Cowboys vs. Colts prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win in NFL Week 9 [2026]

Since our Cowboys-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Cowboys and Colts, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Cowboys a 65.6% chance of defeating the Colts in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 27-23.

Key factors favoring the Cowboys:

• Colts QB situation
• Cowboys offense
• Cowboys QB matchup

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Cowboys and Colts each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 52.5-point over/under has a 52.3% chance of staying under.

Here's what's driving the under's higher probability::

• Colts recent performance
• QB ratings

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (+100) / Colts +4.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Cowboys -208, Colts +203
• Total: Over/Under 52.5 (+113/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Colts +4.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Colts @ 33¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 52.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Colts to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Cowboys vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Colts?

According to our model, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Cowboys vs. Colts.

Our projections give Williams a 65.4% chance of getting in for six at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the running back is a 16.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 65.4% probability
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 45.5%
• George Pickens (WR): 31.2%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 25.5%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 25.0%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 57.3% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 32.2%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 25.6%
• Seth McGowan (RB): 24.6%
• Josh Downs (WR): 23.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 16.5% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 9.4%
• George Pickens (WR): 5.8%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 4.6%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 4.5%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 13.8% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 6.3%
• Keenan Allen (WR): 4.8%
• Seth McGowan (RB): 4.6%
• Josh Downs (WR): 4.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 269 passing yards. The Colts' Daniel Jones is expected to throw for 214 yards.

Cowboys rushing

• Javonte Williams: 73 yds
• Tyler Goodson: 22 yds
• Dak Prescott: 10 yds

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 67 yds
• Seth McGowan: 30 yds
• Daniel Jones: 13 yds

Cowboys receiving

• CeeDee Lamb: 89 yds
• George Pickens: 60 yds
• Ryan Flournoy: 49 yds
• Jake Ferguson: 31 yds
• Javonte Williams: 13 yds

Colts receiving

• Josh Downs: 49 yds
• Keenan Allen: 49 yds
• Tyler Warren: 47 yds
• Laquon Treadwell: 21 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 9 matchup between the Colts and Cowboys at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Cowboys, with a 65.6% win probability, will likely beat the Colts in Week 9 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.