Democrats are fighting to gain or protect supermajorities in several state legislatures in the 2026 midterms, and Kalshi traders can predict which chambers will finish above the required threshold.
The most interesting contract in the market right now is the Colorado House of Representatives. As of October 19, Kalshi showed a 54% chance of Democrats reaching the required 44 of 65 seats in the state.
Trading is still extremely light however, with the entire market only having $211 in trading volume so far. You can also compare Kalshi with other
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Why Is Colorado the Main Battleground?
Democrats currently hold 43 of 65 seats in the Colorado House, leaving them just one seat short of the 44 required for a two-thirds supermajority. Republicans broke the previous Democratic supermajority by gaining three seats in 2024.
The Senate is just as close. Democrats currently hold 23 of 35 seats and 24 are needed for a two-thirds supermajority. That means they only need to gain one seat.
Winning both chambers would give Democrats much more control over state lawmaking. With a two-thirds majority in the House and Senate, they could override a governor's veto and put proposed changes to the state constitution before voters without needing Republican support.
Democratic are actively trying to reach that mark. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has identified Colorado as one of the states where the party has a chance to secure supermajorities in both chambers in 2026.
What About California?
Kalshi also lists contracts for the California Assembly and California Senate, with thresholds of 54 of 80 Assembly seats and 27 of 40 Senate seats, as of October 19.
Unlike Colorado, California Democrats already have enough seats for a supermajority.
Current figures put Democrats at 60 seats in the Assembly and 29 in the Senate, although those numbers can change because of vacancies.
This means Democrats don't need to gain a supermajority in California, but instead the question is whether they can keep the one they already have after the 2026 election.
All 80 Assembly seats are up for election on November 3, along with 20 of the state’s 40 Senate seats. That gives Republicans a chance to cut into the Democratic advantage.
Other States to Watch
Colorado isn't the only state where Democrats could gain more power in 2026. Maine, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington, as well as Colorado, are also states where Democrats could gain new legislative supermajorities.
At the same time, Democrats have to defend some of the large majorities they already hold. California, Connecticut and Delaware are among the states where the party could lose a supermajority in at least one chamber. This gives traders two things to watch on election night.
For now, Colorado stands out as one of the closest races. Democrats need to gain only one House seat and one Senate seat to reach the two-thirds mark in both chambers.
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