Last November, The Red Clay Strays ended Old Dominion's seven-year hold on Vocal Group of the Year, and plenty of people called it an upset. Kalshi traders aren't treating a repeat as one, though. The Alabama band now sits at 78% to win again at the 60th Annual CMA Awards.
Kalshi Has The Red Clay Strays Clear of the Pack
Here's how the "CMA Awards: Vocal Group of the Year" market looked on September 23:
| Group | Kalshi Chance |
| The Red Clay Strays | 78% |
| Old Dominion | 18% |
| Lady A | 5% |
| Little Big Town | No trades yet |
| Midland | No trades yet |
| A tie | Under 1% |
The Red Clay Strays gained 12 points in a day, and Yes contracts cost 80 cents, with about $2,801 traded so far. The chart has swung hard. In the thin first week, Lady A held the top spot, somewhere near 90%, before collapsing to single digits around September 18.
Old Dominion then shot to roughly 50%, level with The Red Clay Strays for a few days, and has since drifted back below 20% as money moved toward the defending champs. Following a board shift like that in real time, one group handing over to the next, is exactly what makes Kalshi one of the more useful
prediction market apps
for awards season.
The Five Groups in the Running
The CMA confirmed the field on September 10. It's nearly last year's line-up, with one swap: Midland in, Rascal Flatts out.
Plenty of history on the ballot. Old Dominion won seven straight from 2018 to 2024, and before that Little Big Town took six in a row from 2012. Lady A, winning as Lady Antebellum back then, has three trophies from 2009 through 2011. Midland is the odd one out. No wins in this category yet, and on Kalshi nobody has even bought in.
What Could Shape the Result
Momentum mostly. The Red Clay Strays arrive as defending winners, and CMA voters have a habit of sticking with a group once it breaks through, which is how those long Old Dominion and Little Big Town runs happened in the first place.
The band's profile keeps climbing, too. On September 21, right as their Kalshi price started to climb, The Red Clay Strays were announced as the very first act at Mobile's new Regions Arena, a hometown show set for March 26, 2027 with St. Paul & The Broken Bones opening. Not a CMA factor directly, but it's the kind of headline that keeps a group top of mind.
Old Dominion is the obvious threat, a group the CMA membership backed seven years running, and at 23 cents for Yes it's the contract that would pay off most if voters swing back.
Anyone who follows
culture prediction sites
knows awards markets can get jumpy this early, especially with under $3,000 in volume, so the current number is a lean rather than a lock.
When the Answer Arrives
The 60th Annual CMA Awards air live on ABC on November 18 from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, hosted by Lainey Wilson, which leaves about eight weeks for traders to test whether The Red Clay Strays' first win was a turning point or a one-off.
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