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Spurs vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Spurs vs. Heat NBA game on March 23, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
136
111
Mar 23, 11PM Kaseya Center
Mar 23, 11PM Kaseya Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 25 | 0 | 78 | 33 | 136 |
Heat | 23 | 0 | 55 | 33 | 111 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | 25 | 0 | 78 | 33 | 136 |
Heat | 23 | 0 | 55 | 33 | 111 |
Q4 00:01 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:16 Keshad Johnson makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:05 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:38 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:00 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:10 Carter Bryant misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:26 Kel'el Ware makes two point pullup jump shot
Q4 2:39 Keshad Johnson misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:39 Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Heat offensive rebound
End of 4th Quarter.
Myron Gardner misses heave shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
136-111
+2
Keshad Johnson makes two point jump shot
134-111
Carter Bryant turnover (Simone Fontecchio steals)
+1
Keshad Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
134-108
+1
Keshad Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
134-109
Carter Bryant shooting foul (Keshad Johnson draws the foul)
Carter Bryant turnover (lost ball) (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
Carter Bryant shooting foul (Myron Gardner draws the foul)
+1
Myron Gardner makes regular free throw 1 of 1
134-107
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
136-111
Spurs turnover
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
136-111
Heat turnover
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Carter Bryant misses three point jump shot
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point pullup jump shot
134-109
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Carter Bryant turnover (bad pass) (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
Keshad Johnson misses two point jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
Kasparas Jakucionis misses three point pullup jump shot
Keldon Johnson personal foul (Myron Gardner draws the foul)
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Keshad Johnson, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Spurs lineup change (Bismack Biyombo, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan McLaughlin, Lindy Waters III, Carter Bryant)
Heat lineup change (Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Keshad Johnson, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
134-109
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
136-111
+3
Keldon Johnson makes three point jump shot
134-109
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Norman Powell misses three point pullup jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
134-109
+3
Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot
126-97
Heat misses two point jump shot
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
Kel'el Ware misses two point dunk
Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
Dylan Harper blocks Kasparas Jakucionis's two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive goaltending violation
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
136-111
Dylan Harper offensive rebound
Myron Gardner blocks Dylan Harper's two point jump shot
Norman Powell turnover (Harrison Barnes steals)
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Dylan Harper misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Norman Powell, Simone Fontecchio, Myron Gardner, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
134-109
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
134-109
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Keldon Johnson misses three point jump shot
+2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point running finger roll layup (Norman Powell assists)
134-109
Spurs turnover
Kel'el Ware blocks Keldon Johnson's two point layup
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Myron Gardner makes three point stepback jump shot
134-109
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Harrison Barnes misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Carter Bryant shooting foul (Norman Powell draws the foul)
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
134-109
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
134-109
Spurs personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
+2
Dylan Harper makes two point jump shot
134-107
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point running pullup jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
+3
Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
134-109
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. blocks De'Aaron Fox's two point jump shot
Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
De'Aaron Fox misses three point jump shot
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Norman Powell misses three point jump shot
+3
Harrison Barnes makes three point jump shot
134-109
Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Norman Powell makes three point jump shot
117-97
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
117-97
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Myron Gardner misses three point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Victor Wembanyama misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
117-97
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
117-97
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes three point jump shot
103-78
End of 3rd Quarter.
Instant replay
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Carter Bryant)
Spurs personal foul
+2
Victor Wembanyama makes two point running alley-oop layup (Keldon Johnson assists)
103-78
Heat personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 1
110-84
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
110-84
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
110-84
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point jump shot
103-78
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
+2
Kasparas Jakucionis makes two point jump shot
103-76
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. blocks Victor Wembanyama's two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Myron Gardner, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Victor Wembanyama turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 1 of 2
110-84
Harrison Barnes misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes)
Harrison Barnes misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Myron Gardner personal foul
Spurs defensive rebound
+1
Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 1 of 2
110-84
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet)
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner, Kasparas Jakucionis)
+1
Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 2 of 2
110-84
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
110-84
+3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes three point jump shot
103-78
+2
De'Aaron Fox makes two point floating jump shot (Dylan Harper assists)
103-78
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot
95-71
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
103-78
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
Luke Kornet personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
103-78
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-78
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet)
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Devin Vassell misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Norman Powell personal foul (Devin Vassell draws the foul)
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)
103-78
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle shooting foul (Tyler Herro draws the foul)
Heat personal foul
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-78
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Instant replay
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
Spurs 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Myron Gardner)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
+3
Tyler Herro makes three point pullup jump shot
25-23
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
Davion Mitchell personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Stephon Castle makes two point running layup (Julian Champagnie assists)
25-23
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat turnover
Heat personal foul
Spurs personal foul
Pelle Larsson personal foul (Stephon Castle draws the foul)
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses two point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins shooting foul (Devin Vassell draws the foul)
+1
Devin Vassell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
25-23
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
De'Aaron Fox offensive foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
De'Aaron Fox turnover (offensive foul)
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Spurs personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
+1
Keldon Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
+1
Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
Spurs personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell)
Norman Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie)
Spurs turnover
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-23
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs turnover
Heat turnover
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Spurs personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Luke Kornet misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
Spurs personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
25-23
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
Heat turnover
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware)
Heat turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stephon Castle turnover (out of bounds step)
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Davion Mitchell turnover (bad pass) (Stephon Castle steals)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat personal foul
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware)
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-23
Spurs turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Spurs personal foul
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Heat 60 second timeout
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Heat turnover
Spurs violation
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Carter Bryant)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-23
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-23
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-23
Heat personal foul
+1
Julian Champagnie makes technical free throw 1 of 1
25-23
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 1st Quarter.
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Carter Bryant)
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Spurs personal foul
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-23
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Spurs 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Luke Kornet offensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Tyler Herro turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-23
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Heat violation
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet)
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis)
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
25-23
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-23
Dylan Harper offensive rebound
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
25-23
Stoppage (Injury)
Spurs violation
Spurs lineup change (De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
Spurs misses two point jump shot
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
25-23
Heat personal foul
Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Spurs offensive rebound
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
25-20
Spurs offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Spurs offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Spurs lineup change (Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet)
Heat lineup change (Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware)
Spurs misses three point jump shot
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
24-20
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
22-20
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
22-17
Spurs personal foul
Heat 60 second timeout
Spurs lineup change (Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell)
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
19-16
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
19-17
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
19-15
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
16-15
Heat personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
15-13
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
16-13
Spurs personal foul
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 2
14-12
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 2
14-13
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
14-11
Heat personal foul
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
13-9
+1
Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
14-9
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
11-9
Heat personal foul
+1
De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 1
12-9
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
9-9
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
9-7
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Spurs turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
7-7
De'Aaron Fox offensive rebound
Spurs misses three point jump shot
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Spurs makes two point jump shot
7-5
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
5-5
Spurs turnover
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Spurs makes three point jump shot
5-3
+3
Bam Adebayo makes three point jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
2-3
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 0 | J. McLaughlin | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| C | 18 | B. Biyombo | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 43 | L. Waters III | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F-C | 8 | K. Olynyk | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| F | 11 | C. Bryant | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 15 | M. Gardner | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| F | 0 | S. Fontecchio | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| C | 7 | K. Ware | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| G | 25 | K. Jakucionis | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| F | 16 | K. Johnson | 4 | 1 | 1 |
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Spurs vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Spurs vs. Heat
- Date: Monday, March 23, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Spurs favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 228.5
- Moneyline Odds: Spurs -148, Heat +144
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Spurs: 63%
- Heat: 37%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Spurs 123-120 Heat.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Spurs a win probability of 63%, while the Heat have a win probability of 37%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Spurs vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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