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Read Article Heat vs. Warriors prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dimers Data
Our Heat vs. Warriors predictions include win probabilities, the latest odds, and player projections.
The Golden State Warriors are favored to beat the Miami Heat at Chase Center on Thursday (10:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.
Our Heat vs. Warriors prediction gives Golden State a 71.8% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Heat to cover at +6.5.
Heat vs. Warriors key predictions
- Predicted score: Warriors 119-113 Heat
- Warriors win probability: 71.8%
- Heat win probability: 28.2%
- Heat +6.5 spread: 55.0% cover probability
- Under 233.5 points: 51.4% probability
Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.
We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.
Heat vs. Warriors odds
Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.
- Heat moneyline: 30¢ (Novig)
- Warriors moneyline: 70¢ (Polymarket)
- Heat +6.5: 49¢ (Novig)
- Warriors -6.5: 52¢ (Novig)
- Over 233.5 points: 49¢ (Polymarket)
- Under 233.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)
Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.
Heat vs. Warriors pick: Heat +6.5 (49¢)
Our model makes the Warriors the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Heat to cover the +6.5 spread at 49¢ on Novig.
Those odds give the Heat an implied cover probability of 48.5%, while our model puts it at 55.0%.
That's a 6.5% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.
Heat vs. Warriors player projections
Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.
Warriors star Stephen Curry leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 28.7 points, plus 5.0 assists and 3.8 rebounds. The Warriors have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Heat's two.
Top 5 projected scorers
- Stephen Curry (Warriors): 28.7 points
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 28.2
- Bam Adebayo (Heat): 21.4
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors): 20.7
- Brandin Podziemski (Warriors): 17.6
Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.
Get every Heat vs. Warriors prediction with Dimers Pro
Dimers Pro members get full access to our Heat vs. Warriors predictions, including:
- Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
- Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
- Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks
Heat vs. Warriors game details
- Matchup: Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center
About this prediction
This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.
Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Dimers Data Dimers Data publishes sports predictions and betting insights powered by Dimers' proprietary predictive models. The team develops and maintains the automated publishing systems used to deliver consistent, data-driven coverage across major sports.
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