How 3 key QB injuries will impact the NFL Week 3 betting landscape

NFL Sunday can be a cruel reminder that injuries are an inevitability in the sport, and Week 2 was no exception, causing a hit to NFL betting and busting an NFL parlay or two.

Three starting quarterbacks, Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels, all left games with injuries that have ruled them out or put their chances of playing in serious doubt this weekend, and the ripple effects show up everywhere from the spread to individual touchdown props.

They join the already injured Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa, putting as many as six preseason starting QBs on the shelf by Week 3.

However, the show must go on, and these games will be played with or without these QBs. Here's how each injury impacts this weekend's slate, and where the Dimers model finds a betting edge.

Caleb Williams (Bears)

Bears QB Caleb Williams went down with a hamstring strain in the fourth quarter of Chicago's ugly Week 2 loss to the Vikings at Soldier Field, looking to avoid a more serious Achilles injury as initial reactions feared.

Head coach Ben Johnson has called him "week to week" and said the second-year QB will "likely miss some time," though reports suggest he avoided a more severe tear. Chicago would be expected to plan around backup Tyson Bagent as the Week 3 starter for Monday night's home game against the Eagles, with veteran Case Keenum next in line if needed.

However, Bagent was just announced to be in concussion protocol. He'll have an extra day to clear with the game on Monday night, but as of now, the 38-year old Keenum could very well be in line to start.

Bagent went 5-for-9 for 54 yards in relief on Sunday, and the Dimers' numbers in our Bears vs. Eagles predictions project a run-heavy game plan behind him (or Keenum). RB D'Andre Swift projects as the workhorse at 49.2% to score a touchdown on the ground and 67 rushing yards, with fellow RB Kyle Monangai (18.4%, 39 yards) alongside him.

Our receiving projections for the Bears offense in Week 3.

In the passing game, the touchdown equity spreads out among WR Rome Odunze (21.2%), TE Colston Loveland (28.9%) and WR Luther Burden (16.1%), but neither cracks 30% or clears 45 projected years, highlighting low confidence in the passing game under Bagent, and likely Keenum as well.

It's particularly disappointing for Loveland, who now has 1 catch for 3 yards through two weeks, well off pace of last season's rookie breakout campaign.

The Dimers model has Philadelphia at 60.8% to win Monday night, with a projected final of Eagles 23, Bears 20, a tighter number than you'd expect for backup under center, with the road game and a quick turnaround factoring in for the Eagles.

Dimers' best early value in this game lies with a 55.3% probability on our preferred side of the total.

Jaxson Dart (Giants)

After a great Week 1 in an upset vs. the Cowboys, Jaxson Dart's Monday Night Football outing ended early after he landed awkwardly on his left leg attempting a deep ball, limping to the medical tent before being ruled out.

The belief around the injury is a sprained MCL, and while the Giants haven't closed the door entirely, backup Jameis Winston is the expected Week 3 starter against Tennessee at MetLife Stadium.

In our Giants vs. Titans predictions, the Dimers model sees another offense that will lean heavily on the ground game with Winston at the controls.

RB Cam Skattebo is the clear focal point at 55.8% to find the end zone, the only player over 50%, or even 40% to score, and 64 projected rushing yards, well clear of Devin Singletary in the RB2 role (24.6%, 23 yards).

Through the air, WR Malik Nabers, who is dealing with a shoulder injury of his own sustained in MNF, remains the engine of the passing attack at 36.3% touchdown probability and a team-high 62.6 projected receiving yards, with TE Isaiah Likely (29.5%, 33.0 rec yards) also in the mix as a red-zone option.

Even with the change at quarterback, Dimers still likes New York in this spot outright.

Our model has the Giants at a 64.3% probability to beat Tennessee, as well as a 60.6% chance to cover the -2.5 spread, with a projected final of Giants 22, Titans 18.

A veteran game-manager in Winston, paired with a Skattebo/Nabers-driven offense, keeps the Giants favored in our early predictions, despite the downgrade at the position.

Jayden Daniels (Commanders)

Expected to be the most serious of the three, Jayden Daniels was inadvertently stepped on by a teammate late in the first half against Dallas and tried to brace his fall with his left arm, and he was carted off in an air cast.

He underwent imaging and will consult with specialists over the next several days, with no timetable for return. It's the third injury to his left elbow, twice last year, since Week 9 of last season. Veteran backup Marcus Mariota is set to start in his place for Week 3 against Seattle, also the toughest draw for any of these three backups.

Dimers' Commanders vs. Seahawks predictions have Mariota projected for 196 passing yards, with RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (47.1% anytime touchdown, 48 rushing yards) leading a bleak-looking running game, with Mariota himself the second-highest projected rusher at 32 yards.

Our top TD scorers for the Commanders in Week 3.

In the passing game, WR Terry McLaurin (22.9%) and WR Stefon Diggs (25.4%) remain the top two touchdown options, but with no better than a 1-in-4 chance of finding the end zone. Both were over 29% last week with Daniels in and a weaker defensive opponent.

Unsurprisingly, this is the instance where the injury has made the biggest impact on the moneyline probabilities for both teams.

The Dimers model has Seattle as a healthy 68.5% favorite on the road, projecting a 22-17 final score that does see the Commanders cover the 7.5-point spread with a 61.4% probability.

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