DraftKings Predictions "Trade of the Day" for Week 9

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This is not trading advice. All information, including this specific material, in affiliation with DraftKings Predictions, is the opinion of Dimers. Dimer’s views are their own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Market availability varies.

This week marks the halfway point of the season, and futures races across the league are heating up.

Week 9 is here, and with at least seven games in the books for each team, the contenders are starting to separate from the pack. That also means the markets on prediction market sites have had two months to adjust to this year’s teams, and that’s where, in our opinion, the misprices start to stand out.

Using the best football predictions data from Dimers to analyze event markets, we’ll be delivering you a weekly Trade of the Day, identifying a market on DraftKings Predictions where the Dimers model says the public has mispriced an outcome, just as we have in Tampa Bay’s division race entering Week 9.

This could be a futures market like this week’s division winner, or a weekly event like a touchdown and more.

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Week 9 Market Overview: Tampa Bay Division Winner

Tampa Bay enters Week 9 at 3-5, half a game behind Carolina (3-4) for first place, and level with Atlanta (3-5). New Orleans (2-5) sits a half-game back. Just like last season, nobody in this division has a winning record, but the Dimers model has Tampa Bay as the clear favorite, while the market currently prices it well below that.

Tampa Bay started 0-4, but it has won two straight and three of its last four. Both of the last two wins came against division opponents, beating Carolina 43-13 on the road in Week 7, then shutting out Atlanta 16-0 at home on Sunday. That makes Tampa Bay the only team in the division without a loss to a division rival.

Sunday’s win was unusual. Tampa Bay didn’t complete a single pass, but it ran for a franchise-record 324 yards, with two backs going for career highs. The defense did the rest, forcing four interceptions, holding Atlanta to 0-for-12 on third down, and Tampa Bay's secondary now leads the league in interceptions.

The Week 9 schedule may help Tampa Bay’s case even though the Dimers model projects Tampa Bay to lose on Sunday night in Chicago. The model projects that Atlanta has a 64.4% chance to lose against Cincinnati in Madrid, and Carolina has a 57.1% chance to lose at home to Denver. New Orleans is projected to beat Cleveland at home, but the Dimers model gives Cleveland a better than 50% chance of finishing within 2.5 points or winning outright. So even a New Orleans win is likely to be close.

If the week plays out the way the model expects, Tampa Bay drops a non-division game and loses little ground, if any. It also gets both its home division games still to come, hosting Carolina on November 30 and New Orleans on December 20.

Week 9 Market Spotlight: Tampa Bay to win the division

• Dimers prediction: 45%
• DraftKings Predictions market: 32%
• Difference vs. DraftKings Predictions: 13%

At the time of publication, the YES contract was priced at 32%, reflecting market participants’ expectations of that outcome. Market prices are subject to change.

The model has the teams chasing Tampa Bay at Carolina 26.1%, Atlanta 15.2% and New Orleans 13.7%.

That gap of 13 percentage points is the difference between the model and the current market sentiment, and the largest between any of these teams here. It also comes in a division where no team has separated itself, and the model expects that to continue through Week 9.

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