Dimers' NFL spread picks hit at almost 70% through first two weeks

Two weeks into the NFL betting season, Dimers been one of the most reliable spread indicators in the business, fresh off a rebuild with the launch of our brand-new NFL betting model this season.

After going 11-5 against the number in both Week 1 and Week 2, Dimers sits at a combined 22-10, a 68.8% hit rate through the first two weeks of the year.

That's nearly a $1,000 in profit for a $100 bettor who backs every pick from the Dimers model's NFL predictions.

If you've been using Dimers Pro and the Dimers App to follow these picks, you already know how we get there and if not, here's why you need to be.

Profit through two weeks of NFL betting

Based on a flat stake and flat odds, the Dimers model's NFL spread picks would have returned over $900 for a $100 bettor through two weeks, pushing close to a 30% ROI.

For display purposes, let's assume a flat -115 price on every game. Actual odds will run a little higher or lower depending on the sportsbook and regional availability; a $100 bettor who backed the Dimers pick in all 32 games so far would be sitting on $913.12 in profit.

Our high value play on the Bengals from Week 2.

Some odds will be shorter, some possibly longer, like our +100 pick on Bengals vs. Texans this weekend, which would have returned a profit equal to the stake.

Week 3: Eight games with a real edge

Heading into Week 3, Dimers has identified an edge in 8 of the week's games, meaning half the slate features a value bet on one side of the spread that our model considers meaningfully more than a coin flip.

Every one of those edge picks comes in at 51.3% or higher, topped by a 60.6% probability on one NFC East team to cover.

That's the kind of gap between model and market that Dimers Pro subscribers get access to before kickoff via our NFL Best Bets hub.

The fewest 50/50 games of the season so far

On the other end of the spectrum, only 3 games this week come back as a true 50/50 split in the Dimers model, the lowest total through three weeks.

Fewer coin-flip games generally means more conviction across the board, and it correlates with the model finding value in half the week's matchups.

Favorites hold a 10-6 edge to cover

Zooming out across the full Week 3 slate, Dimers currently predicts the favorite to cover in 10 of 16 games, a 10-6 advantage over the underdogs, after two weeks where we were closer to a 50/50 split or backing upsets like in Week 2.

Our model's perfect picks in the Raiders-Chargers game in Week 2.

For the full slate of picks, Dimers' NFL Predictions hub has every Week 3 matchup broken down game by game, updated as lines move throughout the week.

How Dimers arrives at a spread pick

Every pick follows the same process, coming straight from our game-by-game NFL predictions.

We run each game's prediction, and wherever our model favors a side above 50% against the spread, or identifies value on a team relative to the closing number, that's the official Dimers pick.

When the model returns an even 50/50 split, we turn to our projected final score as the tiebreaker, since that number will always fall on one side of the line even when the win probability doesn't.

It's a simple, repeatable process, and it's what's produced the 22-10 mark through two weeks.

Bet on NFL Week 3 with Dimers Pro

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.