Super Bowl Sunday is the best day on the NFL calendar. Not only does it pit the best vs. the best, but there’s so much fun to be had with Super Bowl betting and this year's edition will be no exception.
Super Bowls are known for their famous prop bets. Most sportsbooks offer anything from the almost certain to the downright silly. You can bet on the length of the national anthem, all the way to the likelihood of a safety.
Before we get into it, let’s just remind ourselves about how to read NFL betting odds.
- If a team has a -200 moneyline it means you need to wager $200 in order to win $100 ($300 payout)
- A -150 moneyline, you say? You’d need to wager $150 to win $100 ($250 payout/total). If you wagered $75 on -150, you’d win $50
- If a team has a “+” moneyline, the goalposts shift. The + tells us how much you would win betting $100, if you win of course
- For example, a +150 moneyline would mean — if successful — a profit of $150 ($250 payout). If a team had a +185 moneyline, you would make $185 profit — $285 total — when betting $100
Okay, now that we understand odds, we can get right into prop bets. If you want to know more about prop bets and Super Bowl trends, don’t sweat.
Ready? Let’s go!
Good Super Bowl Prop Bets
Super Bowl MVP
The most prestigious prop bet, well for players anyway., has to be the Super Bowl MVP. Traditionally, Super Bowl MVP winners come from the victorious team and almost as frequently, their quarterback - see Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV or Tom Brady in Super Bowl LV.
Patrick Mahomes is adding to a STACKED resume— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 25, 2021
➖ Super Bowl champ
➖ Super Bowl MVP
➖ 2 AFC titles
➖ 3x Pro Bowl
➖ First-Team All-Pro
➖ 50 TDs in one season
➖ First QB with three 10-point comebacks in one postseason
➖ Biggest contract in NFL history
He's only 25 pic.twitter.com/rcQon3TJ5b
Of the last 11 MVP’s, all were from the winning team. Unsurprisingly too, eight of those 11 were quarterbacks. However, two LB’s — Von Miller and Malcolm Smith — have come up big. Julian Edelman was the other outlier, starring for New England in their huge Super Bowl upset win over LA in February 2019.
After their NFC Championship Game performances Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett could be a chance. Chris Godwin or Mike Evans would be your other go-to options outside of the GOAT. On the KC side, if you want someone other than 15, Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce are can’t miss!
Who will win the Super Bowl?
Tampa Bay is coming in hot and are the first team since the 2010 Packers to win three straight road games en route to the Super Bowl. Brady and his Bucs won’t be shy at throwing it deep and can more than hold their own on D.
The deep ball specialists - Kansas City - steamrolled into their second-straight Super Bowl appearance. With everyone on the offense healthy, there’s no reason they can’t run it back and spoil TB12’s party.
Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl last season and Tom Brady won it the previous season.— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 25, 2021
This will be the 1st ever Super Bowl between the last 2 Super Bowl-winning QBs. It's also the 7th Super Bowl overall between QBs who had previously won one. pic.twitter.com/ERR1GR7RXe
But if you really want to see who the best moneyline option is, check on Dimers’ Super Bowl matchup hub. We’ll show you the probabilities for the moneyline, spread and prop bets too.
Over/Under Total Points Scored
Across the last ten Super Bowl’s the average total score was 49.0. Undoubtedly this was brought down by the 16 combined points in Super Bowl LIII. That snore fest aside, we have an average total points scored of 53.2.
The Chiefs and Bucs clashed down in Tampa in Week 12, with KC winning 27-24, amassing a total of 51 points.
Tampa’s defense has allowed an average of 23 points in the postseason, while Brady and the O have scored 30.67 points on average. They’ve also hit the over in two of their last three games.
Meanwhile, the red-hot Kansas City have averaged 30 points for, and allowed 20.5 points in their two playoff games. The Chiefs have gone 50/50 on the over, but you mustn’t forget Mahomes was injured for most of the second half against Cleveland.
Will there be a successful two-point conversion?
There have been 10 successful two-point conversions in Super Bowl history. Ultimately, this will depend on the mindset of both coaches and perhaps whether their kicker has missed an extra point. Quite often teams won’t need to score for the two-point effort unless there has been a safety or missed extra point.
The last team to have a successful two-point conversion was in Super Bowl LI during New England’s famous comeback against Atlanta. Interestingly, that game had two, two-point conversions — James White first, before Danny Amendola leveled the game at 28-28.
Which team scores first?
Across the last 11 years, the team which scores first has lifted the Lombardi Trophy all bar two. Does that sting Chiefs and Atlanta fans?
Teams haven’t scored on the first possession in a Super Bowl since Jake Elliott for the Eagles in Super Bowl LII.
First scorer in Tampa’s postseason games:
- @ Washington - TB received, scored opening-drive FG
- @ New Orleans - TB received, punted. NO scored first (FG)
- @ Green Bay - TB received, scored opening-drive TD
First scorer in Kansas City’s postseason games:
- vs. Cleveland - KC received, scored opening-drive TD
- vs. Buffalo - KC kicked off, Buffalo scored on opening possession (FG)
Scorers by position last 11 Super Bowls:
First TD scorer in Tampa’s playoff games:
- @ WFT - Antonio Brown (Bucs WR)
- @ NO - Mike Evans (Bucs WR)
- @ GB - Mike Evans (Bucs WR)
First TD scorer in Kansas City’s playoff games:
- vs. Cleveland - Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs QB)
- vs. Buffalo - Dawson Knox (Bills TE)