Betting Guide for Game 5 of Lightning vs. Avalanche in the 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Final

Tonight in Denver, the Colorado Avalanche look to close out the Stanley Cup Finals against the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning, leading 3 games to 1.

Dimers.com hockey expert Stevie Johnson weighs in on the key factors in Game 5, while we've teamed up with BetMGM for an awesome NHL promotion.

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche

Stanley Cup Final: Game 5

Friday June 24, 2022 8PM ET

Why the favorite Avalanche will cover the puck line

The Colorado Avalanche are a +145 to cover the puck line in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Why will they cover? It’s simple: Colorado has been the faster and more effective team this series. Colorado has outshot Tampa Bay 144-111 over the first four games with 10 different players registering a goal.

The power play has been particularly effective for the Avs. They led the playoffs in power play scoring, registering a goal 34.5% of the time and have scored six against Tampa Bay.

NHL fan banned from Colorado Avalanche games after spreading friend’s ashes on the ice https://t.co/HdWXJHGQ7O pic.twitter.com/Md8YFGnqM1

— The Hill (@thehill) June 24, 2022

In three games this series Colorado scored on 50% of its power play opportunities. The Lightning have just two for comparison. Darcy Kuemper has outplayed Andrei Vasilevskiy with a 90% save rate compared to 88% for the "best goalie in the world."

Colorado's depth has also been key as Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen have combined for just one goal. It hasn’t mattered with Cole Makar, Gabriel Landeskog and others stepping up. Sensing the moment to win the Cup in front of their home fans, expect the Avs to do it in style.

Why the underdog Lightning will cover the puck line

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won back-to-back championships and have no intention of folding so easily.

Two games have been blowouts, while the other two required overtime for the finish. Tampa has done a much better job of giving the Avalanche a bit of their own medicine by generating takeaways.

Hello, we'd like to report a robbery. pic.twitter.com/X6KOd49GaL

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) June 21, 2022

Tampa Bay has matched or exceeded the number of takeaways produced by the Avs and had their most success the last two games. There’s a formula for success there.

Vasilevskiy is still the best goalie in the world and had 37 saves in the Game 3 win. A big-time game from him is key to the Lightning covering and having a chance to win late. Tampa will play its most disciplined game of the series, limiting power play opportunities and can stay alive in the series on a late goal or in OT.

DimersBOT Pick: Lightning on the money line (2.3% Edge)

Why Lightning vs. Avalanche will go Over 6 Total Goals

The over has hit three times this series with the current line set at 6. There’s too much talent on the ice between the two teams’ top lines for this game not to hit the over. Keep in mind we haven’t seen big games yet from MacKinnon or Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos.

The Avalanche should be good for around three goals on their own and maybe more depending on their power play chances.

Tampa Bay has a bit more difficulty getting past Kuemper but are being more aggressive. After failing to produce more than 23 shots in the first two games, the Lightning have produced 39 and 33 in the last two games.

Expect an aggressive Lightning attack offensively while the Avalanche continue to be relentless with a man advantage. 

DimersBOT Pick: OVER at a 50% probability

Why Lightning vs. Avalanche will stay Under 6 Total Goals

These have been two of the best defenses all season and with a championship on the line this could easily turn into a bit of a grudge match. Tampa must use its physicality to muck the game up and slow the pace of the Avs.

Andrei Vasilevskiy with a shark (which he released) pic.twitter.com/qVkZhWeI6M

— Hockey Players With Animals (And Other Chaos) (@animalsofhockey) June 24, 2022

If the Lightning can do that, there’s a chance for the under to cash. The real key will be Vasilevskiy who has given up at least three goals in three games this series. That’s uncharacteristic by his standards.

A vintage Vasilevskiy performance is the key and with the season on the line, he’ll deliver.

X-Factor: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Center

MacKinnon has been quiet this series with just three points and one goal scored. The Avs haven’t needed him much thanks to their depth, but this could be the final game of the season.

Nathan MacKinnon is lucky to have a friend like Sidney Crosbyhttps://t.co/JH9WGrOExK

— Yahoo Sports NHL (@YahooSportsNHL) June 23, 2022

MacKinnon broke out of his mini-drought with eight shots on goal to finally to get his first goal of the series in Game 4 and we should expect a similar approach in Game 5. Every time MacKinnon has registered six shots on goal it’s resulted in a point, often a goal.

Leading the charge for a Stanley Cup championship, expecting MacKinnon to go at Vasilevskiy early and often.