Quick Facts About Commodity Prediction Markets
- Commodity prediction markets are regulated by the US CFTC.
- You can trade events on metals, oil, gas, and others.
- Commodity contracts cost $0.01-$0.99 and settle at $1 each if you’re correct.
How Commodity Prediction Markets Work
In commodity prediction markets, you have Yes or No contracts indicating opposite outcomes. You buy Yes if you predict an event to happen and No otherwise, and that’s simply how it works. The prediction markets are peer-to-peer, so there have to be traders on both sides for each buy or sell to execute.
As confirmed during our review, the event contract prices stay between $0.01 and $0.99. If your prediction is correct, you win and receive a $1 payout for each contract. However, if incorrect, the contracts no longer hold value.
From what we saw, commodities can be standalone on a prediction market platform. However, most of the time, the options are classified under finance or economics. If you install
economy prediction market apps, for example, you’ll likely see commodity events among the options.
Commodity Event Trading Example
To better understand commodity prediction markets, let’s take a simple example with gold:
| Event | Yes contract | No contract |
| Will gold hit $3,900 in May? | $0.41 | $0.60 |
If you predict that gold will reach the stated price within the month, you buy Yes contracts for $0.41 each. Let’s say you purchase 100 contracts, which would cost you $41. If gold does hit $3,900, you’ll receive a $100 payout, meaning a $59 profit.
As the market is P2P, the prices also reflect general trader perceptions of the outcomes. For instance, the prices in the above table mean gold has about a 41% ($0.41) probability of hitting $3,900 and a 60% chance of not.
If you sum up $0.41 and $0.60, you have $1.01. That additional $0.01 is the spread, and it’s caused by the variance between bid and ask prices.
Best Commodity Prediction Market Apps in the US
We’ve explained the basics of how commodity prediction market platforms work. If you’re ready to trade, these are the top three sites and apps we recommend:
Kalshi – Best for Hourly Commodity Predictions
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Fully CFTC-regulated exchange
- Diverse markets including sports, politics, and economics
- Supports PayPal, Venmo, and Crypto deposits
- Highly rated mobile app for iOS and Android
- Trading fees apply to both makers and takers
- Bank withdrawals can take several business days
Kalshi is one of the few prediction market brands with hourly commodity event contracts. In other words, you predict the performance of a particular commodity in the next 60 minutes or less, depending on when you open your position.
On Kalshi, we saw hourly event contracts for WTI, silver, and gold prediction markets. For each one, you simply predict whether the commodity price will be above or below a set figure. The platform uses Pyth, which we recognize as a renowned data source in the global finance industry.
Besides the hourly contracts, Kalshi also includes daily, weekly, monthly, and annual events. These other intervals feature outcomes for natural gas, gasoline, copper, and tech.
Polymarket – Top Choice for Up/Down Outcomes
Pros and Cons of Polymarket
- Licensed by CFTC
- Covers various real-life events
- Dedicated mobile app
We consider Up or Down to be one of the simplest ways to trade in prediction markets. You simply pick whether the price of the commodity will increase or decrease from the moment the market opens until it closes. In this area, Polymarket is our top choice.
While reviewing Polymarket, we found daily Up or Down prediction markets for gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. The site displays Up in green and Down in red, so it’s easy to pick them out. Plus, there’s a bold gauge showing the probability of the Up outcome.
If you want to trade commodity prediction markets on Polymarket in the US, you have to install the iOS app. The platform isn’t available via web or on Android yet.
Robinhood – Ideal for Daily Trading
Robinhood: Pros and Cons
- Fully regulated via CFTC oversight
- Integrated into the main Robinhood app
- 4 billion+ contracts traded within its first year
- Event contracts blocked in Maryland, sports contracts blocked in Nevada
You can consider Robinhood for trading event contracts to predict daily commodity prices. From what we saw on the site, it covers a good range of categories. You have outcomes for WTI, Brent crude, natural gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and more.
The daily commodity prediction markets usually involve picking over or under on price projections. You can trade event contracts that’ll settle in two or three days rather than 24 hours or a week. That provides sufficient room to follow the market and sell early when possible.
Robinhood fully allows trading commodity event contracts on its website on PC or mobile. Based on our tests, the brand also has one of the best apps for Android and iOS.
Are Commodity Event Trading Sites Legal in the US?
The top commodity event trading sites we recommend are regulated by the CFTC. As a result, they operate legally in the US under federal oversight. At the state level, however, the situation varies.
Prediction markets are generally not subject to individual state betting regulators because they’re not sportsbooks. However, the platforms still exclude a few locations. Therefore, before joining any of our top apps for commodity prediction markets, you should confirm that it’s available in your state.
Common Commodity Prediction Market Categories
In our reviews, we saw prediction markets grouped according to the type of commodities you can trade on. Here are the three most popular categories from our findings:
Here, the focus is on products used to generate power and fuel transportation. The most common we noted are crude oil prediction markets, especially Brent Crude and WTI Crude. However, heating oil, natural gas, and gasoline are also popular.
In this commodity prediction market category, you predict future prices or movements of the mentioned energy products. The outcome can be about the global or national price, or rates in specific US cities. An example of the latter is predicting how low gas prices will get in Texas or New York in a year.
When it comes to metals, we’re talking about gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium, among others. As such, it covers both precious and industrial metals.
On most US
prediction market apps, you trade whether the metal price will move up or down or go above or below a particular figure. In our experience, you can also trade on the prices hitting a specific target within a month or a year.
Another interesting option is metals against other derivatives, such as Gold vs Bitcoin. You predict which of the two products will perform best price-wise, within a given timeframe.
🌾 Agriculture and livestock
As the description suggests, this category covers crop and animal prediction markets. Examples include trading contracts on the price of corn, wheat, cotton, and live cattle. That said, these markets may not always be open since some of the commodities attract low liquidity.
The more common options in this category include eggs and beef. For instance, you can trade on whether the price of eggs will go up or down in a month or what ground beef will cost before the end of the year.
How We Rank the Best Sites for Commodity Prediction Markets
To keep things transparent, here are the factors we checked when ranking the best commodity prediction market platforms on our list:
| Factor | Description |
| Available commodities | At a minimum, a suitable prediction market site must cover metals, oil, and gas products. |
| Liquidity | We look at platforms with a high number of users that can add liquidity when a commodity trading market opens. |
| Data sources | It’s important for the prediction market site to get its price data from verifiable sources. Platforms that hide this information don’t make our list. |
| Usability | The best sites and apps we rank must be easy to browse on different devices. |
| Platform fees | If trading and withdrawal fees are on the low side, you keep more of the returns from your trades. |
| Customer service | We consider the available support channels on each prediction market site, plus their response speed. |
We observed these upsides and downsides while analyzing commodity prediction markets in the US:
Pros and Cons
- Many energy and metals predictions
- CFTC-regulated platforms
- Commodity data from trusted sources
- Agricultural commodities are limited
Expert Tips for Commodity Prediction Market Trading
Registering on the best commodity prediction market apps can be an advantage. However, you still need to do your homework carefully if you wish to make the most of your trades. Here are our pro tips to assist you:
Check the Data Source
Our first piece of advice is to always verify where the prediction market gets its data. That’s because different commodities use varying sources, even on the same site. For instance, we saw gold prices from Pyth, WTI Crude from ICE, and ground beef from the St. Louis Fed.
Thankfully, the commodity prediction market app will list its source below the event contracts. Check the source so you know which prices you’re working with.
Consider Your Location
Some commodity prediction market options are location-specific. For example, contracts on gas or eggs can be based on prices in a particular state, like Texas or New York, as we mentioned earlier. If you live in that area, you may have better insights into predicting local market conditions.
Watch What Moves the Commodities
As experts, we know that varying factors affect different commodity prices, and here are some notable mentions:
| Factor | Description |
| Available commodities | At a minimum, a suitable prediction market site must cover metals, oil, and gas products. |
| Liquidity | We look at platforms with a high number of users that can add liquidity when a commodity trading market opens. |
| Data sources | It’s important for the prediction market site to get its price data from verifiable sources. Platforms that hide this information don’t make our list. |
| Usability | The best sites and apps we rank must be easy to browse on different devices. |
| Platform fees | If trading and withdrawal fees are on the low side, you keep more of the returns from your trades. |
| Customer service | We consider the available support channels on each prediction market site, plus their response speed. |
We suggest monitoring what moves a market rather than just how the price responds.
Start with Small Positions
If you’re new to commodity prediction market sites, skip products that record large price swings. In our opinion, natural gas and crude oil are among the most volatile options. You may want to consider more stable commodities such as gold and eggs.
Don’t Trade with More Than You Can Afford
Finally, always trade responsibly. You’re investing real money into the prediction markets, so have a budget before buying event contracts. Don’t increase your position after a loss because you want to recover your money. Instead, take a break, conduct more research, and you can resume trading later.
Conclusion – Trade on the Best Commodity Prediction Market Site
Commodity prediction markets are ideal if you’re the type who follows finance and economics news. You can trade contracts on the prices of oil, gas, gold, silver, and copper. Agricultural items may be limited, but you’ll regularly find events for everyday products like eggs and beef.
Following our reviews, we believe choosing the best commodity prediction market site or app won’t be difficult. Just select from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Then, tap the banners on this page to visit the platform and register an account.
As you trade, remember to apply our expert tips. Most importantly, start small, do research, and don’t invest above your budget.
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Commodity Prediction Market Sites FAQs
🛢️ What Are Commodity Prediction Markets?
Commodity prediction markets are platforms where you trade event contracts on the prices of energy products, metals, and others. You buy Yes if you support an outcome, and No if you don’t.
📱 What Is the Best Commodity Prediction Market App?
The best commodity prediction market app depends on your priorities. You can choose from our top three on this page, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood.
🇺🇸 Where Can I Trade Commodity Event Contracts in the US?
You can trade commodity event contracts in various states in the US since they’re regulated by the CFTC. That said, the derivatives are unavailable in a few locations, which you should confirm before trading.
đź’µ How Do I Make Money in Commodity Prediction Markets?
You make money in commodity prediction markets if your trades are successful. The platforms pay $1 per event contract. However, keep in mind that outcomes are uncertain, so it’s more important to trade responsibly.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Ryan Leaver
as part of our fact-checking process.
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