DraftKings Predictions "Trade of the Day" for Week 6: Chicago vs. Atlanta

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This is not trading advice. All information, including this specific material, in affiliation with DraftKings Predictions, is the opinion of Dimers. Dimer's views are their own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Market availability varies.

We’re more than a quarter of the way through the regular season.

Week 6 is here, and with five games in the books, the contenders are starting to separate from the pack. That also means the markets on prediction market sites have had over a month to adjust to this year's teams, and that's where, in our opinion, the misprices start to stand out.

Using the best football predictions data from Dimers to back up trades and predictions e, we'll be delivering you a weekly Trade of the Day, identifying a market on DraftKings Predictions where the Dimers model says the public has mispriced an outcome, just as we have in Chicago vs. Atlanta in Week 6.

This could be a futures market like a division winner, or a weekly event like a touchdown and more.

To maximize today's trading value on DraftKings, new DraftKings Predictions customers can earn up to $200 (Paid over 21 days)* in bonuses after trading their first $5 on DraftKings Predictions.

Why trade on Chicago vs. Atlanta in Week 6

Chicago heads to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff on Sunday, and both teams are expecting their young quarterbacks back from injury.

Chicago is 3-2 after a 31-7 loss at Green Bay in which it turned the ball over five times. Caleb Williams has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury, but he was listed as a full participant on Wednesday, and all signs point to him returning. Even without him, Chicago leads the league in team rushing yards, and its defense has allowed just 19.2 points per game, tied for sixth-fewest.

On the other side, Atlanta is 2-3 after blowing a fourth-quarter lead in a 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore. Michael Penix Jr. injured his ribs late in that game, but he is expected to start, and the difference he makes is stark: Atlanta scored just 8 points per game in its first two games without him and has averaged 34.3 with him under center. Bijan Robinson also leads the league with 580 rushing yards.

Both offenses should find room through the air, though. Atlanta allows 248.4 passing yards per game, among the most in the league, and cornerback A.J. Terrell is on injured reserve. Atlanta has also allowed 24.4 points per game, while Chicago's defense has been one of the stingiest in football.

The Dimers model gives Chicago a 59.0% win probability, and we project a 26-24 Chicago win, leading us to our best trade in the game.

Week 6 Market Spotlight: Chicago vs. Atlanta

• The trade. Chicago to win by over 1.5 points YES
• Dimers probability: 53.9%
• DraftKings Predictions market: 51%
• Difference vs. DraftKings Predictions: 2.9%

At the time of publication, the YES contract was priced at 51%, reflecting market participants' expectations of that outcome. Market prices are subject to change.

From a pure numbers standpoint, the data says this game is close, but Chicago still draws an edge against the line of 1.5 points.

In our Chicago vs. Atlanta prediction, Dimers gives this market a 53.9% probability, while DraftKings Predictions has it priced at just 51%. That gap of nearly 3 percentage points is the difference between the model and the current market sentiment, what we call our "edge."

This range in this specific market carries our Dimers' "Sweet Spot" signal, meaning it's an area where our model has been most accurate to date.

That makes it our highest-probability trade with a market difference in Week 6, in a game our model projects Chicago to do just enough to cash this play.

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