Spurs vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Heat NBA game on March 23, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Spurs
136
111
Kaseya Center
Heat
Kaseya Center
TEAM1234T
Spurs
25 0 78 33 136
Heat
23 0 55 33 111
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Spurs
    >99%
  • Heat
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Spurs
25 0 78 33 136
Heat
23 0 55 33 111
Q4 00:01 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:16 Keshad Johnson makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:05 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:38 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:00 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:10 Carter Bryant misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:26 Kel'el Ware makes two point pullup jump shot
Q4 2:39 Keshad Johnson misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:39 Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    Heat offensive rebound
  2. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  3. Q4 00:01
    Myron Gardner misses heave shot
  4. Q4 00:01
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    136-111
  5. Q4 00:16
    +2
    Keshad Johnson makes two point jump shot
    134-111
  6. Q4 00:20
    Carter Bryant turnover (Simone Fontecchio steals)
  7. Q4 00:41
    +1
    Keshad Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    134-108
  8. Q4 00:41
    +1
    Keshad Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    134-109
  9. Q4 00:41
    Carter Bryant shooting foul (Keshad Johnson draws the foul)
  10. Q4 00:45
    Carter Bryant turnover (lost ball) (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
  11. Q4 1:05
    Carter Bryant shooting foul (Myron Gardner draws the foul)
  12. Q4 1:05
    +1
    Myron Gardner makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    134-107
  13. Q4 1:05
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    136-111
  14. Q4 1:15
    Spurs turnover
  15. Q4 1:22
    Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
  16. Q4 1:25
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  17. Q4 1:38
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    136-111
  18. Q4 1:54
    Heat turnover
  19. Q4 1:55
    Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
  20. Q4 2:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  21. Q4 2:06
    Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
  22. Q4 2:10
    Carter Bryant misses three point jump shot
  23. Q4 2:26
    +2
    Kel'el Ware makes two point pullup jump shot
    134-109
  24. Q4 2:30
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  25. Q4 2:30
    Carter Bryant turnover (bad pass) (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
  26. Q4 2:39
    Keshad Johnson misses two point jump shot
  27. Q4 2:39
    Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
  28. Q4 2:39
    Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
  29. Q4 2:39
    Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
  30. Q4 2:39
    Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
  31. Q4 2:52
    Keldon Johnson personal foul (Myron Gardner draws the foul)
  32. Q4 2:52
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Keshad Johnson, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  33. Q4 2:52
    Spurs lineup change (Bismack Biyombo, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan McLaughlin, Lindy Waters III, Carter Bryant)
  34. Q4 2:52
    Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Keshad Johnson, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  35. Q4 3:02
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    134-109
  36. Q4 3:17
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    136-111
  37. Q4 3:35
    +3
    Keldon Johnson makes three point jump shot
    134-109
  38. Q4 3:41
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  39. Q4 3:44
    Norman Powell misses three point pullup jump shot
  40. Q4 3:50
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  41. Q4 3:54
    Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
  42. Q4 4:17
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    134-109
  43. Q4 4:24
    +3
    Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot
    126-97
  44. Q4 4:30
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  45. Q4 4:30
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  46. Q4 4:30
    Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
  47. Q4 4:33
    Kel'el Ware misses two point dunk
  48. Q4 4:34
    Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
  49. Q4 4:39
    Dylan Harper blocks Kasparas Jakucionis's two point jump shot
  50. Q4 4:52
    Kel'el Ware defensive goaltending violation
  51. Q4 4:52
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    136-111
  52. Q4 4:59
    Dylan Harper offensive rebound
  53. Q4 5:03
    Myron Gardner blocks Dylan Harper's two point jump shot
  54. Q4 5:09
    Norman Powell turnover (Harrison Barnes steals)
  55. Q4 5:10
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  56. Q4 5:14
    Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
  57. Q4 5:21
    Heat turnover
  58. Q4 5:39
    Heat 60 second timeout
  59. Q4 5:39
    Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  60. Q4 5:41
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    134-109
  61. Q4 5:45
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  62. Q4 5:47
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  63. Q4 5:58
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    134-109
  64. Q4 6:07
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  65. Q4 6:10
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  66. Q4 6:16
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  67. Q4 6:19
    Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
  68. Q4 6:34
    +2
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point running finger roll layup (Norman Powell assists)
    134-109
  69. Q4 6:39
    Spurs turnover
  70. Q4 6:45
    Kel'el Ware blocks Keldon Johnson's two point layup
  71. Q4 6:46
    Spurs offensive rebound
  72. Q4 6:46
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  73. Q4 7:05
    +3
    Myron Gardner makes three point stepback jump shot
    134-109
  74. Q4 7:14
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
  75. Q4 7:17
    Harrison Barnes misses two point fadeaway jump shot
  76. Q4 7:30
    Carter Bryant shooting foul (Norman Powell draws the foul)
  77. Q4 7:30
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    134-109
  78. Q4 7:30
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    134-109
  79. Q4 7:36
    Spurs personal foul
  80. Q4 7:36
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
  81. Q4 7:47
    +2
    Dylan Harper makes two point jump shot
    134-107
  82. Q4 8:02
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  83. Q4 8:04
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point running pullup jump shot
  84. Q4 8:09
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  85. Q4 8:14
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  86. Q4 8:26
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  87. Q4 8:26
    Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
  88. Q4 8:27
    +3
    Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
    134-109
  89. Q4 8:31
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  90. Q4 8:35
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. blocks De'Aaron Fox's two point jump shot
  91. Q4 8:40
    Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
  92. Q4 8:44
    De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
  93. Q4 8:55
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  94. Q4 8:57
    Norman Powell misses three point jump shot
  95. Q4 9:10
    +3
    Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot
    134-109
  96. Q4 9:14
    Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
  97. Q4 9:18
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  98. Q4 9:30
    +3
    Norman Powell makes three point jump shot
    117-97
  99. Q4 9:34
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    117-97
  100. Q4 9:34
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  101. Q4 9:39
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  102. Q4 9:54
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  103. Q4 9:58
    Myron Gardner misses three point jump shot
  104. Q4 10:11
    Myron Gardner defensive rebound
  105. Q4 10:14
    Victor Wembanyama misses two point jump shot
  106. Q4 10:30
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
  107. Q4 10:33
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  108. Q4 10:44
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    117-97
  109. Q4 11:04
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    117-97
  110. Q4 11:09
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  111. Q4 11:14
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  112. Q4 11:22
    Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
  113. Q4 11:28
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  114. Q4 11:34
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  115. Q4 11:38
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  116. Q4 11:41
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  117. Q3 00:00
    +3
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes three point jump shot
    103-78
  118. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  119. Q3 00:00
    Instant replay
  120. Q4 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Carter Bryant)
  121. Q3 00:02
    Spurs personal foul
  122. Q3 00:05
    +2
    Victor Wembanyama makes two point running alley-oop layup (Keldon Johnson assists)
    103-78
  123. Q3 00:05
    Heat personal foul
  124. Q3 00:05
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    110-84
  125. Q3 00:07
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  126. Q3 00:10
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  127. Q3 00:28
    Spurs offensive rebound
  128. Q3 00:28
    Heat personal foul
  129. Q3 00:28
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    110-84
  130. Q3 00:28
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    110-84
  131. Q3 00:30
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  132. Q3 00:47
    +2
    Kel'el Ware makes two point jump shot
    103-78
  133. Q3 00:48
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  134. Q3 00:52
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  135. Q3 1:01
    Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
  136. Q3 1:01
    +2
    Kasparas Jakucionis makes two point jump shot
    103-76
  137. Q3 1:07
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  138. Q3 1:15
    Heat defensive rebound
  139. Q3 1:15
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. blocks Victor Wembanyama's two point jump shot
  140. Q3 1:15
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  141. Q3 1:15
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Myron Gardner, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  142. Q3 1:15
    Victor Wembanyama turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
  143. Q3 1:21
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  144. Q3 1:25
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  145. Q3 1:35
    Heat offensive rebound
  146. Q3 1:35
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  147. Q3 1:37
    Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
  148. Q3 1:43
    Myron Gardner defensive rebound
  149. Q3 1:45
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  150. Q3 1:45
    Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
  151. Q3 1:45
    Heat personal foul
  152. Q3 1:45
    +1
    Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    110-84
  153. Q3 1:45
    Harrison Barnes misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  154. Q3 1:45
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes)
  155. Q3 1:49
    Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
  156. Q3 1:49
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  157. Q3 1:51
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  158. Q3 1:56
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  159. Q3 2:03
    Myron Gardner personal foul
  160. Q3 2:03
    Spurs defensive rebound
  161. Q3 2:03
    +1
    Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    110-84
  162. Q3 2:03
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet)
  163. Q3 2:03
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  164. Q3 2:03
    +1
    Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    110-84
  165. Q3 2:04
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  166. Q3 2:19
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    110-84
  167. Q3 2:31
    +3
    Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes three point jump shot
    103-78
  168. Q3 2:44
    +2
    De'Aaron Fox makes two point floating jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)
    103-78
  169. Q3 3:06
    +2
    Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot
    95-71
  170. Q3 3:29
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    103-78
  171. Q3 3:38
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  172. Q3 3:43
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  173. Q3 3:55
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  174. Q3 3:59
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  175. Q3 4:10
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  176. Q3 4:10
    Luke Kornet personal foul
  177. Q3 4:10
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    103-78
  178. Q3 4:10
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    103-78
  179. Q3 4:10
    Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet)
  180. Q3 4:11
    Tyler Herro defensive rebound
  181. Q3 4:13
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  182. Q3 4:14
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  183. Q3 4:15
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  184. Q3 4:15
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  185. Q3 4:22
    Devin Vassell misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  186. Q3 4:34
    Norman Powell personal foul (Devin Vassell draws the foul)
  187. Q3 4:47
    +2
    Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)
    103-78
  188. Q3 5:01
    Tyler Herro defensive rebound
  189. Q3 5:06
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  190. Q3 5:25
    Stephon Castle shooting foul (Tyler Herro draws the foul)
  191. Q3 5:25
    Heat personal foul
  192. Q3 5:25
    +1
    Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  193. Q3 5:25
    +1
    Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    103-78
  194. Q3 5:42
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  195. Q3 5:51
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  196. Q3 5:51
    Spurs offensive rebound
  197. Q3 5:51
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  198. Q3 5:51
    Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  199. Q3 6:01
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  200. Q3 6:05
    Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
  201. Q3 6:19
    Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
  202. Q3 6:19
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  203. Q3 6:19
    Instant replay
  204. Q3 6:19
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  205. Q3 6:19
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  206. Q3 6:19
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  207. Q3 6:19
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
  208. Q3 6:19
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
  209. Q3 6:19
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
  210. Q3 6:19
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  211. Q3 6:19
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  212. Q3 6:20
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  213. Q3 6:21
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  214. Q3 6:25
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  215. Q3 6:28
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  216. Q3 6:35
    Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
  217. Q3 6:39
    Bam Adebayo misses two point driving floating jump shot
  218. Q3 6:52
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  219. Q3 7:07
    +3
    Tyler Herro makes three point pullup jump shot
    25-23
  220. Q3 7:23
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  221. Q3 7:23
    Davion Mitchell personal foul
  222. Q3 7:23
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  223. Q3 7:23
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  224. Q3 7:23
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  225. Q3 7:23
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  226. Q3 7:33
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  227. Q3 7:38
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  228. Q3 7:55
    +2
    Stephon Castle makes two point running layup (Julian Champagnie assists)
    25-23
  229. Q3 7:56
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  230. Q3 8:00
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  231. Q3 8:14
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  232. Q3 8:14
    Heat 60 second timeout
  233. Q3 8:23
    Heat turnover
  234. Q3 8:38
    Heat personal foul
  235. Q3 8:38
    Spurs personal foul
  236. Q3 8:38
    Pelle Larsson personal foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
  237. Q3 8:38
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  238. Q3 8:38
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  239. Q3 8:41
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  240. Q3 8:44
    Pelle Larsson misses two point jump shot
  241. Q3 9:06
    Andrew Wiggins shooting foul (Devin Vassell draws the foul)
  242. Q3 9:06
    +1
    Devin Vassell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    25-23
  243. Q3 9:06
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  244. Q3 9:24
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  245. Q3 9:27
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  246. Q3 9:36
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  247. Q3 9:39
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  248. Q3 9:48
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  249. Q3 9:51
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  250. Q3 10:05
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  251. Q3 10:23
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  252. Q3 10:26
    Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
  253. Q3 10:28
    Tyler Herro defensive rebound
  254. Q3 10:31
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  255. Q3 10:39
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  256. Q3 10:45
    Andrew Wiggins misses three point jump shot
  257. Q3 11:00
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  258. Q3 11:03
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  259. Q3 11:08
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  260. Q3 11:10
    Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
  261. Q3 11:19
    De'Aaron Fox offensive foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
  262. Q3 11:19
    De'Aaron Fox turnover (offensive foul)
  263. Q3 11:23
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  264. Q3 11:27
    Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
  265. Q3 11:34
    Spurs turnover
  266. Q3 11:46
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  267. Q3 11:46
    Spurs personal foul
  268. Q3 11:46
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  269. Q2 00:00
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  270. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  271. Q3 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  272. Q2 00:02
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  273. Q2 00:12
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  274. Q2 00:14
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  275. Q2 00:19
    Heat turnover
  276. Q2 00:19
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  277. Q2 00:37
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  278. Q2 00:39
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  279. Q2 00:56
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  280. Q2 1:08
    Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
  281. Q2 1:08
    Heat personal foul
  282. Q2 1:08
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  283. Q2 1:08
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
  284. Q2 1:08
    +1
    Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  285. Q2 1:10
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  286. Q2 1:20
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  287. Q2 1:27
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  288. Q2 1:36
    Heat personal foul
  289. Q2 1:36
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  290. Q2 1:36
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  291. Q2 1:44
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  292. Q2 2:01
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  293. Q2 2:07
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  294. Q2 2:10
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  295. Q2 2:23
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  296. Q2 2:34
    Spurs personal foul
  297. Q2 2:34
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo)
  298. Q2 2:34
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
  299. Q2 2:34
    Norman Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  300. Q2 2:34
    Heat offensive rebound
  301. Q2 2:34
    +1
    Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  302. Q2 2:34
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
  303. Q2 2:38
    Spurs turnover
  304. Q2 2:47
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  305. Q2 2:51
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  306. Q2 2:56
    Spurs turnover
  307. Q2 3:08
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  308. Q2 3:20
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  309. Q2 3:32
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  310. Q2 3:48
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  311. Q2 3:55
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  312. Q2 4:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  313. Q2 4:11
    Spurs turnover
  314. Q2 4:22
    Heat turnover
  315. Q2 4:22
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell)
  316. Q2 4:22
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo)
  317. Q2 4:38
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  318. Q2 4:55
    Spurs personal foul
  319. Q2 4:55
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  320. Q2 4:55
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  321. Q2 4:55
    Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
  322. Q2 5:10
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  323. Q2 5:10
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  324. Q2 5:10
    Heat personal foul
  325. Q2 5:10
    Luke Kornet misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  326. Q2 5:10
    Spurs offensive rebound
  327. Q2 5:10
    +1
    Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  328. Q2 5:10
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
  329. Q2 5:13
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  330. Q2 5:16
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  331. Q2 5:31
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  332. Q2 5:32
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
  333. Q2 5:33
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  334. Q2 5:39
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  335. Q2 5:40
    Heat offensive rebound
  336. Q2 5:40
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  337. Q2 5:43
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  338. Q2 5:45
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  339. Q2 5:48
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  340. Q2 5:51
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  341. Q2 6:09
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  342. Q2 6:09
    Spurs personal foul
  343. Q2 6:09
    +1
    Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    25-23
  344. Q2 6:21
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  345. Q2 6:30
    Heat turnover
  346. Q2 6:43
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  347. Q2 6:53
    Heat personal foul
  348. Q2 6:53
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware)
  349. Q2 6:54
    Heat turnover
  350. Q2 7:00
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  351. Q2 7:00
    Stephon Castle turnover (out of bounds step)
  352. Q2 7:02
    Heat offensive rebound
  353. Q2 7:02
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  354. Q2 7:02
    Davion Mitchell turnover (bad pass) (Stephon Castle steals)
  355. Q2 7:05
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  356. Q2 7:16
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  357. Q2 7:28
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  358. Q2 7:30
    Heat personal foul
  359. Q2 7:30
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
  360. Q2 7:30
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware)
  361. Q2 7:37
    Carter Bryant defensive rebound
  362. Q2 7:40
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  363. Q2 7:45
    Spurs personal foul
  364. Q2 7:45
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
  365. Q2 7:45
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
  366. Q2 7:51
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  367. Q2 8:06
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  368. Q2 8:18
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  369. Q2 8:40
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  370. Q2 8:46
    Spurs turnover
  371. Q2 8:55
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  372. Q2 9:05
    Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
  373. Q2 9:10
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  374. Q2 9:14
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  375. Q2 9:16
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  376. Q2 9:29
    Spurs personal foul
  377. Q2 9:37
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  378. Q2 9:37
    Heat 60 second timeout
  379. Q2 9:40
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  380. Q2 9:42
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  381. Q2 9:52
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  382. Q2 10:04
    Heat turnover
  383. Q2 10:04
    Spurs violation
  384. Q2 10:04
    Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  385. Q2 10:04
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Carter Bryant)
  386. Q2 10:23
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  387. Q2 10:39
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  388. Q2 10:48
    Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
  389. Q2 10:52
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  390. Q2 10:56
    Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
  391. Q2 10:59
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  392. Q2 11:24
    Heat personal foul
  393. Q2 11:24
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    25-23
  394. Q2 11:24
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-23
  395. Q2 11:35
    Heat personal foul
  396. Q2 11:35
    +1
    Julian Champagnie makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    25-23
  397. Q2 11:35
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  398. Q2 11:37
    Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
  399. Q2 11:40
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  400. Q1 00:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  401. Q1 00:00
    Heat offensive rebound
  402. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  403. Q2 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Carter Bryant)
  404. Q2 12:00
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  405. Q1 00:03
    Spurs personal foul
  406. Q1 00:03
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  407. Q1 00:12
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  408. Q1 00:33
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  409. Q1 00:37
    Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
  410. Q1 00:41
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  411. Q1 00:46
    Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
  412. Q1 00:49
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  413. Q1 00:57
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  414. Q1 1:01
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  415. Q1 1:07
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  416. Q1 1:09
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  417. Q1 1:35
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  418. Q1 1:54
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  419. Q1 1:54
    Heat defensive rebound
  420. Q1 1:54
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  421. Q1 1:57
    Heat turnover
  422. Q1 2:08
    Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
  423. Q1 2:10
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  424. Q1 2:23
    Heat turnover
  425. Q1 2:24
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  426. Q1 2:26
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  427. Q1 2:40
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  428. Q1 2:40
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  429. Q1 2:43
    Norman Powell defensive rebound
  430. Q1 2:44
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  431. Q1 2:44
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  432. Q1 2:44
    Tyler Herro turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  433. Q1 2:49
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  434. Q1 3:03
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  435. Q1 3:17
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  436. Q1 3:19
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  437. Q1 3:22
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  438. Q1 3:23
    Tyler Herro defensive rebound
  439. Q1 3:28
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  440. Q1 3:38
    Heat violation
  441. Q1 3:50
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  442. Q1 3:53
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  443. Q1 3:59
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  444. Q1 3:59
    Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet)
  445. Q1 3:59
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
  446. Q1 4:08
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  447. Q1 4:29
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    25-23
  448. Q1 4:39
    Dylan Harper offensive rebound
  449. Q1 4:40
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  450. Q1 4:40
    Stoppage (Injury)
  451. Q1 4:40
    Spurs violation
  452. Q1 4:40
    Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
  453. Q1 4:43
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  454. Q1 4:44
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  455. Q1 4:49
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  456. Q1 5:13
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    25-23
  457. Q1 5:19
    Heat personal foul
  458. Q1 5:19
    Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  459. Q1 5:19
    Spurs offensive rebound
  460. Q1 5:19
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    25-20
  461. Q1 5:23
    Spurs offensive rebound
  462. Q1 5:23
    Heat personal foul
  463. Q1 5:26
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  464. Q1 5:35
    Spurs offensive rebound
  465. Q1 5:35
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  466. Q1 5:35
    Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
  467. Q1 5:35
    Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
  468. Q1 5:37
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  469. Q1 5:56
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  470. Q1 5:59
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  471. Q1 6:10
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    24-20
  472. Q1 6:20
    +3
    Heat makes three point jump shot
    22-20
  473. Q1 6:38
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    22-17
  474. Q1 6:56
    Spurs personal foul
  475. Q1 6:56
    Heat 60 second timeout
  476. Q1 6:56
    Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell)
  477. Q1 6:56
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    19-16
  478. Q1 6:56
    +1
    Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    19-17
  479. Q1 7:04
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    19-15
  480. Q1 7:12
    Stephon Castle offensive rebound
  481. Q1 7:16
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  482. Q1 7:24
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    16-15
  483. Q1 7:37
    Heat personal foul
  484. Q1 7:37
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    15-13
  485. Q1 7:37
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    16-13
  486. Q1 7:48
    Spurs personal foul
  487. Q1 7:48
    +1
    Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    14-12
  488. Q1 7:48
    +1
    Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    14-13
  489. Q1 7:51
    Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
  490. Q1 7:53
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  491. Q1 8:00
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    14-11
  492. Q1 8:12
    Heat personal foul
  493. Q1 8:12
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    13-9
  494. Q1 8:12
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    14-9
  495. Q1 8:16
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  496. Q1 8:20
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  497. Q1 8:30
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    11-9
  498. Q1 8:30
    Heat personal foul
  499. Q1 8:30
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    12-9
  500. Q1 8:42
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    9-9
  501. Q1 9:00
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    9-7
  502. Q1 9:07
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  503. Q1 9:09
    Heat misses two point jump shot
  504. Q1 9:15
    Spurs turnover
  505. Q1 9:36
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    7-7
  506. Q1 9:43
    De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound
  507. Q1 9:46
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  508. Q1 9:58
    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
  509. Q1 10:03
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  510. Q1 10:13
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    7-5
  511. Q1 10:31
    +2
    Heat makes two point jump shot
    5-5
  512. Q1 10:36
    Spurs turnover
  513. Q1 10:44
    Devin Vassell defensive rebound
  514. Q1 10:47
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  515. Q1 10:55
    Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
  516. Q1 11:00
    Heat misses three point jump shot
  517. Q1 11:14
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    5-3
  518. Q1 11:30
    +3
    Bam Adebayo makes three point jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
    2-3
Box Score
Spurs
PosPlayerPts
Heat
PosPlayerPts

Spurs vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Spurs vs. Heat
  • Date: Monday, March 23, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Spurs favored at -2.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Spurs 60¢, Heat 40¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Spurs: 63%
  • Heat: 37%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 123-120 Heat.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 63%, while the Heat have a win probability of 37%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Spurs vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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