Lions vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Detroit is favored to win in NFL Week 9 [2026]

Since our Lions-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Lions and Dolphins, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lions a 72.0% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 27-21.

Key factors favoring the Lions:

• Dolphins offense
• Lions offense
• Lions team rating

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Lions and Dolphins each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has a 53.1% chance of staying under.

Here's what's driving the under's higher probability::

• Dolphins recent performance
• Playing conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Lions -6.5 (+100) / Dolphins +6.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Lions -277, Dolphins +270
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (+106/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Lions -6.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 27¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 50.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 50.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Lions vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Lions vs. Dolphins?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 9, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Lions vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Gibbs a 70.3% chance of scoring a TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 19.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 70.3% probability
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 48.3%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 32.5%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 32.5%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 14.6%

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 48.9% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 26.4%
• Malik Washington (WR): 24.6%
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 22.0%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 18.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 19.9% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 10.8%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 6.4%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 6.4%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 2.6%

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 11.6% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 5.3%
• Malik Washington (WR): 4.9%
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 4.3%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 3.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected for 260 passing yards. The Dolphins' Malik Willis is expected to throw for 211 yards.

Lions rushing

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 102 yds
• Sione Vaki: 22 yds
• Jared Goff: 4 yds

Dolphins rushing

• Ollie Gordon: 66 yds
• Malik Willis: 32 yds
• Jaylen Wright: 13 yds

Lions receiving

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 81 yds
• Jameson Williams: 57 yds
• Sam LaPorta: 51 yds
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 36 yds
• Isaac TeSlaa: 22 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Malik Washington: 48 yds
• Caleb Douglas: 46 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 43 yds
• Chris Bell: 31 yds
• Kevin Coleman: 15 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 9 matchup between the Dolphins and Lions at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 72.0% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 9 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.