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Spurs vs. Heat prediction: San Antonio to win, Victor Wembanyama projected for big game in Monday's NBA matchup [3/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat predictions for NBA Monday.
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs will meet in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Monday, with tipoff at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Heat game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature players like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Norman Powell, while the Spurs will be led by Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Spurs a 63% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 122-119.
According to our model, the Spurs (-3.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 243.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Spurs vs. Heat odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Spurs | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -165 | +148 |
| Total | o243.5 (-106) | u243.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Heat picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Heat +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Spurs | -165 |
| Total | Under 243.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Under 243.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Spurs vs. Heat player props
NBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the San Antonio vs. Miami matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.
Victor Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 28 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists, while Bam Adebayo is projected to have 22 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists for the Heat.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Spurs prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 28 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 58 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 19 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 37 |
| Stephon Castle | 17 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 39 |
| Devin Vassell | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Keldon Johnson | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
Heat prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 22 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 47 |
| Tyler Herro | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 38 |
| Norman Powell | 20 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 14 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 30 |
Spurs vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details
Monday's matchup between the Heat and Spurs at Kaseya Center is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
- Date: Monday, March 23, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Monday, with Victor Wembanyama projected for a game-high 58 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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