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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 23, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.4% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 16.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.5% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 15.3% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 14.0% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 13.9% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.7% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 13.6% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 13.5% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 13.1% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 5.4% | +1200 | 13.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 5.3% | +900 | 15.3% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 4.3% | +650 | 17.7% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 4.0% | +950 | 13.5% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 3.1% | +1000 | 12.2% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.9% | +650 | 16.3% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 2.6% | +800 | 13.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 2.2% | +900 | 12.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 1.7% | +850 | 12.3% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 1.4% | +700 | 13.9% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.0% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 23, 2026, Jalen Duren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Kyle Kuzma shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media brands.
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