Super Bowl 58 Novelty Props - Betting on Touchdown Scorers and Jersey Numbers

As kickoff to Super Bowl 58 looms closer, we see more and more prop markets become available, from performance-based marks to head-to-head matchups and the unique novelty markets that we’ve previously covered in our beginner’s guide.

One of the more niche markets that’s opened up in the past week is based around the jersey numbers of the touchdown scorers in the game. Currently, DraftKings has three different props available in this market: the over/under on the jersey number of both the first and last TD scorer, as well as the sum of the jersey numbers for all touchdowns scored in the game.

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In this article, we’ll use our in-house TD projections based on our model’s advanced simulations combined with what we know about the rosters for each team to see if we can identify an edge against the books for the First TD scorer and the combined jersey numbers of all touchdowns (we have no data to use for the final touchdown scorer).

As mentioned, these props are offered on DraftKings. If you’re not signed up there, you can get yourself a $200 introductory bonus after signing up and betting your first $5, a deal not to be missed before kickoff to the Big Game on February 11.

What Will be the Jersey Number of the First Touchdown Scorer?

The Line: 22.5

Over: -120

Under: +100

Let’s start with the Over/Under on the jersey number of the First TD scorer. DraftKings has set this line at 22.5, with the juice to the over. There are two key factors at play here, regardless of which team gets the ball first. Factor number one, which players are the most likely to score the first touchdown? Two, what are the jersey numbers of the players most likely to be on the field?

Below are our model’s probabilities for the first TD scorer along with their jersey number:

Update as of Feb. 8: Our model's first TD probabilities are holding strong and have not fluctuate by more than a fraction of 1% for the key players. As always, monitor our Super Bowl 58 preview for the latest data up until kickoff.

A couple quick notes: out of our most likely First TD scorers, just three of the top ten have a jersey number over 22.5, although they’re all pushing the higher end – Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Our most likely TD scorer by a wide margin is Christian McCaffrey who rocks #23. It’s no coincidence the line is specifically set at his jersey number.

There’s a 19.2% probability that the first TD will be scored by anyone besides the ten players above. That can include anyone from the QB to defense and special teams or a depth chart guy like Chiefs TE2 Noah Gray (#83) or 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk (#44). 

These players can swing the likelihood of the jersey number going over or under dramatically depending on where their jersey numbers fall. Here’s how the jersey numbers and probabilities break down for guys in that category:

That adds up to a combined 12.4% probability that one of these players scores the first touchdown, leaving us with 6.8% left to the truly random.

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Out of our Top 10, we’re looking at a combined 37.9% probability of the first TD scorer wearing a jersey number greater than 22.5, plus the 7.7% of the low probability guys, along with the small share of the leftovers, for an approximate total of 45.6% to the over.

For the under, there’s a 42.2% probability that the first TD will be scored by one of our top 10 most likely candidates, plus the 5.1% of the lower probability crowd for a total of 47.3%.

At -120 the over, the odds imply a 54.6% probability of the first TD scorer sporting a jersey number over 22.5, much higher than what our model projects at the combined 45.6%. The under implies a pure 50/50 chance at +100, much closer to what our model suggests at 47.3%.

Our takeaway? The Under is the bet to make, with only two really big players threatening the over in Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce. Then, you can sprinkle a bit on both those guys to score the first touchdown individually, with McCaffrey sitting at +350 and Kelce sitting at +650 and as high as +800 on FanDuel.

What Will be The Sum of the TD Scorers’ Jersey Numbers?

The Line: 121.5

Over: -140

Under: +120

Update as of Feb. 8: A little movement here with the over now -150 and the under at +125. Analysis still applies

For this one, we’ll be looking at our model’s probabilities for a player to score an anytime touchdown and some paths to hitting this over, which DraftKings has set at 121.5.

Simply put, if someone with a high jersey number (Kelce #87, Gray #83, Watson #84, Kittle #85) fails to score, this will be incredibly difficult to hit the over. With so many key players sporting numbers in the low teens, it will take one of the highest scoring Super Bowls ever to clear the mark if we don’t get a chunk of it out of the way with one of those big ones.

Here are the quickest and most-plausible paths to clearing the 121.5 line:

• Travis Kelce (#87) AND George Kittle (#85) each score a TD = 172
• Travis Kelce (#87) OR George Kittle (#85) each score 2 TDs = 174 or 170
• Travis Kelce (#87) or George Kittle (#85) AND Christian McCaffrey (#23) AND Deebo Samuel (#19) each score a TD = 127

Barring a low probability TD scorer like Juszczyk, Watson, and Gray, or a high-numbered defensive player, these are the most direct paths to clearing the number in as few touchdowns as possible.

So, does it make sense to bet this market? In short, not really. Theoretically, with the under at +120, you’re kind of getting better odds on the Under in the game, set at 47.5, but it’s too volatile of a result for the two markets to correlate with one another. 

You could hypothetically see eight touchdowns in this game and not clear a jersey total of 100. You’d be better off just sprinkling a couple bucks on TD parlays featuring the above players if you find them appealing. Just look at the odds of those same results as TD props:

• Kelce + Kittle: +310
• Kittle x2: +950
• Kelce x2: +475
• Kelce, CMC, Deebo: +440

Hopefully these insights help guide your decisions when betting on Super Bowl 58 on February 11 in Las Vegas! For more data-driven insights and Super Bowl betting resources, check out our variety of content below, and check back throughout the week for more on Dimers.com!

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