Quinn Ewers projected stats and opening lines in first start vs. Bengals

Rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers is set to make his first NFL start on Sunday after Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel decided to bench starter Tua Tagovailoa ahead of Miami’s Week 16 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The move comes after weeks of declining offensive efficiency and culminated in Monday night’s blowout loss, in which Tagovailoa struggled mightily before piling up production in garbage time. With the passing game stagnating and turnovers mounting behind Tua's league-leading 15 interceptions, McDaniel now turns to the seventh-round rookie from Texas in hopes of injecting stability and perhaps a spark into an offense that's slowed to a halt.

From a betting and projection standpoint, Ewers’ first start is expected to be modest, but not disastrous, particularly with Miami still projected to move the ball effectively on the ground behind RB phenom De'Von Achane.

According to Dimers Pro’s NFL player projections, Ewers profiles as a mid-volume option in his debut rather than a quarterback asked to carry the offense, though given the Bengals' league-worst defense that's allowed 53 touchdowns and over 400 yards per game.

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Quinn Ewers' projected stats vs. Bengals

Pass completions: 18.3
Passing yards: 200.2
Rushing yards: 9.9
Under 1.5 Passing TDs: 73.9%

Those numbers reflect Miami’s likely game plan — limiting exposure for the rookie while leaning on its skill-position talent to create yards after the catch against a Bengals' passing defense that allows 245.9 yards per game.

The projections also suggest Ewers’ fantasy and prop value will be highly dependent on touchdown variance, with limited upside unless Miami finds success in the red zone, as the Dimers model projects Ewers with a 73.9% probability to throw under 1.5 touchdowns.

Early value props on Quinn Ewers' opening lines.

Still, a 200-yard passing projection in a first career start suggests that the Dolphins offense is not expected to completely stall, especially with his line set at 184.5 passing yards. This team does make explosive plays in the passing game out of the backfield, which would boost Ewers' production.

For a deeper betting breakdown, including our picks on the spread, moneyline and total, see our full Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction.

Projecting the rest of the Dolphins' offense

While Ewers’ debut will dominate headlines, De’Von Achane remains the engine of the Dolphins' offense in our projections.

Our model has Achane leading all Miami skill players with 77.8 rushing yards while adding another 31.1 receiving yards on 4.0 receptions. He also carries a 54.2% probability to score at least one touchdown, by far the highest on the team, as Miami is unlikely to fully move away from their reliance on explosive runs.

In the passing game, Jaylen Waddle projects as Ewers’ top wide receiver, pacing the group with 4.3 receptions and 60.4 receiving yards. His role as a quick-separation target fits well with a rookie quarterback making his first start, and Ewers will likely look for him often.

At tight end, Darren Waller is projected for 3.0 receptions and 31.5 yards, offering a reliable intermediate option over the middle, while Malik Washington rounds out the top three options in the pass-catching group with 3.0 receptions for 26.9 yards, though could mix in as a rusher on spot plays as he has in the past, projecting for 9.4 yards on the ground.

Projections for the Dolphins' skill position players.

Overall, Dimers’ projections paint a picture of a Dolphins offense that remains functional and perhaps even competitive despite the quarterback change.

While Ewers’ ceiling is limited in his debut, Miami’s rushing attack and short passing game should keep them within striking distance against a Bengals team favored by the market but not projected to dominate.

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