Celtics vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Celtics vs. Warriors NBA game on February 19, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
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NBA
Celtics
121
110
Chase Center
Warriors
Chase Center
TEAM1234T
Celtics
36 59 7 19 121
Warriors
32 29 12 37 110
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Celtics
    >99%
  • Warriors
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Celtics
36 59 7 19 121
Warriors
32 29 12 37 110
Q4 00:18 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:29 Celtics misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:53 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:59 Celtics makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:15 Warriors misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Sam Hauser misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:26 Sam Hauser misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Celtics makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:24 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:28 Celtics misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  2. Q4 00:18
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    121-110
  3. Q4 00:26
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  4. Q4 00:29
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  5. Q4 00:49
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  6. Q4 00:53
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  7. Q4 00:59
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    121-108
  8. Q4 1:14
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  9. Q4 1:15
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  10. Q4 1:24
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  11. Q4 1:24
    Warriors defensive rebound
  12. Q4 1:24
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  13. Q4 1:24
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White)
  14. Q4 1:24
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  15. Q4 1:24
    Warriors defensive rebound
  16. Q4 1:24
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White)
  17. Q4 1:24
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White)
  18. Q4 1:24
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White)
  19. Q4 1:24
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  20. Q4 1:24
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  21. Q4 1:24
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta, Derrick White)
  22. Q4 1:25
    Sam Hauser misses two point jump shot
  23. Q4 1:26
    Sam Hauser misses two point jump shot
  24. Q4 1:36
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  25. Q4 1:36
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  26. Q4 1:36
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  27. Q4 1:36
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  28. Q4 1:37
    Celtics personal foul
  29. Q4 1:37
    +1
    De'Anthony Melton makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    119-107
  30. Q4 1:37
    De'Anthony Melton misses regular free throw 2 of 3
  31. Q4 1:37
    Warriors offensive rebound
  32. Q4 1:37
    +1
    De'Anthony Melton makes regular free throw 3 of 3
    119-108
  33. Q4 1:37
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  34. Q4 1:37
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  35. Q4 1:37
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  36. Q4 1:37
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  37. Q4 1:49
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    119-106
  38. Q4 2:01
    Warriors personal foul
  39. Q4 2:01
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton)
  40. Q4 2:22
    Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
  41. Q4 2:24
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  42. Q4 2:27
    Gui Santos defensive rebound
  43. Q4 2:28
    Sam Hauser offensive rebound
  44. Q4 2:28
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  45. Q4 2:34
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  46. Q4 2:57
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    117-106
  47. Q4 3:12
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  48. Q4 3:14
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  49. Q4 3:27
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  50. Q4 3:30
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  51. Q4 3:40
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  52. Q4 3:43
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  53. Q4 4:04
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    117-104
  54. Q4 4:05
    Gary Payton II offensive rebound
  55. Q4 4:10
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  56. Q4 4:16
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  57. Q4 4:18
    Derrick White misses three point jump shot
  58. Q4 4:33
    Warriors personal foul
  59. Q4 4:33
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski)
  60. Q4 4:41
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    117-102
  61. Q4 4:56
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    117-99
  62. Q4 5:13
    Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
  63. Q4 5:16
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  64. Q4 5:27
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    114-99
  65. Q4 5:45
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  66. Q4 5:47
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  67. Q4 5:53
    Celtics turnover
  68. Q4 6:01
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    111-99
  69. Q4 6:04
    Celtics turnover
  70. Q4 6:26
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    111-97
  71. Q4 6:28
    Gary Payton II offensive rebound
  72. Q4 6:28
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  73. Q4 6:34
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  74. Q4 6:44
    Payton Pritchard turnover
  75. Q4 6:44
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Nikola Vucevic)
  76. Q4 6:44
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Gui Santos, De'Anthony Melton)
  77. Q4 6:55
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    111-94
  78. Q4 7:11
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    111-92
  79. Q4 7:23
    Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound
  80. Q4 7:27
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  81. Q4 7:50
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    109-92
  82. Q4 8:02
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    109-90
  83. Q4 8:22
    Sam Hauser defensive rebound
  84. Q4 8:24
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  85. Q4 8:35
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    107-90
  86. Q4 8:56
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    105-90
  87. Q4 9:03
    Pat Spencer defensive rebound
  88. Q4 9:06
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  89. Q4 9:06
    Nikola Vucevic misses two point tip layup
  90. Q4 9:06
    Pat Spencer defensive rebound
  91. Q4 9:33
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    105-87
  92. Q4 9:36
    Celtics turnover
  93. Q4 9:39
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  94. Q4 9:49
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  95. Q4 9:49
    Celtics lineup change (Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Baylor Scheierman, Nikola Vucevic)
  96. Q4 9:51
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    105-85
  97. Q4 9:56
    Jordan Walsh turnover (lost ball) (De'Anthony Melton steals)
  98. Q4 10:00
    Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
  99. Q4 10:02
    +2
    De'Anthony Melton makes two point jump shot
    105-82
  100. Q4 10:02
    Baylor Scheierman personal foul
  101. Q4 10:02
    De'Anthony Melton misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  102. Q4 10:13
    De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
  103. Q4 10:16
    Baylor Scheierman misses three point jump shot
  104. Q4 10:26
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    105-80
  105. Q4 10:31
    Baylor Scheierman turnover (bad pass) (Pat Spencer steals)
  106. Q4 10:52
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    105-78
  107. Q4 11:02
    +3
    Luka Garza makes three point jump shot (Payton Pritchard assists)
    105-75
  108. Q4 11:11
    Luka Garza offensive rebound
  109. Q4 11:14
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  110. Q4 11:42
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    105-80
  111. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  112. Q3 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  113. Q3 00:00
    Derrick White blocks Brandin Podziemski heave shot
  114. Q4 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Luka Garza, Ron Harper Jr., Payton Pritchard, Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman)
  115. Q4 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gary Payton II, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis, De'Anthony Melton)
  116. Q3 00:02
    +2
    Jaylen Brown makes two point jump shot
    102-73
  117. Q3 00:22
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  118. Q3 00:25
    Kristaps Porzingis misses three point jump shot
  119. Q3 00:31
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  120. Q3 00:33
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  121. Q3 00:34
    Nikola Vucevic offensive rebound
  122. Q3 00:37
    Kristaps Porzingis blocks Nikola Vucevic's two point driving layup
  123. Q3 00:49
    Warriors personal foul
  124. Q3 1:01
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    102-73
  125. Q3 1:09
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    102-73
  126. Q3 1:25
    Al Horford turnover
  127. Q3 1:35
    Moses Moody defensive rebound
  128. Q3 1:39
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  129. Q3 1:52
    +3
    Moses Moody makes three point jump shot
    98-71
  130. Q3 2:08
    Will Richard defensive rebound
  131. Q3 2:11
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  132. Q3 2:34
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    102-73
  133. Q3 2:36
    Jump ball. (Al Horford gains possession)
  134. Q3 2:38
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  135. Q3 2:38
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Payton Pritchard, Hugo Gonzalez, Derrick White, Nikola Vucevic)
  136. Q3 2:53
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    102-73
  137. Q3 3:05
    Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
  138. Q3 3:09
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    102-73
  139. Q3 3:11
    Will Richard defensive rebound
  140. Q3 3:15
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  141. Q3 3:19
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  142. Q3 3:37
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    102-73
  143. Q3 3:51
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    95-61
  144. Q3 4:06
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  145. Q3 4:08
    Nikola Vucevic personal foul (Moses Moody draws the foul)
  146. Q3 4:08
    Moses Moody misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  147. Q3 4:08
    Warriors offensive rebound
  148. Q3 4:08
    Moses Moody misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  149. Q3 4:10
    Moses Moody offensive rebound
  150. Q3 4:11
    Moses Moody misses two point driving layup
  151. Q3 4:20
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  152. Q3 4:23
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  153. Q3 4:32
    De'Anthony Melton personal foul
  154. Q3 4:32
    Warriors lineup change (Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis)
  155. Q3 4:32
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Ron Harper Jr., Payton Pritchard, Hugo Gonzalez, Nikola Vucevic)
  156. Q3 4:43
    +2
    Brandin Podziemski makes two point jump shot
    93-61
  157. Q3 4:52
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  158. Q3 4:55
    Celtics misses three point jump shot
  159. Q3 5:02
    Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
  160. Q3 5:05
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  161. Q3 5:27
    +2
    Nikola Vucevic makes two point jump shot (Derrick White assists)
    93-61
  162. Q3 5:39
    Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
  163. Q3 5:41
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  164. Q3 5:49
    De'Anthony Melton shooting foul (Derrick White draws the foul)
  165. Q3 5:49
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    91-59
  166. Q3 5:49
    +1
    Derrick White makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    91-59
  167. Q3 5:49
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Ron Harper Jr., Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Nikola Vucevic)
  168. Q3 5:49
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Ron Harper Jr., Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Nikola Vucevic)
  169. Q3 5:50
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Ron Harper Jr., Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Nikola Vucevic)
  170. Q3 6:10
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  171. Q3 6:13
    De'Anthony Melton misses three point jump shot
  172. Q3 6:19
    Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
  173. Q3 6:22
    Brandin Podziemski blocks Derrick White's two point pullup jump shot
  174. Q3 6:34
    Neemias Queta defensive rebound
  175. Q3 6:36
    Draymond Green misses two point floating jump shot
  176. Q3 6:44
    Warriors defensive rebound
  177. Q3 6:44
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  178. Q3 6:44
    Warriors lineup change (Al Horford, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Draymond Green, De'Anthony Melton)
  179. Q3 6:46
    Sam Hauser misses two point pullup jump shot
  180. Q3 7:10
    +3
    Gui Santos makes three point running jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    93-61
  181. Q3 7:17
    Jaylen Brown turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
  182. Q3 7:24
    Warriors turnover
  183. Q3 7:33
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    89-56
  184. Q3 7:48
    +2
    Warriors makes two point jump shot
    89-56
  185. Q3 8:03
    +2
    Derrick White makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
    87-54
  186. Q3 8:05
    Derrick White offensive rebound
  187. Q3 8:07
    Neemias Queta misses two point jump shot
  188. Q3 8:25
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  189. Q3 8:29
    Will Richard misses three point jump shot
  190. Q3 8:38
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    98-71
  191. Q3 8:38
    Warriors 60 second timeout
  192. Q3 8:38
    Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard, Draymond Green, De'Anthony Melton)
  193. Q3 8:47
    Celtics defensive rebound
  194. Q3 8:49
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  195. Q3 8:49
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  196. Q3 8:50
    Gui Santos offensive rebound
  197. Q3 8:54
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  198. Q3 9:03
    Jaylen Brown personal foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
  199. Q3 9:05
    Gui Santos offensive rebound
  200. Q3 9:07
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  201. Q3 9:21
    +2
    Jaylen Brown makes two point jump shot
    98-71
  202. Q3 9:29
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  203. Q3 9:30
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  204. Q3 9:32
    Pat Spencer offensive rebound
  205. Q3 9:35
    Derrick White blocks Pat Spencer's two point jump shot
  206. Q3 9:50
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    95-61
  207. Q3 9:53
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  208. Q3 9:55
    Warriors misses two point jump shot
  209. Q3 10:19
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    78-54
  210. Q3 10:34
    Warriors turnover
  211. Q3 10:48
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    95-61
  212. Q3 11:01
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    83-54
  213. Q3 11:11
    Draymond Green defensive rebound
  214. Q3 11:13
    Celtics misses two point jump shot
  215. Q3 11:35
    Celtics defensive rebound
  216. Q3 11:35
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  217. Q3 11:38
    Warriors misses three point jump shot
  218. Q3 11:44
    Celtics turnover
  219. Q2 00:00
    Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
  220. Q2 00:00
    Warriors offensive rebound
  221. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  222. Q3 12:00
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Baylor Scheierman)
  223. Q3 12:00
    Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Gui Santos, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, De'Anthony Melton)
  224. Q2 00:02
    +2
    Celtics makes two point jump shot
    89-56
  225. Q2 00:11
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  226. Q2 00:13
    Kristaps Porzingis misses two point turnaround jump shot
  227. Q2 00:35
    +3
    Sam Hauser makes three point jump shot (Payton Pritchard assists)
    89-56
  228. Q2 00:41
    +3
    Warriors makes three point jump shot
    95-61
  229. Q2 00:55
    +3
    Payton Pritchard makes three point jump shot
    89-56
  230. Q2 1:11
    Kristaps Porzingis turnover
  231. Q2 1:25
    +3
    Sam Hauser makes three point jump shot
    89-56
  232. Q2 1:32
    +3
    Kristaps Porzingis makes three point jump shot
    63-48
  233. Q2 1:56
    Derrick White offensive rebound
  234. Q2 1:56
    Celtics lineup change (Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Nikola Vucevic)
  235. Q2 1:56
    Payton Pritchard turnover (traveling)
  236. Q2 1:59
    Nikola Vucevic misses two point jump shot
  237. Q2 2:05
    Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
  238. Q2 2:08
    Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
  239. Q2 2:22
    +3
    Celtics makes three point jump shot
    89-56
  240. Q2 2:35
    +2
    Kristaps Porzingis makes two point jump shot (Al Horford assists)
    89-56
  241. Q2 2:42
    Al Horford defensive rebound
  242. Q2 2:44
    Jaylen Brown misses two point jump shot
  243. Q2 2:59
    +2
    Gui Santos makes two point layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)
    60-43
  244. Q2 6:28
    Celtics 60 second timeout
  245. Q1 3:11
    Warriors turnover
Box Score
Celtics
PosPlayerPts
Warriors
PosPlayerPts

Celtics vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Celtics vs. Warriors
  • Date: Thursday, February 19, 2026
  • Time: 10:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Celtics favored at -6.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 211.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Celtics -210, Warriors +196

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Celtics: 71%
  • Warriors: 29%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Celtics 109-103 Warriors.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Celtics a win probability of 71%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 29%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Celtics are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Chase Center on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Celtics vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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