NFL Week 3 betting guide: Model backed picks, top player props and sharp Pick 'Ems

Week 3 arrives with no shortage of NFL betting action, major storylines and roster shakeups, which means we're back with another look at the most notable angles from the weekly slate.

Between prediction markets opening a new way of sports trading and sportsbooks ramping up the promos, NFL betting will be at an all-time high this season and we are here to make sure you don't miss a beat as we head into Week 3.

That's where Dimers Pro comes in, fresh off another productive week across the Dimers Pro suite of NFL prediction tools.

Admin sure is surprised the Browns have won a game but our prediction model wasn't.

We spotted the mispriced line on several exchanges and sportsbooks as Cleveland blow up Survivor pools all over the country. pic.twitter.com/X0dM8QdPmZ

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 20, 2026

All season long, whether you're betting game lines with our best NFL bets, hunting a touchdown edge in our NFL player props, digging into our NFL player projections hub, or tracking Super Bowl futures, the Dimers model does the heavy lifting so you can bet based on data, not guesswork.

Find the narrative, check the data and let the numbers inside our NFL predictions do the rest while you sit back and take in every game this season.

Below, we break down the week's biggest storylines, our model's top spread and moneyline picks, and the players, markets and scenarios most worth your attention.

Three storylines to watch in Week 3

1. Backup QBs take center stage

As many as six backup quarterbacks will start on Sunday, three of which were added to the mix after Week 2 injuries to their team's respective starters.

Giants QB Jaxson Dart, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Bears QB Caleb Williams will all miss Week 3, and varying degrees of time after. You can find a deep dive into each game here, but there's a different angle we're looking at based on what's appeared in our model's projections.

The biggest beneficiaries look to be the backfield leaders, as our model notably finds an edge on each team's RB1 behind the backup QBs.

RBs Cam Skattebo, Jacory-Croskey Merritt and D'Andre Swift all appeared with an early edge for 2+ touchdowns.

The Commanders and Croskey-Merritt face the biggest uphill climb as 7.5-point dogs, resulting in the largest edge, but the Giants remain favored and Skattebo currently gets an edge for an Anytime TD and for 2+ touchdowns.

It's reasonable to expect a bigger emphasis on the run game as all three backups, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Tyson Bagent (possibly even Case Keenum for the Bears), all project as bottom-five QBs this week.

2. Kyler Murray starts for Vikings after Wentz starts 2-0

The Kyler Murray redemption arc began about as poorly as one could hope.

He threw an interception on his very first pass as a Viking, and his third drive ended with a concussion. He sat out Week 2 and watched backup Carson Wentz throw for 3 TDs, no interceptions and guide Minnesota to a 2-0 record and first place in the NFC North.

Murray now is fighting against that pressure, as the team has shown it can win without him. He'll need to be very good and avoid critical mistakes or Wentz will be on his heels.

He projects for 209.9 passing yards against the 0-2 Buccaneers, who have been a mess on both sides of the ball. Top WR Justin Jefferson projects for 73 receiving yards and a 37.7% TD probability.

Our NFC North prediction put the Vikings as the favorite.

Perhaps most notably, the Vikings get a 51.4% chance to cover the -1.5 spread and 58.0% to win. That would make them 3-0 and at +200 to win the NFC North, currently a value play to win the division, with fair odds at +180 and Dimers' favorite to do so.

3. Michel Penix Jr. makes season debut for the Falcons on TNF

The season began off the rails for the Falcons as offseason acquisition QB Tua Tagovailoa was injured in preseason, thrusting career backup Cooper Rush under center.

Through two weeks, Atlanta has been outscored 54-16, with only superstar RB Bijan Robinson finding the end zone.

Now, Michael Penix Jr. will start at QB, his first action since tearing his left ACL back in November. Penix was not cleared to paly for Week 1 but with things looking bleak in Atlanta, he's jumping in for Week 3.

Is he ready? We'll have to see, but Dimers' first projections with him in the lineup point to season-high receiving yards for WR Drake London, as well as his highest Anytime TD probability of the season, behind a  210.8-yard projection for Penix himself.

The Packers have given up 4 passing TDs with no interceptions so far, but how this Falcons team responds on a short week with a different gameplan will be what this game hinges on

Top picks against the spread in Week 3

These are the teams with the highest probability to cover the spread in their respective game this week.

They may not hold value, which is why you'll want to cross-reference with our NFL best bets - any spread picks with a betting edge will be identified there.

However, if you're looking to build NFL parlays with spreads, or make your choices in an NFL Pick 'ems league, these five teams are a good place to start.

At the early lines, our model isn't discounting the teams starting backups quite as much as the books, but keep an eye on these throughout the week for any line movement and updated predictions.

• Giants -2.5 vs. Titans (59%)
• Commanders +7.5 vs. Seahawks (59%)
• Rams -2.5 @ Broncos (55%)
• Jaguars -2.5 vs. Patriots (55%)
• Colts +2.5 vs. Texans (54%)

Top 5 season to date: 3-7

The Top 5 hasn't been on the money through two weeks, but as a whole, Dimers' spread picks are hitting at nearly 70%!

That's a very strong result and suggests that there's been some unlucky variance clustered at the top early in the season.

For the best value regardless of probability, see every NFL spread bet with a Dimers edge here.

Who will win in NFL Week 3?

Here you'll find the five most likely outright winners this week. No spreads, no covering, and little betting value, just the five highest probabilities identified in our NFL predictions.

These are good teams to look at for weekly Survivor picks throughout the season, provided you haven't used one of them previously.

• Chiefs 82% vs. Dolphins
• 49ers 79% vs. Cardinals
• Bills 76% vs. Chargers
• Lions 72% vs. Jets
• Seahawks 70% vs. Commanders

Editor's Survivor pick: Well, the Bucs blew a 10-point lead and cooked this writer's Survivor run in Week 2, likely unaided by the lengthy weather delay, but they simply weren't at their best in a very winnable matchup.

If you're still in your own league and looking for a strong probability pick, it just might make sense to fade the Dolphins and back their opponent all year until you run out of options, as they have yet to lead in a game and are the lowest win probability in back-to-back weeks.

Season to date: WK1 Jaguars ✅ WK2 Buccaneers ❌

Dimers' Sweet Spots to look for in Week 3

The "Sweet Spot" is a Dimers Pro feature that identifies the specific betting markets and edge ranges where our model is returning a positive profit over the course of the season.

These signals are the first to look for when researching a weekly NFL slate, as it shows where our model has proven to be most accurate .

Due to the launch of our brand-new NFL model, only props have Sweet Spots that have carried over from last season. Once we have enough bets in the bank, you'll find game lines here as well.

After last week, Rushing Yards has become our most profitable market from a pure ROI perspective, up an additional 5% from last week.

Get our Week 3 Sweet Spot props in the Dimers App.

Players to watch in Week 3

These are players who need to be on your radar, whether in fantasy leagues or for player prop betting.

Last week, we called out Ja'Marr Chase as a top bounceback candidate, and he delivered  with a pair of touchdowns and an early candidate for "catch of the year."

1. Christian Watson (Packers)

A player we tagged as one who could take the next step this season, Christian Watson has 3 touchdowns and 188 yards on 19 targets through two weeks, easily leading the Packers in each category.

He's not just the only WR to score in this offense so far, but has all but one of the Packers' offensive touchdowns, with their slogging run game ineffective so far.

He'll face the Falcons on TNF, who allowed 221 yards on 40 attempts to an over-the-hill Aaron Rodgers, and a flawless 287-yard, 3-TD performance to Bryce Young on Sunday. 

Christian Watson gets an edge to score in his third-straight game.

Atlanta's run defense has been solid and the Packers are unlikely to find a spark in a quick turnaround before Thursday night, with all signs pointing to another good outing for Watson, the team's offensive funnel.

Watson projects for 71.1 yards, 4.3 receptions and a 43.4% chance to score, making him an edge at anything better than +130.

2. CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)

After a fairly quiet Week 1 with 5 catches for 44 yards and a TD, CeeDee Lamb reminded everyone why he belongs in the best WR conversation, hauling in 8 of 9 targets for 153 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

When the Cowboys and Ravens face off in Brazil in Week 3, Lamb projects as Week 3's top wide receiver at 89.5 yards on 6.5 receptions, and a 38.4% touchdown probability.

Baltimore struggled to contain the Saints' passing game in Week 2, and Dak Prescott's week-leading 278.4-yard passing projection suggests more of the same on the way.

3. Derrick Henry (Ravens)

Let's stay international for this one.

When Derrick Henry and the Ravens face the Cowboys in Brazil, they'll face a defense that's allowed 347 rushing yards through two games, the third-most in the NFL.

He opened the season with a three-TD game and is up to four on the year.  When Henry faced the Cowboys in 2024, not long after they didn't sign him despite him publicly wanting to go there, he put up 151 and a pair of touchdowns.

Henry projects for 91.8 rushing yards (1st) and 62.5% for an anytime TD and 25.7% for multiple touchdowns, both the third-highest of the Week.

Our rushing projections for Jackson and Henry vs. the Cowboys.

Don't be surprised if Lamar Jackson gets going, too. Dallas has allowed 54 and 69 yards to QBs Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart so far, with Jackson projecting for 44.1 yards and a 29.9% TD probability, both season highs.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.