments against McDonagh winning his first personal Silver Lion are in the competition he faces:
He’s Up Against Silver-Screen Royalty
Werner Herzog is showing his latest release, Bucking Fastard, and is rated at 18% to win here. And like McDonagh, he’s yet to win this award although he has plucked a Lifetime Achievement bauble in Venice. Danny Boyle, here with Ink, is another strong competitor who also has zero Best Director trophies.
Possible Award-Splitting Decisions
As already noted, there is more to Wild Horse Nine than McDonagh’s direction. With a strong cast - and a history of McDonagh projects winning Best Screenplay - it could be that the movie wins while McDonagh loses as the jury seeks to spread the love.
Big International Field
This isn’t the Oscars; Venice does not have a clear bias towards Hollywood productions. So Hirokazu Koreeda could win for Look Back, or Korean director Lee Chang-dong’s Ganeunghan sarang (Possible Love) could be winners here, too.
What Analysts and Forecast Models Are Saying
The strongest case for McDonagh to win the award is made by the
prediction market sites
right now. He is comfortable favorite and the prices have him twice as likely to win as his next closest competitor. That’s no guarantee of what will actually happen - it’s a competitive enough field that there are at least five possible winners - but he’s heading the speculation right now.
How to Trade This Question at Kalshi
Right now, if we were picking the winner, we’d be minded to stick with McDonagh. At 37%, a win would still represent a significant gain particularly for those who trade at higher volumes. There’s competition for sure, but 37% is precisely where we would want to be right now.
| Director | Film | Kalshi Price |
| Martin McDonagh | Wild Horse Nine | 37% |
| Werner Herzog | Bucking Fastard | 18% |
| Danny Boyle | Ink | 13% |
| Lee Chang-dong | Ganeunghan sarang | 7% |
| Hirokazu Koreeda | Look Back | 6% |
And you can make your predictions now by heading over to Kalshi with just one click on our banners and links, and seeking out the markets for Best Director.
McDonagh Favored For A Reason
This is a highly competitive field with a lot of experienced, prestigious directors involved, and for sure there could be a surprise winner - and there’s the question of Herzog and Boyle, both with similar profiles to McDonagh. But as the early front runner, he’s definitely as strong a contender as there could be. If you want to trade on this question at Kalshi, click the banners on this page to get started.
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