Marvin Harrison Jr. Texans debut: TD odds and projections vs. Jaguars in London

Marvin Harrison Jr. will debut for his new team in Texans vs. Jaguars at Wembley Stadium, less than a week after Arizona traded him, and bettors are backing him in a big way early on.

Per BetMGM, Harrison (+425) is the most-bet player by total wagers to cash a touchdown prop in Week 6.

Houston Texans WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (+425) is the most-bet player (by total wagers) to score a touchdown in Week 6 at @BetMGM sportsbooks

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 16, 2026

Dimers’ NFL predictions model is more cautious and finds a major discrepancy between the public expectations, though a savvy bettor can still turn his conservative outlook into a profitable day with the right approach.

Why the public is betting on Marvin Harrison Jr. to score

The Cardinals sent Harrison and a 2027 sixth-round pick to Houston for 2027 second- and sixth-round picks.

The No. 4 pick in the 2024 draft arrived in Arizona with as much hype as any receiver in recent memory and never quite delivered. Over his first two seasons, marked by inconsistency and injuries, he caught 103 passes for 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns. Through four games this year, he had five catches on 13 targets with one touchdown.

Houston is betting that the problem was his situation, not his ability. 

n Houston, he reunites with C.J. Stroud, his former Ohio State teammate, which could immediately pay dividends if the chemistry is still there, although Harrison will be behind already dominant WR1 Nico Collins, and several other passcatchers to start his Texans tenure.

Temper expectations for Harrison in first game with Texans

Jacksonville (4-1) allows 266.2 passing yards per game, the third-most in the league, but has given up just four passing touchdowns, and is tied for second with six interceptions.

That limits the touchdown upside for everyone in Houston’s passing game, not only the new arrival.

Dimers’ NFL player projections still run through Collins, at 5.2 catches for 75.7 yards and a 40.5% anytime TD probability.

Meanwhile, Harrison is projected for the fourth-most yards in the offense at 27.0 on 1.8 catches.

As far as scoring a touchdown behind Collins, Dalton Schultz (17.5%), Jaylin Noel (14.0%), then Harrison (13.7%), and Kayshon Boutte (11.7%) are bunched together with lower touchdown probabilities.

That spread suggests Harrison’s opening-week share of targets is still unsettled for the 1-4 Texans, and while he likely will have designed plays drawn up, it's a quick turnaround to be a big part of the offense.

As the most-bet player on BetMGM for a touchdown at +425 odds, the public is getting below our fair value of +630 based on his 13.9% TD probability.

However, if you've got a profit boost at a sportsbook, you might be able to get him into the fair value range.

Dimers’ Texans vs. Jaguars prediction

Dimers gives Jacksonville a 61.4% chance to win and projects a 24-20 Jaguars victory, and the projected 44 combined points sit just above the total.

Dimers Pro unlocks unlimited player projections for every Texans and Jaguars pass catcher, as well as expansive TD probabilities and game predictions for every NFL game.