A song that just broke Mariah Carey's all-time Hot 100 record would usually be an easy pick. Kalshi traders mostly agree, giving "Choosin' Texas" a 97% chance to take Song of the Year at the 60th Annual CMA Awards, though the market has one strange wrinkle worth a closer look.
Kalshi Has “Choosin’ Texas” Way Out in Front
Here's where the "CMA Awards: Song of the Year" market stood on September 23:
| Song | Kalshi Chance |
| Choosin’ Texas | 97% |
| Be Her | 16% |
| Beautiful Things | Under 1% |
| Dry Spell | Under 1% |
| Gary | No trades yet |
| A tie | 74% |
Total volume is about $1,336, so it's still an early, thin market with roughly eight weeks to go. The chart has barely wobbled. "Choosin' Texas" opened near 90%, slipped to the mid-60s for a couple of days around September 12, and has bounced between roughly 80% and the high 90s ever since.
That Tie line is the odd one. It jumped 73 points in a single day on September 23, yet its Yes contracts only cost 35 cents, which says more about a handful of trades in a quiet market than any real expectation of a split decision. Seeing all of that on one board, every nominee plus a tie option and a full price history, is a big part of why Kalshi stands out among
prediction market sites.
The Five Nominees and Who Wrote Them
Song of the Year goes to the songwriters, not the performer. The CMA announced the field on September 10. Ella Langley shows up twice. "Choosin' Texas" was written with Luke Dick, Miranda Lambert, and first-time nominee Joybeth Taylor, and "Be Her" with Smith Ahnquist, also a first-timer, plus Michael Hardy and Jordan Schmidt.
"Beautiful Things" is Megan Moroney's, co-written with Jessi Alexander, Jessie Jo Dillon and Connie Harrington. Then Kacey Musgraves' "Dry Spell," co-written with Luke Laird, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne, which pushes Musgraves to 27 career CMA nominations, so hardly a long shot on paper.
"Gary" stands apart. Stephen Wilson Jr. wrote it alone, the only solo credit in the category, and it's one of five career CMA nods for him. Nobody has traded it yet.
Why the Market Leans So Hard One Way
It's the chart run. "Choosin' Texas" logged its 23rd week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this month, passing the 22 weeks held by "All I Want for Christmas Is You," and Langley enters the night with a field-leading nine nominations.
Two of the five nominees carrying her name doesn't hurt either. If "Choosin' Texas" somehow slips, traders have "Be Her" pegged as the backup at 16%, well clear of the other three. Fans tracking
culture prediction markets
will know how often awards boards get upset, but a record-setting hit with Lambert on the credits is tough to bet against.
When the Market Settles
The show airs live on ABC on November 18 from Nashville's Bridgestone Arena, with Lainey Wilson hosting. Until then, the "Choosin' Texas" price is the one to track, because a fresh slide below 80% would be the clearest sign traders think an upset is actually brewing.
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